Quebec: April 7, 2014

[Hatman 🍁]

I hope you guys aren't confusing what "North Shore" means. In the case of FR, it means everything north of the St. Lawrence outside of the Quebec and Montreal CMAs. It's not inconceivable that the Liberals are ahead there. Now the actual North Shore region (north of Montreal) is a different story.

45% for PLQ in Northern quebec?

If i live in Nunavik (Ungava) I would vote PLQ to defeat PQ

I HOPE Inuit and Cree territory going high vote turnout next month!
I dont want to see them low 28% in Nunavik and 16% in Cree communities......

Ungava is tiny faction of the North Shore region, and the Inuit there don't vote. The riding actually has an Anglo plurality, but votes PQ. What does that tell you?

[Hatman 🍁]

Speaking of Ungava, my projection shows a narrow Liberal win there. Does that seem far fetched at this point, Max? I have the Liberals picking up Abitibi-Est as well.

[Hatman 🍁]

Speaking of Ungava, my projection shows a narrow Liberal win there. Does that seem far fetched at this point, Max? I have the Liberals picking up Abitibi-Est as well.

Abitibi-Est voting Liberal is totally normal if they win. In every election since 1973 (but 2007), it was voted for the winner.

I don't see Liberals winning Ungava. There is no reason for Native turnout to raise dramatically (and from what I gather, they like the fact the PQ government promised money for housing in the North) and the Francophone areas are hardcore PQ.

Liberals had a strong candidate in 2012 (a long-time mayor of Lebel-sur-Quévillon), not this time (a white lawyer of Kuujjuaq). CAQ is presenting the former mayor of an Inuit nordic village, so inuit vote will be lower than usual for Liberals. I'm not seeing it at all.

Thanks. Would you say Ungava is the kind of riding that is more about the strength of individual candidates (more like Nunavut)?

Anyways, here's my week 3 projection map: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2014/03/2014-quebec-provincial-election-week-3.html

It does have Ungava going Liberal though

[Hatman 🍁]

So, the riding is majority aboriginal, and it's plurality anglo and it's gone PQ in every election since its creation in 1981.

[Hatman 🍁]

Chibougamau must be very nationalist.

[Hatman 🍁]

They don't have until Midnight?

[Hatman 🍁]

The question everyone wants to know the answer to: Will the Liberals break 90% in D'Arcy McGee?

Possibly, but I reckon the demographics may have changed too much since they days where they did.

[Hatman 🍁]

They don't have until Midnight?

No, Saturday, 2PM.

Alright, then it's closed.

Candidate totals:
PLQ: 125
PQ: 124
QS: 124
CAQ: 122
ON: 116
PCQ: 60
PVQ: 44

[Hatman 🍁]

Leger has done a massive poll with lots of regional break downs:

Province wide:

PLQ: 40
PQ: 33
CAQ: 15
QS: 9
ON: 1
PVQ: 1
Oth: 1

Regions

Abitibi-Temiscamingue (185)
PQ: 47
PLQ: 24
CAQ: 13
QS: 13
ON: 1
Oth: 2

Outaouais (286)
PLQ: 49
PQ: 26
CAQ: 12
QS: 9
PVQ: 2
Oth: 2

Montreal (374)
PLQ: 50
PQ: 29
QS: 9
CAQ: 7
PVQ: 4
ON: 1

Lanaudiere/Laurentides (290)
PQ: 45
PLQ: 23
CAQ: 23
QS: 7
ON: 1
PVQ: 1
Oth: 1

Laval (294)
PLQ: 53
PQ: 27
CAQ: 13
QS: 6
ON: 1

Mauricie/Centre-du-Quebec (274)
PLQ: 35
PQ: 31
CAQ: 21
QS: 10
ON: 1
Oth: 2

Monteregie (280)
PLQ: 37
PQ: 36
CAQ: 15
QS: 8
ON: 1
Oth: 2

Estrie (282)
PLQ: 38
PQ: 33
CAQ: 13
QS: 13
ON: 1
PVQ: 1
Oth: 1

Chaudiere-Appalaches (285)
PLQ: 44
CAQ: 28
PQ: 21
QS: 5
Oth: 2

Capitale-Nationale (383)
PLQ: 42
PQ: 25
CAQ: 20
QS: 10
ON: 1
Oth: 2

Saguenay-Lac-Saint-Jean/Cote-Nord (269)
PQ: 43
PLQ: 36
CAQ: 11
QS: 9
ON: 1
Oth: 1

Bas-Saint-Laurent/Gaspesie/Iles-de-la-Madeleine (195)
PQ: 46
PLQ: 32
QS: 13
CAQ: 7
Oth: 1

[Hatman 🍁]

Leger has done a massive poll with lots of regional break downs:

Province wide:

PLQ: 40
PQ: 33
CAQ: 15
QS: 9

Regions (from the front of the Journal de Montreal. Sorry, no QS #s)

Abitibi-Temiscamingue
PQ: 47
PLQ: 24
CAQ: 13

Wierd. I suppose than with number like those, PQ would sweep all ridings (despite the huge margin they will rack in Abitibi-Ouest)?

(Just updated to include QS et al). Yes, I think it would be. Weird, but at least it will mean that Ungava wont be red on my map.

Some comments:

For QS, it's a really weak result in Montreal, but some higher than expected numbers in the regions, like 13% in Bas St Laurent-Gaspesie?

Liberal strength in the 450 seems to be concentrated on the south shore, not the north. And in Laval, where they should sweep all the seats with those numbers.

CAQ still strong on the north shore, maybe Legault can save his seat?

