New Tradesports rankings

[J. J.]

If McCain drops below 48, buy.

[© tweed]

IEM prices last midnight

Clinton 64.3
Obama 33.7
Edwards 1.1
Rest of Field 1.0


McCain 52.5
Romney 30.1
Giuliani 14.3
Huckabee 3.1
Rest of Field 1.4
Thompson 0.3

[J. J.]

What the Romney odds in Florida?

I have an uneasy feeling.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney's now above 50% to win Florida:

Romney 51.0
McCain 39.9
Giuliani 11.1

He's also up to 40% to win California, though it's probably temporary, since the numbers add up to well over 100%.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney surge continues and Giuliani crashes down to his lowest level since mid-2006 for the nomination:

McCain 50.0
Romney 33.4
Giuliani 10.0
Huckabee 3.1

[MarkWarner08]

IEM prices last midnight

Clinton 64.3
Obama 33.7
Edwards 1.1
Rest of Field 1.0


McCain 52.5
Romney 30.1
Giuliani 14.3
Huckabee 3.1
Rest of Field 1.4
Thompson 0.3

Will Obama reach 40 if he wins by double digits in SC?

[J. J.]

Romney surge continues and Giuliani crashes down to his lowest level since mid-2006 for the nomination:

McCain 50.0
Romney 33.4
Giuliani 10.0
Huckabee 3.1

If McCain drops below 49%, buy.

[The Mikado]

Sigh...now that my man Huckabee (the only person with the potential to destroy the Republican Party) is essentially out of it...time for the second best option.

MITTENS!
MITTENS!
MITTENS!

[Mr. Morden]

Another all time high for Romney to win the nomination:

McCain 49.6
Romney 36.5
Giuliani 10.5
Huckabee 3.0

Odds of dropping out by the end of the month:

Huckabee 12.5
Edwards 10.5
Giuliani 10.0

[© tweed]

IEM last night

McCain 47.6 (-4.9)
Romney 37.7 (+7.6)
Giuliani 9.4 (-4.9)
Huckabee 2.6 (-0.5)
Rest of Field 1.7 (+0.3)
Thompson 0.2 (-0.1)

Clinton 64.0 (-0.3)
Obama 33.7 (nc)
Edwards 1.1 (nc)
Rest of Field 0.8 (-0.2)

[MarkWarner08]

IEM last night

McCain 47.6 (-4.9)
Romney 37.7 (+7.6)
Giuliani 9.4 (-4.9)
Huckabee 2.6 (-0.5)
Rest of Field 1.7 (+0.3)
Thompson 0.2 (-0.1)

Clinton 64.0 (-0.3)
Obama 33.7 (nc)
Edwards 1.1 (nc)
Rest of Field 0.8 (-0.2)

Looks like some folks are buying Romney...

[J. J.]

Long term, nomination, start buying McCain.

[Mr. Morden]

Giuliani now down to single digits in the GOP nomination market (which is not quite an all time low for him, but at least his lowest point since May 2006):

McCain 49.9
Romney 36.4
Giuliani 8.7
Huckabee 3.0

He's also at an all time low in winning individual:

Clinton 46.1
McCain 18.2
Obama 16.2
Romney 11.5
Giuliani 4.2
Bloomberg 2.5

He's also at 83.5 to drop out by the end of February, but still at 20.0 to win the PA primary in April.  I guess those Pennsylvanians must love him so much that they'd considering voting for him months after he drops out. 

[© tweed]

IEM

Clinton 63.8 (-0.2)
Obama 34.8 (+1.1)
Edwards 1.7 (+0.6)
Rest of Field 0.7 (-0.1)


McCain 47.3 (-0.3)
Romney 38.4 (+0.7)
Giuliani 7.7 (-1.7)
Huckabee 3.8 (+1.2)
Rest of Field 1.7 (0)
Thompson 0.3 (+0.1)

[Eraserhead]

Hopefully Obama will hit 40 tonight.

[Reignman]

Given how big the margin of victory may be, that's definitely not a stretch.

[J. J.]

Long term, buy Clinton and McCain.

[Sam Spade]

Long term, buy Clinton and McCain.

After tonight may be a good time to buy Clinton again, actually.

[J. J.]

Long term, buy Clinton and McCain.

After tonight may be a good time to buy Clinton again, actually.

That's what I'm suggesting.

[Verily]

Long term, buy Clinton and McCain.

After tonight may be a good time to buy Clinton again, actually.

That's what I'm suggesting.

Probably not; prices have hardly shifted at all on Intrade.

[MarkWarner08]

Long term, buy Clinton and McCain.

After tonight may be a good time to buy Clinton again, actually.

That's what I'm suggesting.

How high will McCain's stock go if he wins in FL? If it's still below 65, I'd make a heavy bet in his favor.

[J. J.]

Long term, buy Clinton and McCain.

After tonight may be a good time to buy Clinton again, actually.

That's what I'm suggesting.

How high will McCain's stock go if he wins in FL? If it's still below 65, I'd make a heavy bet in his favor.

I espect to be above 85% by 2/7.

[Verily]

Long term, buy Clinton and McCain.

After tonight may be a good time to buy Clinton again, actually.

That's what I'm suggesting.

How high will McCain's stock go if he wins in FL? If it's still below 65, I'd make a heavy bet in his favor.

If McCain is below 90 after winning Florida, bet on him.

[J. J.]

Long term, buy Clinton and McCain.

After tonight may be a good time to buy Clinton again, actually.

That's what I'm suggesting.

How high will McCain's stock go if he wins in FL? If it's still below 65, I'd make a heavy bet in his favor.

I would expect it to be below 65, but it might jump from 48 to 58.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Long term, buy Clinton and McCain.

After tonight may be a good time to buy Clinton again, actually.

That's what I'm suggesting.

How high will McCain's stock go if he wins in FL? If it's still below 65, I'd make a heavy bet in his favor.

My favorite play here is buying McCain to win the Presidency.  You can get in cheap, usually under 20.  In a Clinton/McCain race, I think McCain has a better than 40% shot at winning.