2017 French Presidential Election

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This board has certain rules which are explicitly set out, including the need to "contribute relevant content to the threads" and refraining "do not add any insightful value to the thread and discussion", and as is also explicitly set out, as moderator it is to my discretion how to treat such posts - and sometimes I choose to delete posts, without giving any 'infraction points'. The quality of discussion and analysis on the forum has shamefully collapsed in recent years, and this board is one of the few boards which still retains some level of interesting and relevant intelligent analysis, and I really intend to keep it that way. Ceaseless "Let me tell you how it is done in Austria!" posts are not helpful and contribute nothing to this thread, particularly when there's already an active thread about Austria where such posts would obviously be more than welcome (and please don't pretend that you're doing comparative politics, because that's not what comparative politics is). For that reason, for example, I won't go about making "Let me tell you how it is done in Canada!" posts in a thread about Austria, because posts like that wouldn't add any insightful value to the discussion.

Throwing around your favourite little epithets willy-nilly isn't helpful to anyone here and really doesn't elevate the quality of debate, which isn't very high to begin with on this forum. Nor are little "I can do what I want!" fits.

That's all I will say on this topic. If you wish to discuss it further, you may send me a PM.

Oh, thank you.

Anyway those post-debate poll numbers look pretty good for Macron. I saw a few "debate highlights" and he looked convincing when he attacked Le Pen.

On an unrelated matter: is there a period before elections when polls are forbidden (for instance in Italy it's the two weeks before election day)?
If Hamon were to remain at more than 10% points from the run-off just before the first round, he could bleed even more voters to Macron.

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Seems like Lassalle is managing to get some attention, though.

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The left always comes out on the losing side from such scenarios.
So, if anything, I am getting more afraid by the day of a Le Pen- Fillon runoff.

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At this point what really matters IMO is to see:
- if Macron's vote share will hold after yesterday's attack, and in general if he is able to solidify the remaining 25% of soft supporters
 - how much Le Pen will gain. This attack will also make it harder to judge the polls' reliability on Le Pen's numbers, since any differential with respect to the poll average could be then attributed to the Paris terrorist attack.
- if Fillon is able to gain from Dupont-Aignan, Le Pen and even Macron, going over 20% and putting Macron's place in the second round at risk
- if Melenchon's supporters who have been attracted to his candidacy only in the last month will stick with him until the end
- if Hamon further collapses (as the latest polls seem to suggest), and in that case how much of this support goes to Melenchon and how much to Macron
- if the small leftish candidates keep their 1/2%, or if it goes to Melenchon

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Last Ifop update (1/3 post-terror attack)

Macron: 24.5% (+0.5)
Le Pen: 22.5 (=)
Fillon: 19.5% (=)
Mélenchon: 18.5% (=)
Hamon: 7% (=)
Dupont-Aignan: 4% (=)
Poutou: 1.5% (=)
The others: at 1% or under.

Odoxa, post-terror attack
Macron: 24.5% (-0.5, before the attack)
Le Pen: 23% (+1)
Fillon: 19% (-0.5)
Mélenchon: 19% (-0.5)
Hamon: 7.5% (+1.5)
Dupont-Aignan: 4.5% (+0.5)
The others at 1% or under.

No impact so far after the terror attack

If Dupont-Aignan somehow passes Hamon, it would be hilarious. Hilarious and sad.

I'm way more worried about him collapsing in favour of Fillon.