Maine and Rhode Island

[Meeker]

Two unrelated questions about these races I'm going to throw in the same thread:

- What's next for Cutler? He very nearly won last Tuesday, but it appears that was mostly due to Democrats figuring out that Mitchell couldn't win (thus her massive drop compared to the polling). Do you think he might be able to do so again or was this a one-time thing where he got lucky?

- What happened here? The final results look basically like the polling if you switch the numbers for the Democrat and Republican. What happened to Caprio's voters? One might think his Obama gaffe towards the end may have been what killed him but that wouldn't shift votes from him to the Republican which is what it appears happened judging by the polling alone. Unless there was some sort of simultaneous two-way shift of Caprio voters to Chaffee and then Chaffee's voters went to the Republican. But why would that have happened? Or was the fact that the polling got Chaffee's vote so dead-on just a coincidence and the Republican had actually be underpolling the entire time? Maybe a combination of these two explanations?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The Republicans had some odd moments of strength in Rhode Island; the incumbent Secretary of State only won re-election by less than 4,000 votes. None of the other statewide Republicans broke 40%.

My guess is that Democrats split between Chafee and Caprio, Republicans went mostly for Robitaille, and Independents split between Chafee and Robitaille.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Those two elections were really interesting, and their results are too. For both, I indeed wonder what has happened. You could add Colorado, another funny three-way race even though Hickenlooper was almost assured to win.

[Meeker]

Cutler made some comments that had Maine not had early voting he would've won: http://www.seacoastonline.com/articles/20101107-NEWS-11070331

I tend to agree.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Cutler made some comments that had Maine not had early voting he would've won: http://www.seacoastonline.com/articles/20101107-NEWS-11070331

I tend to agree.

More important, he would have won if governors were elected through a half-decent system like IRV.

[Verily]

Cutler will probably fade away like other failed independent candidates in Maine (cf. Barbara Merrill, 2006's independent-du-jour). He might try to run for State Senate or something in 2012, though, to keep himself relevant for a 2014 run. But, unless the Democrats nominate someone terrible again (unlikely given how unpopular LePage will almost certainly make himself), Cutler won't have the same opportunity he did this year. If only he'd racheted up his campaign a week earlier. (Barbara Merrill said the same, only she needed two extra weeks.)

[Lunar]

- What happened here? The final results look basically like the polling if you switch the numbers for the Democrat and Republican. What happened to Caprio's voters? One might think his Obama gaffe towards the end may have been what killed him but that wouldn't shift votes from him to the Republican which is what it appears happened judging by the polling alone. Unless there was some sort of simultaneous two-way shift of Caprio voters to Chaffee and then Chaffee's voters went to the Republican. But why would that have happened? Or was the fact that the polling got Chaffee's vote so dead-on just a coincidence and the Republican had actually be underpolling the entire time? Maybe a combination of these two explanations?

I think you are trying to make this too complicated.  In a heated three-way race, if one of the top two candidates collapse, the relatively unknown 3rd guy receives those votes by default.  The ideological triangulation you're trying to do may not be the best model to explain the results?

I dunno, just spitballing here.  I was a junkie on both these races fwiw.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

why did Mitchell crash so hard at the end?

[Meeker]

why did Mitchell crash so hard at the end?

Her voters figured out that Cutler was the only candidate who could beat LePage.

[bgwah]

Speaking of RI, how did the "Moderate Party" candidate get 6.47%?

[RI]

Speaking of RI, how did the "Moderate Party" candidate get 6.47%?

The Moderate Party candidate got 14.36% in the Rhode Island Attorney General race. Two more independents got 9.62% and 3.96% in that race as well. The Cool Moose Party got 39.15% in the RI Lt Governor race (there was not a Republican in the race though) and won Bristol County.

It was just an anti-two main parties year in Rhode Island.

[Lunar]

Speaking of RI, how did the "Moderate Party" candidate get 6.47%?

Self funder trying to start his own party,

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

why did Mitchell crash so hard at the end?

Her voters figured out that Cutler was the only candidate who could beat LePage.

 Mitchell was polling at 2-3x Cutler. once Cutler advanced in the polling beyond Mitchell, electability against LePage could be a key factor, but the question still remains what happened to lead Cutler into the position of the more viable opponent.

[Lunar]

why did Mitchell crash so hard at the end?

Her voters figured out that Cutler was the only candidate who could beat LePage.

 Mitchell was polling at 2-3x Cutler. once Cutler advanced in the polling beyond Mitchell, electability against LePage could be a key factor, but the question still remains what happened to lead Cutler into the position of the more viable opponent.

One campaign sizzles, another has momentum, and there was a feeling of the race shifting directions against LePage once LePage had a week of terrible gaffes (one where he stormed out of his own press conference screaming).


3rd party candidacies don't necessarily require earthquakes in states like Maine

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

why did Mitchell crash so hard at the end?

Her voters figured out that Cutler was the only candidate who could beat LePage.

 Mitchell was polling at 2-3x Cutler. once Cutler advanced in the polling beyond Mitchell, electability against LePage could be a key factor, but the question still remains what happened to lead Cutler into the position of the more viable opponent.

One campaign sizzles, another has momentum, and there was a feeling of the race shifting directions against LePage once LePage had a week of terrible gaffes (one where he stormed out of his own press conference screaming).


3rd party candidacies don't necessarily require earthquakes in states like Maine

if the sense of LePage losing ground gave Cutler a significant advantage, that suggests two things 1. movement of some LePage supporters toward Cutler, and 2. many who were supporting Mitchell in order to oppose LePage went back to Cutler, whom they may have actually been their favorite for some time.

[Lunar]

That would be the conclusion that I would draw from Maine, yes.