Congressional Special Elections Results Thread (OLD, PLEASE UNSTICKY)

[The Other Castro]

Turnout seems like it's going to be very very low.

[The Other Castro]

Obviously this won't happen, but Dems accidentally winning here because everyone forgot about the race would be hilarious.

[The Other Castro]

Sweating like a dog!

[The Other Castro]

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http://www.dailykos.com/story/2017/4/7/1650828/-Shock-upset-in-the-making-GOP-admits-Kansas-should-not-be-in-play-but-Kansas-is-in-play

[The Other Castro]

Final prediction before tomorrow:

Ron Estes (R) - 53%
James Thompson (D) - 44%
Chris Rockhold (L) - 3%

[The Other Castro]

Interesting a Democratic internal from last month had Estes +24

http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/kansas-democratic-congressional-candidate-feuds-with-party

A lot can change in a month, especially in a special congressional election.

[The Other Castro]

I find that R+1 poll pretty suspect, though a single digit race at this point wouldn't be crazy. I expect something around R+10 at the end of the day.

[The Other Castro]

Any reports on turnout?

Not sure on live stuff, but yesterday The Kansas City Star had the Kansas Republican Party Director Clay Barker predict 20% turnout or lower.

One source says:

"I just spoke to a Sedgwick County election official, who described turnout as 'steady, but not overwhelming.'"
https://twitter.com/daviddesola/status/851848885819637761

[The Other Castro]

Useful chart from 538 on importance of KS-4 in context:

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[The Other Castro]

Ryan Struyk‏ @ryanstruyk  4m4 minutes ago
We expect 70%+ of the #KS04 votes to come from Sedgwick County -- home to Wichita. Trump won this county 56-37% in November.

Ryan Struyk‏ @ryanstruyk  3m3 minutes ago
Thompson needs to run up the #KS04 score in downtown Wichita: precincts 105-122, 306-310, 607-609 and 615. Clinton won these 62-28%.

Ryan Struyk‏ @ryanstruyk  2m2 minutes ago
Clinton won these two dozen counties by 8,000+ votes -- a small prize in a district she lost by 76,000. So Thompson needs a turnout spike.

Ryan Struyk‏ @ryanstruyk  1m1 minute ago
What does Estes need in #KS04? Maintain 2016 turnout levels in Wichita suburbs and small surrounding cities in Sedgwick County.

Ryan Struyk‏ @ryanstruyk  24s24 seconds ago
Some Estes precincts I'm watching in #KS04 are 214-228 in the east, 410-425 in the south, 506-539 in the west and 622-623 in the north.

Ryan Struyk‏ @ryanstruyk  2m2 minutes ago
Watch smaller surrounding #KS04 cities, where Trump raked in votes -- like Derby, Afron, Haysville, Morton, Ninnescah, Salem and Sherman.

Ryan Struyk‏ @ryanstruyk  1m1 minute ago
Those Wichita suburban precincts and smaller  cities in Sedgwick County gave Trump almost half his 2016 margin of victory in #KS04.

Ryan Struyk‏ @ryanstruyk  1m1 minute ago
Other counties that matter are Butler, Harvey, Cowley and Sumner -- which account for one in five #KS04 votes. The other 12 are too small.

[The Other Castro]

ALL THE LINKSSSSSS

Sedgwick County results page:
http://www.sedgwickcounty.org/elections/election_results/SpecGen17/index.html

AP results by County:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_county/KS_US_House_0411.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS

KS SoS website results:
http://www.sos.ks.gov/ent/kssos_ent.html

DDHQ results:
https://decisiondeskhq.com/results/kansas-4th-congressional-district-special-election/

[The Other Castro]

If the race is within 10, Thompson is probably winning Sedgwick County.

[The Other Castro]

If the race is within 10, Thompson is probably winning Sedgwick County.

Davis lost by 6 without winning Sedgwick.

Scratch that, reverse it, I meant if Thompson is winning Sedgwick the race is probably within 10.

[The Other Castro]

(((Harry Enten)))@ForecasterEnten
Rough guide of how well Dem will need to do in KS-4 by county to win. Based off 2016 prez vote. *Would be shocking if he comes close to this

[The Other Castro]

^ That doesn't really make sense. Thompson needs to at least come within 2 points in every county to win? There's no reason he needs that in the counties in the district that were >80% Trump.

He clarified:

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten  1h1 hour ago
Let me clarify again (cause I'm being unclear), the center is what you should be looking at. Updated column heads.

[The Other Castro]

So far Thompson leading

Brownback sweating like a dog

Link?!

There isn't any results, he's lying.
http://www.sos.ks.gov/ent/kssos_ent.html

Fake news?

It's a super close race though. Tied in fact. (0-0)

[The Other Castro]

OMG

[The Other Castro]

Decision Desk HQ @DecisionDeskHQ  1h1 hour ago
FIRST RESULTS SEDGWICK (EARLY)
Thompson leads with 14226 to 8563

That's 61-36-1 lololololololol

Obviously it wont stay this way but it's fun while it lasts.

[The Other Castro]

I don't trust DDHQ as far as I can throw them after their incorrect calls in the D Michigan/Missouri Primaries. I'll stick to AP (by county), which does not show anything yet.

It's not just DDHQ, numbers match the Sedgwick County site:

http://www.sedgwickcounty.org/elections/election_results/SpecGen17/index.html

[The Other Castro]

(((Harry Enten)))@ForecasterEnten  1h1 hour ago
Thompson needs to win Sedgwick by like 10 to win the race. He's up over 20 points in early vote. Still very early.

[The Other Castro]

Dave Weigel‏ @daveweigel  1h1 hour ago
Thompson campaign tells me that its #s from Sedgwick County early vote are "higher than expected." #ks04

[The Other Castro]

Tom Bonier‏ @tbonier  1h1 hour ago
Well, wow. It appears Thompson won the EV/AV in Sedgwick 61%-36%, while the turnout was 42% Reg Dems, 44% Reg GOPs. #KS04

[The Other Castro]

Butler County reporting, 54-43 Estes
https://twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/851952864775876613

69-24 Trump; 11% of CD's votes in 2016 - with Sedgwick combined that was 81% of all 2016 votes.

Seems like a good sign, no?

A swing from Trump +45 to Estes +11? Yeah.

[The Other Castro]

(((Harry Enten))) @ForecasterEnten  1h1 hour ago
Early vote from Barber has Estes +27. Should be something like +43 Estes in final results if Estes wants to win.

[The Other Castro]

Estes up 62-35 in Barber's 1st precinct

Barber was 82-13 Trump, so this is a 42-point swing assuming Barber County as a whole is 62-35.

Consistent with the swings with the other counties so far.