New Tradesports rankings

[J. J.]

Now, sell Romney.  Buy McCain.

[Mr. Morden]

The exit polls from SC have McCain slightly ahead, leading him to surge on Intrade in the SC primary market up to 70%.

[© tweed]

McCain at 48.0 to win Republican nomination, 82.0 to win SC

[Mr. Morden]

Hucka-collapse in GOP nom. market:

McCain 48.6
Romney 20.9
Giuliani 19.4
Huckabee 7.1

[Mr. Morden]

And now McCain surges to 52.0 to win GOP nom.

[Sam Spade]

Should've listened to JJ again.  Of course, first I have to get an account there.

[© tweed]

And now McCain surges to 52.0 to win GOP nom.

first GOP transaction above 50 since McCain in early January 2007.

[Reignman]

Crazy. I doubt even a loss in Florida could stop McCain, which would be highly unlikely IMHO if he wins South Carolina.

[J. J.]

Should've listened to JJ again.  Of course, first I have to get an account there.

When J. J. talks, people listen.

[Sam Spade]

Should've listened to JJ again.  Of course, first I have to get an account there.

When J. J. talks, people listen.

Of course I listen, and everyone should listen, but I suspect McCain's final margin will be closer to mine than yours. 

[© tweed]

Dem Nevada market is going a little apesh**t, for whatever reason

[Mr. Morden]

McCain passes Obama in winning individual:

Clinton 41.2
McCain 22.0
Obama 17.2
Giuliani 7.2
Romney 6.2
Huckabee 3.9
Bloomberg 1.9

[J. J.]

Should've listened to JJ again.  Of course, first I have to get an account there.

When J. J. talks, people listen.

Of course I listen, and everyone should listen, but I suspect McCain's final margin will be closer to mine than yours. 

90% in, it's at 3%.  So far, I'm 1.5% off my midpoint.   We'll see.

[Sam Spade]

Should've listened to JJ again.  Of course, first I have to get an account there.

When J. J. talks, people listen.

Of course I listen, and everyone should listen, but I suspect McCain's final margin will be closer to mine than yours. 

90% in, it's at 3%.  So far, I'm 1.5% off my midpoint.   We'll see.

Problem is half of the results left will be from Horry County... 

[J. J.]

Should've listened to JJ again.  Of course, first I have to get an account there.

When J. J. talks, people listen.

Of course I listen, and everyone should listen, but I suspect McCain's final margin will be closer to mine than yours. 

90% in, it's at 3%.  So far, I'm 1.5% off my midpoint.   We'll see.

Problem is half of the results left will be from Horry County... 

97% in with a 3% lead.  Accolades now?

[Sam Spade]

Should've listened to JJ again.  Of course, first I have to get an account there.

When J. J. talks, people listen.

Of course I listen, and everyone should listen, but I suspect McCain's final margin will be closer to mine than yours. 

90% in, it's at 3%.  So far, I'm 1.5% off my midpoint.   We'll see.

Problem is half of the results left will be from Horry County... 

97% in with a 3% lead.  Accolades now?

Well, considering I've gotten everything wrong so far this year (not as bad as ARG however), I'm finally glad to "at least" come close to getting a result right. 

[Mr. Morden]

After some volatility in the last few hours, this is where things have settled for the GOP nomination market, for now:

McCain 53.9
Romney 19.8
Giuliani 16.7
Huckabee 5.6
Paul 1.5
Thompson 0.7

For comparison, here are the numbers from December 2006, as posted in the first post of this thread:

McCain 50.2
Romney 14.0
Giuliani 13.6
Huckabee 9.0
Gingrich 4.5
Brownback 1.8
Rice 1.4
Hagel 1.1
Cheney 0.8
J. Bush 0.7
Pataki 0.6
Allen 0.5
Bloomberg 0.4
Owens 0.3

So honestly, other than non-candidates and dropouts like Gingrich and Brownback dropping down to nothing and adding a few points to the top 3, nothing much has changed in the last 13 months. 

[Verily]

So honestly, other than non-candidates and dropouts like Gingrich and Brownback dropping down to nothing and adding a few points to the top 3, nothing much has changed in the last 13 months. 

Of course

I guess now I can brag about predicting back in December 2006 that nothing could possibly stop McCain from winning the Republican nomination

[J. J.]

Short term, I'm going to expect volatility on McCain, but that's the longterm hold. 

Right now, I'd say the bet is Obama in the SC primary.

[Eraserhead]

Buy Obama before next Saturday.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton is now the overwhelming front-runner.

McCain has a huge surge, now over 50%. Almost everyone else, including Romney, go down. Huckabee and Thompson crater. Don't ask me why Condi Rice is given better odds than Fred Thompson.

Nomination
Clinton 66.0
Obama 32.2
Edwards 0.9
Gore 0.9
Richardson 0.1


South Carolina
Obama 79.5
Clinton 25.0
Edwards 1.2

California
Clinton 74.0
Obama 25.0
Edwards 0.1


REPUBLICANS
McCain 52.3
Romney 20.0
Guiliani 18.0
Huckabee 5.6
Paul 1.5
Gingrich 0.5
Rice 0.5
Thompson 0.4
Gingrich 0.5
Bloomberg 0.1

Florida
McCain 50.1
Guiliani 28.0
Romney 16.4
Huckabee 6.6 (Field)
Thompson 0.2

California
McCain 65.0
Guiliani 18.0
Romney 15.0
Huckabee 3.5 (Field)
Thompson 1.1

[Mr. Morden]

Honestly, Romney should be higher than Giuliani in the market for winning Florida.  Giuliani has been just managing to keep up with the rest of the pack in the recent polls there, despite the fact that he's been campaigning in the state all by himself.  Now the rest of the field will be joining him there, including McCain, who's got a head of steam coming off of SC.  Romney at least has the ability to throw tons of $ at the state (as we've seen he can do in big, expensive states like MI).

[© tweed]

Romney surge to 27.5.  McCain hovering around a coin-flip. 

[© tweed]

IEM

Clinton 63.3
Obama 33.0
Edwards 1.9
Rest of Field 1.0

McCain 48.5
Romney 27.6
Giuliani 15.1
Huckabee 5.4
Rest of Field 1.3
Thompson 0.7

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Not that much movement on the Democratic side.

Romney gains, while Huckabee craters.

Nomination
Clinton 66.0
Obama 33.0
Edwards 1.0
Gore 0.9
Richardson 0.1


South Carolina
Obama 79.5
Clinton 25.0
Edwards 1.2

California
Clinton 75.0
Obama 25.0
Edwards 0.1


REPUBLICANS
McCain 51.4
Romney 25.2
Guiliani 17.7
Huckabee 3.2
Paul 1.8
Rice 0.7
Thompson 0.4
Gingrich 0.3

Florida
McCain 45.1
Romney 32.8
Romney 18.0
Huckabee 2.0 (Field)

California
McCain 60.0
Romney 20.0
Giuiiani 15.1
Huckabee 4.0 (Field)
Thompson 0.5