The New Iowa Duo

[Maxwell]

I would be utterly shocked if Ernst wins re-election in 2020.      Not just saying that as a liberal either.

I would be utterly shocked if Tillis wins re-election in 2020. He has little political talent and was dragged into office thanks to the wave. Ernst, however, has legitimate political talent, and would've won without the wave (because of her awful opponent, sure).

[Maxwell]

I would be utterly shocked if Ernst wins re-election in 2020.      Not just saying that as a liberal either.

I would be utterly shocked if Tillis wins re-election in 2020. He has little political talent and was dragged into office thanks to the wave. Ernst, however, has legitimate political talent, and would've won without the wave (because of her awful opponent, sure).

No, she really doesn't.  She'd have lost in 2014 if she weren't running against Benedict Bloberta.

Really? A nearly 10% victory in a swing state? She's a solid debater, her ads (which, I admit, thought were awful when they first came out) worked, and managed to win despite being painted as a very very far right conservative and not really shying away from that label. People mention Cotton and Gardner as the two major campaigns that were good from 2014, and I agree with that assessment, but Ernst also ran a very strong campaign. I'm not saying she's unbeatable, absolutely she's beatable. But unlike some GOP incumbents from 2014, I think it's a Toss-Up, not an uphill battle, especially since Iowa is a state with multiple officers with 4+ terms in office.

[Maxwell]

I would be utterly shocked if Ernst wins re-election in 2020.      Not just saying that as a liberal either.

I would be utterly shocked if Tillis wins re-election in 2020. He has little political talent and was dragged into office thanks to the wave. Ernst, however, has legitimate political talent, and would've won without the wave (because of her awful opponent, sure).

No, she really doesn't.  She'd have lost in 2014 if she weren't running against Benedict Bloberta.

Really? A nearly 10% victory in a swing state? She's a solid debater, her ads (which, I admit, thought were awful when they first came out) worked, and managed to win despite being painted as a very very far right conservative and not really shying away from that label. People mention Cotton and Gardner as the two major campaigns that were good from 2014, and I agree with that assessment, but Ernst also ran a very strong campaign. I'm not saying she's unbeatable, absolutely she's beatable. But unlike some GOP incumbents from 2014, I think it's a Toss-Up, not an uphill battle, especially since Iowa is a state with multiple officers with 4+ terms in office.

I agree that it is a toss up, I just hear a lot of Republicans act like she's Chuck Grassley 2.0 and that's ridiculous.  And I'd argue she really didn't run that strong a campaign.

I do agree, but I will point out that Chuck Grassley is fairly conservative and hasn't ever really backed away from that, and yet he's won so many times because of his image.