It's the economy, stupid
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Author Topic: It's the economy, stupid  (Read 1315 times)
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
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« on: August 05, 2004, 09:36:52 AM »

We're talking about a return to Clintonian levels of unemployment and market growth.

A lot of folks say there's very little movement possible in the polls between now and November, but I think there is a large chuck of voters that base their votes on economy and jobs, and this is a very swingable group.
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MODU
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« Reply #1 on: August 05, 2004, 09:51:04 AM »


It can do nothing but boost Bush's ratings.  
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #2 on: August 05, 2004, 10:35:57 AM »

It'll help a little, but not much .  It would take extremely good or bad economic results for both August and September to significantly affect the vote between now and November. At most a 2 point shift either way is the maximum that will come from economic performance between now and November.
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© tweed
Miamiu1027
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« Reply #3 on: August 05, 2004, 01:19:30 PM »

2-4%
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khirkhib
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« Reply #4 on: August 05, 2004, 02:34:32 PM »

At less than 100 days I don't think it matters much anymore.  Too little too late.  Anything now won't be recognized as a trend.  Maybe it will help Bush in history's consideration though because if more people find employment Bush will be able to avoid the stigma of Herbert Hoover and be remembered as the second president in the history of the US that had more jobs lost than created during their presidenicy.
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muon2
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« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2004, 10:55:45 PM »

At less than 100 days I don't think it matters much anymore.  Too little too late.  Anything now won't be recognized as a trend.  Maybe it will help Bush in history's consideration though because if more people find employment Bush will be able to avoid the stigma of Herbert Hoover and be remembered as the second president in the history of the US that had more jobs lost than created during their presidenicy.
I agree, Bush 41 had the problem of a growing economy in the 3rd quarter of 1992, but it didn't register in Nov. On the other hand, there has been strong growth for the last year, with job growth over the last two months. Bush's campaign is correct to stress that record.

News from the last three months won't help much, but raising awareness on the first half of the year has been shown to be meaningful in November. Statisically a rising economy in the first half of the election year predicts a win for the incumbent party about 3/4 of the time.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
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« Reply #6 on: August 05, 2004, 10:59:35 PM »

How many jobs are we talking?
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