Australian Federal Election - Results Thread

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Longest serving MP to lose (probably; it's on 50.6 with 68% counted) is Arch Bevis, who'd held the division of Brisbane since 1990. Basically a victim of boundary changes.

Nope; ABC seem to have uncalled it. 2PP is currently 50.2 and primaries are Lib 45.6, ALP 31.2, Green 20.9.
The other two seats currently listed as too close to call (Labor having edged further ahead in Greenway and the Liberals in Hasluck) are Corangamite (ALP 50.0) and Lindsay (ALP 50.2). Labor are (just about) ahead on primaries in the latter. I think that's a seat where the Greenies didn't go along with the preference deal; if it is lost, that'll be why.

But if the usual pattern doth repeat, then seats shall be added and seats shall be removed from the list as the days roll on. And because the ALP appears to have been more serious about postal votes than normal, we can't make the traditional assumptions.

===

Something to reflect on again; the massive difference between Greater Sydney and the rest of NSW. Is the state government especially unpopular in the city, or is that the immigration issue at work?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Greenies came second in Batman, meaning that it loses it's traditional position in the list of the ultra-safe. But at 58/42, the next Melbourne it isn't. The figures in Grayndler are 51.6/48.4 and Labor are very lucky that the Greens haven't overtaken the Liberals in the division of Sydney.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Oh dear. Things just get more and more mindlessly complicated. It appears that the (presumably! hopefully! Lord willing!) National victor and Nazi-slayer in O'Connor will not sit as a Coalition MP...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there any kind of general pattern in the swings? It seems like Sydney urban swung much more to the right than rural NSW, but are there are any other noticeable sociological-demographic patterns in swings elsewhere?

There had been an assumption that the badness in Sydney would be especially bad in western Sydney (various shades of working class, often immigrants further in, often actually quite well off further out), but while the swings there have been rather large, Labor has also done dreadfully in most of the rest of the city with a massive (relatively) loss of support to the Greens in some posh areas. Labor nearly came third in Bradfield and Wentworth.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A little crude, but until the postals are all done its better that way. Confusion over Denison and Grayndler (ABC have for some reason switched it back to ALP-Lib) has resulted in some seriously dodgy stripes. Note that in Batman (the lighter of the dark red seats north of the division of Melbourne) the Greens are placed second. O'Connor is a Nat-Lib fight and has been coloured the darkest Coalition shade. Independents are just in dark grey.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Minority governments at state level (and there have been a lot of those over the past two decades) have often been quite stable.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The last Liberal leader who did not win an election and who stayed as Liberal leader for the next election was Robert Menzies in the mid 1940s. Labor sometimes keep defeated leaders for a while, though it depends on factional maths and such things.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Windsor hasn't been a National for twenty years.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Witter elsewhere please.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Democratic Labor Party that elected a Senator today isn't the same one as the group that allowed the Liberals to recieve the votes of Catholic workers back in the day, is it?

It's a re-founded DLP. Re-grouped Groupers. Haha.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ABC lists the following as 'doubtful': Brisbane, Boothby and Hasluck. The margins in the first two seem a little high to be overturned (though stranger things have happened), but the last looks up in the air.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So they've called Coramangite now?

The previous projection would have been based - in part - on how well the incumbent Liberal did with postal votes in 2007.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Am I wrong in thinking that this result would have been different had that nasty bit of political regicide not taken place?

EDIT: I mean, of course it would have been different, but would it have been worse for the ALP? Better? I'm largely ignorant of Australian politics, I have to admit.

Rudd was pretty unpopular at the time of his fall. I suspect that Labor would have done a bit better in Queensland (polls at the close of his premiership seem to suggest otherwise, but let's be generous), but would have been at risk of a wipe out in Western Australia, would not have made net gains in Victoria and the slump in support in Sydney would have turned into heavy losses in terms of seats.
But that's just my opinion.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

This is fun... 2PP results by metropolitan and non-metropolitan divisions. Call it a game of spot the odd one out...

