Quebec: April 7, 2014

[Hatman 🍁]

FR poll:

PLQ: 40
PQ: 38
CAQ: 12
QS: 7
PVQ: 2
Oth: 1

Montreal (I assume this is the CMA)
PLQ: 42
PQ: 38
CAQ: 9
QS: 7
PVQ: 3
Oth: 1

Quebec City (CMA?)
PLQ: 46
PQ: 24
CAQ: 22
QS: 5
PVQ: 2

ROQ
PQ: 44
PLQ: 34
CAQ: 12
QS: 7
PVQ: 1
Oth: 1

According to FR, this gives the PQ a one seat majority. I'll run it through my numbers tomorrow.

[Poirot]

More retirements: Breton and Malavoy.

I haven't heard about Daniel Breton. Maybe you mean Daniel Ratthé (Blainville).

He was sitting as independent after being booted from CAQ caucus. He was PQ before switching to CAQ.

Out of the four CAQ ridings in the northern Montreal surburbs from last election, it means only Legault is running again.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, that's who I meant.

[lilTommy]

More retirements: Breton and Malavoy.

I haven't heard about Daniel Breton. Maybe you mean Daniel Ratthé (Blainville).

He was sitting as independent after being booted from CAQ caucus. He was PQ before switching to CAQ.

Out of the four CAQ ridings in the northern Montreal surburbs from last election, it means only Legault is running again.

I thought Breton wasn't running? probably shouldn't though, the guy goes through parties like tissue (Greens, NDP, PQ) and he's got a lot of personal baggage from the alleged intimidation of government employees, the unpaid rent, had been convicted of employment insurance cheating and had speeding violations.
If he's running, QS only lost by about 10% so... ya it will always be a target for them, maybe third time is the charm for Manon Masse

[Hatman 🍁]

Pumping the FR poll into my model I get:

PQ: 65
PLQ: 58
QS: 2
CAQ: 0 (!)

This is due to the huge PLQ lead in Quebec City right now, where CAQ has most of their 'strong' seats.

[Krago]

It could be a slippery slope though, what's next, a Mandarin debate in BC?

You know perfectly well that English and French are official languages in Canada (though only New Brunswick is officially bilingual at the provincial level) - Mandarin has no legal status in canada

That's not what would stop a Mandarin debate.

I would have enjoyed seeing a U.S. Presidential debate in French between John Kerry and Mitt Romney.

[RogueBeaver]

More policy.

Independence would give the government more regulatory power over Enbridge.

Malavoy was eased out, partially due to health reasons.

More candidate news.

Targeted ridings.

The gallery, led by La Presse's Paul Journet, isn't thrilled with Marois' Harper-like approach to media relations. Compares it to les cassettes de Bourassa. My compromised would be more interviews, try befriending those who're interested in exchange for limited pressers. But that's just me. Ironic though for the PQ considering their roster and history.

[RogueBeaver]

PKP was finally convinced to run in St. Jerome.

[Hatman 🍁]

So, Canada's Rupert Murdoch is running for a leftist separatist party? OK

Does he know his media empire rests a lot on anti-Quebec populist sentiment?

[RogueBeaver]

Or as one wag put that, how will Lilley pronounce PKP's name? Best joke of the campaign so far.

[Poirot]

It will be interesting to hear his motivation. If he concentrates on economic development only or also talks about sovereignty and work to show economic viability.

Unions (and probably journalists) don't like him because of long lock outs at his newspapers. I don't know if PQ could lose support from hard pro-union type. If their goal is sovereignty it would help to bring the more pro-business nationalist.

I've read in newsaper that Quebec City talk radio was pushing for Anybody but Marois (telling to vote PLQ to stop PQ). PKP is probably popular with the same radio hosts because he would be the owner of the hockey team if they get one from the NHL. It will probably not change their anti-PQ rhetoric.    

[RogueBeaver]

My guess is he won't do much talking. PQ is aiming for the CAQ vote and ignoring QS.

[RogueBeaver]

Economy, identity, family, holdings in a blind trust, non-committal on the leadership question.

[Hatman 🍁]

My guess is he won't do much talking. PQ is aiming for the CAQ vote and ignoring QS.

True. CAQ collapse is key to winning a majority. I don't see much hemorrhaging to the QS over this. QS wont be winning anything outside the island, and I can't see them picking up more than 2 seats there (if any).

[DC Al Fine]

My guess is he won't do much talking. PQ is aiming for the CAQ vote and ignoring QS.

True. CAQ collapse is key to winning a majority. I don't see much hemorrhaging to the QS over this. QS wont be winning anything outside the island, and I can't see them picking up more than 2 seats there (if any).

Indeed. Barring some major breakthrough, QS's ceiling is 3-4 seats and that would involve major issues with the Liberals & PQ.

[RogueBeaver]

Good cartoon.

FTQ reacts as expected.

[Hatman 🍁]

Aren't the unions in bed with the PQ? What will the do now?

[RogueBeaver]

They've been distant for a while now. FTQ isn't endorsing any party because none share their values.

I'm sure Lisée and Drainville (who hate each other's guts, for leadership and other reasons) are just as thrilled as the FTQ. PKP will be the dauphin, especially since he'll have a very senior economic post (quite possibly Finance itself). So Finance Minister PKP, quite possibly PREMIER PKP in the future. He left the door wide open when asked the leadership question "I'm focused on serving St. Jerome" and even joked that he didn't want to enter politics at 65. Coincidentally, Marois didn't look amused.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'm curious; in what way does a party like QS not share the same views as the FTQ?

[MaxQue]

I'm curious; in what way does a party like QS not share the same views as the FTQ?

QS isn't exactly pro-union either. They prefer local models, cooperatives and the like. They are becoming closer with time (last time, FTQ didn't endorse either, but Montréal-FTQ endorsed QS).

The main issue is their very Montreal, Plateau reputation, which is a not an asset for factory unions in regions.

[Poirot]

Radio-Canada is releasing a poll tonight. The number published so far is about referendum, 39% would vote yes, 61% no.

[RogueBeaver]

That RC/CROP poll is 36/36/17 topline and 27/26/16 MPM.

[RogueBeaver]

42/25 PQ among Francophones.

[DL]

That RC/CROP poll is 36/36/17 topline and 27/26/16 MPM.

The previous CROP poll had the PQ leading by 6 points 40-34 - so this represents quite a dramatic tightening

[RogueBeaver]

Over half the electorate is still persuadable. Marois' problem is that her satisfaction rating is now 37%... needs to raise her ceiling a bit.