Canadian by-elections, 2017 (next event: Calgary-Lougheed, AB prov.: Dec 14)

[adma]

I think it'll be interesting if the NDP *aren't* second place in the byelection.

[adma]

Which is interesting, considering its small population base actually requires huge public subsidies to run programs and the province.  Also much easier to get any small party elected when you have ridings where the winner doesn't even get 1000 votes.

For perspective's sake, PEI would be about the same size as, I dunno, Etobicoke-Lakeshore in its pre-2015 boundaries...

[adma]

It may be phantom signage; but still, in the part of Scarborough-Agincourt I drove through this morning, the NDP seemed to be out-signing the Conservatives. (On that evidence, a sure Liberal hold, I presume.)

[adma]

It could also depend on who the NDP was running last time, what kind of campaign, etc.

Speaking of all that, another dilemma facing the Sask NDP is the lack of a "split in the right": presently, it's the most "binary" province, with Lib and Green totally fringe-marginal or verging on it...

[adma]

Might be a three peat for the Liberals as this was traditionally a Liberal stronghold so I would put money on them retaking it.  That being said it is an urban multicultural riding so unlike the regions of Quebec where the NDP is probably dead in the water, they still might be competitive here.  BQ and Tories are not likely to be a factor and both will just be happy to get their deposits back.

Outremont may be a "traditional Liberal stronghold"; however, much of it *also* happens to be a present-day Quebec Solidaire/Projet Montreal stronghold, which is more than you can say of those "other Quebec regions".  That said, the Liberals will probably try hard to confine that element to its Mile End-ish bulwark while sweeping multiculti Cote-des-Neiges...

[adma]

If Valerie Plante is still in honeymoon mode, her support would be a big boost to whomever runs for the NDP in Outremont (though I could just as well see her being strategically neutral)