National

Metropolitan: ALP 52.9
Non-Metropolitan: ALP 47.2

NSW

Metropolitan: ALP 49.0
Non-Metropolitan: ALP 50.5

Victoria

Metropolitan: ALP 59.6
Non-Metropolitan: ALP 46.7

Queensland

Metropolitan: ALP 48.8
Non-Metropolitan: ALP 42.6

Western Australia

Metropolitan: ALP 45.9
Non-Metropolitan: ALP 39.1

South Australia

Metropolitan: ALP 58.3
Non-Metropolitan: ALP 45.4

Tasmania

Metropolitan: ALP 63.5
Non-Metropolitan: ALP 59.2

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So anyone willing to tell me what exactly happened in Melbourne? Why go against the trend (other than Gillard home city advantage - what else?)?

Well, the trend was largely set by the large swings in Queensland and in Sydney, which were in part a backlash against unpopular-to-hated state governments and in part due to the ever-noxious refugee issue (massive, massive over-simplification). Neither factor applied in Victoria.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

House:

Lyne: Ind 47.1, Nat 35.0, ALP 13.9 (Ind 62 2PP)
New England: Ind 62.3, Nat 25.2, ALP 8.0 (Ind 71.6 2PP)
Kennedy: Ind 47.2, LNP 26.0, ALP 21.5 (Ind 68.7 2PP)

Senate:

Lyne: LNP 45.9, ALP 30.5, Greens 8.1, Shooters & Fishers 3.8
New England: LNP 42.9, ALP 29.5, Greens 7.0, Shooters & Fishers 6.1
Kennedy: LNP 40.7, ALP 27.2, Greens, 6.2, Shooters & Fishers 4.2

Conclusion: none will lose their seats for backing either party.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ABC list the following seats as being 'in doubt'...

Denison - ALP 50.6
Hasluck - Lib 50.3
Boothby - Lib 50.4
Dunkley - Lib 50.4

Brisbane has been called (again) for the Coalition.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It seems that Albanese has nothing to worry about in Grayndler; Liberal preferences aren't going overwhelming to the Greens. Current AEC and ABC figures both show 55% ALP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

At least that sort of thing gets found out in Australia. There have been cases in Britain where that's happened and it's been too late to do anything about it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

First set of maps using a 'proper' key. I probably won't do another leaders map (for the House) until the results are basically final (barring laughably tight races leading to court cases and so on).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Leading party by division, Senate elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Lingiari?

Not sure; might be issues with which areas have been counted and which haven't, or it might be Snowdon's personal appeal to white voters.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Melbourne Ports?? Griffith? Perth?

I'm guessing this is leading on first preferences, and these inner-urban seats are being lead by the coalition due to large Greens votes?

Yeah, these are first preferences as that's all the AEC publishes for Senate elections at divisional level.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Primary vote by party - as things stand now, anyway (not that much ought to change)





As always, bigger versions be on the gallery. More detailed maps are possible at some point in the future, but there's no point for now. Senate vote maps (when done) will use a different key, I think.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Trying to work out which parties to do maps of - and where of, actually - wrt the Senate elections.

ALP, Coalition, Greens - everywhere, obviously. If the WA Nats ran on their own (did they?) might be worth doing them on their own.
Family First - they did well enough in three states to justify doing most places, probably. Unless the patterns are really dull elsewhere.
Sex Party - they seemed to have polled around about 2% just about everywhere. Unless I spot some variation when I check a couple more divisions later, I don't think I'll bother.
Shooters & Fishers - a very marked geographical pattern of support (noted when checking the results in the three rural indy seats) means that it probably makes sense to do them for most areas. If only for amusement in urban areas.
Liberal Democrats - not checked for any patterns yet; I would assume that there probably are some though.
DLP - Victoria, obviously. I'm not sure if elsewhere makes sense, but I'm mildly amused at the idea of tracking the support pattern of re-grouped groupers.
Christian Democrats - presumably this would show up a particular nutter demographic quite well, so, yeah. Will do where things look interesting.
Democrats - not sure if I see the point.

Comments welcome.