Predict how SCOTUS rules on gay marriage

[Thomas D]

I don't want to start another topic for this, so I'll put this here.

What are the odds the Court hands down both decisions on the same day? And if not which one should go first?

[Thomas D]

Option 5 by a 6-3 vote.

[Thomas D]

I would rather win today then tomorrow.

[Thomas D]

I would rather win today then tomorrow.

What about the moral quality of the win? Winning through the vote of the people or of their elected representatives is infinitely better than winning through the dictate of a bunch of irresponsible, arrogant and omnipotent judges appointed for life.

So gay people in Alabama & Utah have to wait 20 years for equal rights so we can have a 'pure' victory?  

Laws that ban Gay Marriage violate the equal protection clause of the 14th amendment. That is true toady and will be true in 20 years. So lets get rid of all these laws now.

[Thomas D]

Okay everyone, don't foget to leave a plate of raindow cookies out for gay Santa tonight.

Hmm.. That made more sense in my head...oh well.

[Thomas D]

When does the Supreme Court's Term end?  I assume that's the day we'll find out about all of this. I've seen conflicting information and I'd like to take off work on that day.

[Thomas D]

I know the Court isn't supposed to be effected by the news of the day. But as they watch 3 states legalize marriage equality in the span of two weeks I could see them having 2 thoughts:

1. The states are doing fine with this on their own. We don't need to issue a far reaching ruling.

2. We can't have a checkerboard map on this issue. We have to go with the 50 state solution.

[Thomas D]

Could be the best gay pride month ever.

[Thomas D]

So if it's up to the Feds wouldn't that just mean it's up to whoever happens to be President at that time?

[Thomas D]

Which is why the more I think about it the more I think we're going to get a far reaching ruling.

Kennedy knows what a moderate ruling would mean. It would mean a lot of confusion and it would mean having to hear the same kinds of cases with the same kinds of arguments in 3 years.

I truly think at some point, and it's probably already happened, Kennedy is going to say to himself: " We all know how this story is going to end. It's just a matter of if it happens in 2013 or 2017 or 2025. So I'll just join with the 4 liberals, sign off on the Equal Protection argument, bring along Roberts and be done with all of this."

Maybe I'm being foolishly optimistic. But I really thing that's how this will end in 3 weeks.

[Thomas D]

Going back to the issue of timing. There are 4 big cases left. Voting rights, Affirmative action and the Marriage twins. If we don't get a ruling on the first 2 next week I think that means we'll get one next week, the other on Mon. 24. and that would put Marriage on Thur. 27.

[Thomas D]

Thursday June 27 it is I guess. Stonewall anniversary. Could be a nice bookend.

[Thomas D]

Thursday June 27 it is I guess. Stonewall anniversary. Could be a nice bookend.

I don't think the Court appreciates symbolism of this kind.

One of them might.

[Thomas D]

That won't be a problem on my end. What its a mixed outcome and both sides get victories tomorrow?

DOMA gets struck down and Prop 8 gets upheld leaving it to the voters of CA to overturn it in November 2014.

[Thomas D]

I'm sticking with my 50 state prediction. But I'd be happy just to see DOMA go down.

[Thomas D]

Thursday June 27 it is I guess. Stonewall anniversary. Could be a nice bookend.

So it won't be that. It's the 10th anniversary of the Lawrence case though.

[Thomas D]

Well. I got 75% of what I wanted. I'm happy.