French Legislative Elections 2012: Hashemite's Guide and Predictions

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In a preview of what I'll be busy doing after June 10, plus a blog post. Official predictions of who will actually win in order to get a prediction by party. Sooooo....
 
French abroad
These predictions are to be taken with a truckload of salt given that turnout will be 15-25% at most, and that you could have weird things going on...
1st: C. Narassiguin (PS); F. Lefebvre (UMP) defeated
2nd: S. Coronado (EELV); don't jump, Fabien.
3rd: A. Lemaire (PS); she's hot
4th: P. Cordery (PS); M-A. Montchamp (UMP) defeated
5th: A. Leroy (PS)
6th: C. Schmid (UMP); l'honneur est sauf pour Johnny!
7th: P-Y. Le Borgn' (PS)
8th: D. Poznanski-Benhamou (PS)
9th: P. Amirshahi (PS)
10th: A. Marsaud (UMP)
11th. T. Mariani (UMP)
 
Prediction: 7 PS, 3 UMP, 1 EELV
 
French Polynesia
1st: E. Fritch (DVD)
2nd: J. Tahuaitu (DVD)
3rd: J-P. Tuaiva (DVD)
 
Prediction: 3 DVD


In overall terms, this moves my prediction totals up to:

Safe left: 210
Left favoured: 40 > 42
Lean left: 28 > 30
Tossup - left edge: 43
Left total: 321 > 325

Pure tossup: 16

Tossup - centre edge: 2

Safe right: 89 > 85
Right favoured: 67 > 66
Lean right: 42 > 43
Tossup - right edge: 40
Right total: 238 > 234

I won't have time or energy to write any more profiles (two all-day meetings at work this week...), but I can certainly justify my predictions or comment briefly on any constituency.

[big bad fab]

BREAKING NEWS !

The FN candidate in Morano's constituency is dead.
The new candidate is his former deputy/substitute.

Don't know if and how it will affect the race.
Maybe Morano may benefit from the lil' mess it might entail.
On the other hand, she has some legal suits pending for diffamation...

Predictions altered ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

8/11 foreign seats for the left ? I can't believe this !

Thank you for all your amazing work. All this will make election day far more entertaining to me.

[big bad fab]

This evening, I'll publish the latest (and big) series of polls on my blog and, honestly, it's pretty good for the PS. After all, my predictions may well be right globally speaking

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I don't know why I read Fredo's latest email, but he's making sure that only dumb people vote for him:

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(lol)

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What a moron.

[Antonio the Sixth]

j'y ai appris à parler et marcher

Wow, good job! Too bad he's never learnt to read.

[big bad fab]

This evening/night, I'll publish the latest (and big) series of polls on my blog.

Again...

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Just voted.



Let's defeat the moron.

[big bad fab]

This evening/night, I'll publish the latest (and big) series of polls on my blog.

Again...

Maybe tomorrow
I've got so many other things to write this night (always my personal problems )

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I present to you the FG candidates in Neuilly-Puteaux:



This FN candidate not only looks like a rapist (like most FN candidates do, but that's another matter), he also has a cool ironic name:

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Also, with a candidate like this, you can't say the UMP hasn't tried appealing to the bobos in Paris' 6th constituency:



Bohbot pour les bobos!

[homelycooking]

This FN candidate not only looks like a rapist (like most FN candidates do, but that's another matter), he also has a cool ironic name:

Is he running somewhere in Alsace?

Also, with a candidate like this, you can't say the UMP hasn't tried appealing to the bobos in Paris' 6th constituency:

What the hell is this? The bold text reads "I am a candidate in the legislative elections" - what a stirring campaign slogan!

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Maginot ran in the Africa/Middle East constituency, perhaps in an attempt by the FN to build a second Maginot line to keep the evil brown people from destroying our Judeo-Christian roots.

On a serious note, I've had the time to do a really mini guide to these elections, including my predictions: http://welections.wordpress.com/2012/06/07/france-legislative-elections-2012-guide/

[big bad fab]

Actually, the "t" in Bohbot isn't muted

He's some of the former loyal troops of Dominati, a former pro-Algérie française piece of crap who headed the second Corsican clan, after the Tiberi, when the right was dying, in 1995-2001...
Dominati was a symbol if these Giscardians coming from the far-right and deep anti-gaullist.

[batmacumba]

This FN candidate not only looks like a rapist (like most FN candidates do, but that's another matter), he also has a cool ironic name:

Is he running somewhere in Alsace?

Also, with a candidate like this, you can't say the UMP hasn't tried appealing to the bobos in Paris' 6th constituency:

What the hell is this? The bold text reads "I am a candidate in the legislative elections" - what a stirring campaign slogan!

Being, his main achievements, rooting for Paris Saint-Germain and fishing the Paris Marathon 5 times, It seems a fitting slogan.

[Antonio the Sixth]

LOL, where did you find all these guys ?

[big bad fab]

This evening/night, I'll publish the latest (and big) series of polls on my blog.

Again...

Maybe tomorrow
I've got so many other things to write this night (always my personal problems )

There, I've posted on my blog all the latest polls and there are MANY of them !
No big surprise, though Pyrénées-Orientales 1st and Alpes-Maritimes 2nd (Argh) may be interesting.
Meirieu is ahead of Braillard in Lyons

[big bad fab]

LOL, where did you find all these guys ?

You can find more of them here: http://lolgislatives2012.tumblr.com/
LOLgislatives, justement...

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I like this royalist candidate...



But is she old enough to vote?!

[politicus]

I like this royalist candidate...



But is she old enough to vote?!

French Royalists are greenies!?

[tpfkaw]

I like this royalist candidate...



But is she old enough to vote?!

French Royalists are greenies!?

Greenies are already reactionaries, so it's a natural pairing.

[politicus]

I like this royalist candidate...



But is she old enough to vote?!

French Royalists are greenies!?

Greenies are already reactionaries, so it's a natural pairing.

Yes, its pretty much my own world view. React against so called progress that's really just destroying nature, traditions, local communities. Its just an uncommon combo. But sympathetic.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I love how the last remaining Royalists in France are a bunch of lefties. How ironic.

LOL, where did you find all these guys ?

You can find more of them here: http://lolgislatives2012.tumblr.com/
LOLgislatives, justement...

Wow... indeed !

[adma]

This FN candidate not only looks like a rapist (like most FN candidates do, but that's another matter),

Including Marine, I suppose (hey, I can see her sexting a Justin Bieber-type teen)

[Niemeyerite]

[fe]male