Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[The Other Castro]

Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk  
Early returns in Sedgwick County show strongest Trump precincts coming in weaker for Estes. Strongest Clinton stronger for Thompson. #KS04

Ryan Struyk‏ @ryanstruyk
GO - Trump 68%, Estes 56%
DB42 - Trump 67%, Estes 57%
410 - Trump 67%, Estes 49%
GY01 - Trump 70%, Estes 53%
531 - Trump 67%, Estes 53%

Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk
Some core Dem precincts in Wichita, still very early:
116 - Clinton 89%, Thomp 97%
117 - Clinton 90%, Thomp 98%
118 - Clinton 82%, Thomp 94%

[The Other Castro]

Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk
Precinct 607 in NW downtown Wichita so far:

2016: Clinton 57%, Trump 31%

Early return today in #KS04: Thompson 85%, Estes 15%

[The Other Castro]

Edwards going 74-24 for Estes, with 9/15 in.

79-16 Trump

And the county is <1% of the district.

[The Other Castro]

Lol

Ryan Struyk @ryanstruyk  1h1 hour ago
In Mulvane, one of those crucial small towns near Wichita for Estes. Trump won 65-25% in November. Estes is BEHIND 64-36% in early returns.

[The Other Castro]

Decision Desk HQ‏ @DecisionDeskHQ
Thompson won early votes in Harvey 1043 to 703

[The Other Castro]

More votes coming in from Sedgwick. Now:

James A. Thompson             ......   17189 / 59%
Chris Rockhold                ......     430 /  1%
Ron Estes                     ......   11397 / 39%

[The Other Castro]

(((Harry Enten)))‏ @ForecasterEnten  1h1 hour ago
Early vote from Sumner County has Estes + 6... Overall, he wants a margin of about 24 from Sumner. Early vote tends to lean Dem.

[The Other Castro]

Nate Cohn‏ @Nate_Cohn  
In done precincts, ev is 39% of total vote in Sedgwick
Estes running a net-27 pts better on eday.
If true, would mean Thompson+8 in Sedgwick

[The Other Castro]

Either way, this is going to be very close. Which means Democrats have already won.

[The Other Castro]

Am I missing something or is everyone missing the fact that Sedgewick appears to be largely out and Thompson is romping there? Even given the Democratic League of early voters, I'm not sure why there's so much pessimism among Democrats right now.

Democrats are pessimistic creatures.

[The Other Castro]

Sedgwick updated, county now:

James A. Thompson             ......   20900 / 57%
Chris Rockhold                ......     559 /  1%
Ron Estes                     ......   15091 / 41%
WRITE-IN                      ......      49 /  0%

[The Other Castro]

Any Democrats disappointed by a loss here should close there eyes for a second and take a breather. This result is fking amazing for Democrats. The kind of overperformance here is outstanding.

[The Other Castro]

Thompson just announced he's running for KS-4 in 2018. Lol.

[The Other Castro]

For results coverage tonight, please follow the main GA-6 thread. I will still post here when I am ready to make a final call on the race, but otherwise coverage will be on the main GA-6 thread.

Then why is this called the results thread if we're not going to talk about results in this thread?

[The Other Castro]

Well, I should have stayed with my first prediction:

Ossoff 47%
Handel 17%
Gray 12%
Hill 11%
Moody 9%
Other 4%

Runoff

Ossoff 52%
Handel 48%

[The Other Castro]

^ Yeah, noticed that for Norman!

Clearly this is a sign that Perriello will win in a squeaker.

[The Other Castro]

Rep. Trey Gowdy (SC-4) is endorsing Tommy Pope.

http://www.thestate.com/news/politics-government/politics-columns-blogs/the-buzz/article148581764.html

[The Other Castro]

Trafalgar Group GOP primary runoff poll: Norman +1

Ralph Norman - 46%
Tommy Pope - 45%

https://www.scribd.com/mobile/document/348061986/SC-05-Trafalgar-Group-May-2017

[The Other Castro]

Don't forget the GA state senate election too Wulfric!

I don't care about that.

Well you should as it would give a good indication to GA-06

It is significantly more R than GA-6.

It could give a good indication of how certain parts of GA-6 may vote.

[The Other Castro]

First numbers from DDHQ:

Ralph Norman (Republican) 51.1%   69
Tommy Pope (Republican)   48.9%   66

[The Other Castro]

DDHQ has these updated numbers with early vote from York County:

Tommy Pope (Republican)    54.0%   366
Ralph Norman (Republican)  46.0%   312

[The Other Castro]

Tommy Pope
6,539   51.9%   
Ralph Norman
6,055   48.1   
37% reporting (132 of 359 precincts)

[The Other Castro]

I think Norman has this.

[The Other Castro]

It's somewhat strange how little attention has been given to SC-5. Yes, it's not likely to be nearly as competitive as GA-6, but it's still on the same day.

[The Other Castro]

It's somewhat strange how little attention has been given to SC-5. Yes, it's not likely to be nearly as competitive as GA-6, but it's still on the same day.

Probably why it hasn't gotten the same attention, no?

I don't expect it to get the same attention, but at least some. KS-4 was somewhat hyped before its election day, while I don't think I've seen anything about SC-5.