Strong Liberal numbers from the usually strong PQ Lac St Jean-Cote Nord region. Couillard must be leading in Roberval.

PQ gains in the Gaspesie (i.e. Bonaventure) in recent elections must be no fluke with the numbers there. 

[Hatman 🍁]

That's not surprising, due to labour's influence in your region (in mining).

[Hatman 🍁]

Re: Couillard running in Roberval: It gives the Liberals one extra seat they wouldn't have won normally, which could mean the difference between a majority or a minority.  Based on my math, and the recent Leger poll in the region, I think Couillard is ahead in his riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, Laviolette is very Liberal. I was wondering why that was?

[Hatman 🍁]

Well, once the NDP runs in the next election, there will be no point for the UCQ.

BTW, why isn't the NDP running at least a paper candidate? I know in some provinces for a party to remain registered they have to run at least one candidate. (Like in Saskatchewan, the Progressive Conservatives still run one or two paper candidates)

[Hatman 🍁]

I divided my model based on the Leger regions, and used just their numbers and got:

PLQ: 67
PQ: 54
CAQ: 3
QS: 1

QS down to 1 seat because they were at 9% in Montreal.

Some surprises: Dubuc going Liberal (maybe possible, but probably just me underestimating Couillard's support in Roberval and that extra support is flowing into the other ridings, which was enough to put the Liberals ahead in Dubuc) and Sherbrooke going Liberal (I might have to thinker with this one to calculate Charest's personal vote in past elections)

[Hatman 🍁]

Finally, a public poll!

[Hatman 🍁]

FR Regional breaks (change since last poll)

Montreal CMA

PLQ: 48 (-1)
PQ: 28 (-2)
CAQ: 14 (+5)
QS: 7 (-2)
PVQ: 2 (n/c)
ON: 1 (+1)
Oth: 1 (n/c)


Quebec City CMA

PLQ: 47 (+1)
CAQ: 27 (+6)
PQ: 17 (-10)
QS: 7 (+3)
PVQ: 1 (+1)
Other: 1 (n/c)


North Shore

PQ: 41 (+6)
PLQ: 34 (-11)
CAQ: 16 (+4)
QS: 6 (n/c)
PVQ: 1 (n/c)
ON: 1 (+1)


South Shore

PLQ: 31 (-7)
PQ: 30 (-6)
CAQ: 25 (+7)
QS: 10 (+6)
ON: 2 (+2)
PVQ: 1 (-2)
Oth: 1 (n/c)

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals are more left than the PQ? Another reason to be happy about a potential Liberal win.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals are more left than the PQ? Another reason to be happy about a potential Liberal win.

This is why I feel so disconnected from provincial politics: don't have anyone to vote for. Was born far too late.

Ehh, you still have the provincial Tories.  Just because they're a fringe party is no reason to not exercise your right to vote.

Anyways, I finally got around to updating my projection (change from Mar 20):

PLQ: 66 (-2)
PQ: 54 (+2)
CAQ: 3
QS: 2

Basically St-Maurice, Ungava and Abitibi-Est flip PQ
Dubuc flips to PLQ

[Hatman 🍁]

'08 all over again.

The polls are remarkably close to the PV in 2008. Good news for CAQ, maybe? Problem is, much of their support is being wasted in the 450 where it's too evenly spread to have them win a seat.  It's possible Legault could win his district, though.

Speaking of leaders, my projection has Marois in trouble. I wonder how realistic that is? The seat did go Liberal before 1994. She only won by 5000 votes in 2012, and the Liberals have a strong lead in Capitale-Nationale.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ipsos Regional breaks:

Quebec City
PLQ: 37 (+10)
PQ: 24 (-6)
CAQ: 24 (-4)
QS: 11 (+3)
ON: 1 (n/c)
Oth: 3 (-3)

Montreal Island
PLQ: 45 (-3)
PQ: 23 (-2)
QS: 19 (+9)
CAQ: 9 (n/c)
ON: 1 (-3)
Oth: 3 (-1)

Montreal suburbs
PQ: 32 (-7)
PLQ: 28 (-5)
CAQ: 22 (+5)
QS: 14 (+5)
ON: 1 (n/c)
Oth: 3 (+2)

Rest of Quebec
PLQ: 39 (+2)
PQ: 28 (-4)
CAQ: 21 (+6)
QS: 10 (-1)
Oth: 1 (-2)
ON: 0 (-2)

BTW, RB - We will be doing a poll too (not sure when we're releasing it though)

[Hatman 🍁]

Are there any reliable stats for how younger people voted in 2012?

Forum Research's last poll before the 2012 election showed for 18-34:

PQ: 37
CAQ: 23
PLQ: 21
QS: 10


Note that they overestimated the PQ overall, and underestimated the Liberals somewhat.

Remember in 2012, the student protests were a big deal, so the younger generation rallied behind the PQ who were seen as defending their interests against the Charest regime.

Fast forward 2 years and the PQ has alienated these voters with the whole charter nonsense.

[Hatman 🍁]

QS got about 13% on the Island in 2012 if memory serves me well. I can get you the numbers later.

If QS is at 19%, one would think that's good enough for at least 4 seats. However, I think the poll is an outlier, as most polls have shown QS doing worse than last time on the island.

[Hatman 🍁]

For lil' Tommy, here are the results from the Island of Montreal in 2012:

PLQ: 44.9%
PQ: 23.9%
CAQ: 15.4%
QS: 11.9%
ON: 1.6%
PVQ: 1.6%
Oth: 0.6%

[Hatman 🍁]

I've inputted the Ipsos poll into my projection model, and I get the same seat totals as last time. I'm still hanging on to the Leger poll, though.