NH-Magellan Strategies (R): Obama leads Republicans from 4 to 23 points (user search)
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  NH-Magellan Strategies (R): Obama leads Republicans from 4 to 23 points (search mode)
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Author Topic: NH-Magellan Strategies (R): Obama leads Republicans from 4 to 23 points  (Read 2908 times)
Brittain33
brittain33
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« on: February 12, 2011, 07:18:44 PM »

Romney becomes the umpteenth candidate to loses his home state against Obama.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1 on: February 12, 2011, 09:17:16 PM »

Romney becomes the umpteenth candidate to loses his home state against Obama.

New Hampshire is his umpteenth "home state".

True, this comes on top of him losing Michigan. It's where he has his primary residence now. I wouldn't be cruel enough to hold losing Massachusetts to Obama against him.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2 on: February 14, 2011, 09:35:38 AM »

Also, when it comes to Gingrich v Palin, give Gingrich a break. Palin has had a lot more visibility in recent years and Gingrich didn't exit the national scene very well back in the 90s. Gingrich has a lot more potential to improve whereas Palin is likely to just do worse the more people get to see of her.

But he's still Gingrich. He had room to improve like Kerry and Giuliani did. The more people see of him, the worse he's going to do. He's an unappetizing candidate and has too little control over what comes out of his mouth.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #3 on: February 15, 2011, 08:29:32 AM »
« Edited: February 15, 2011, 08:36:20 AM by brittain33 »

Ah, that's another more subjective issue. You're predicting Gingrich isn't going to gain in support. That might well be true, but he still has a theoretical chance to reinvent himself and prove his worth.

Here's a quote from Nate Silver:

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Pat Buchanan and Al Sharpton. Think about that.

Undecideds are low, too. Gingrich is at 33%-47% fav/unfav. That makes him more unpopular now than Hillary Clinton was in 2007, albeit marginally--but his favorables are much lower. Who does that leave in the TBD column?

The people who don't have an established opinion about Newt Gingrich are those who are too young to have formed an opinion of him in the 1990s, when he was a figure of national prominence. His opportunity to reintroduce himself is selective and based on new people entering the voter pool. Unfortunately, these are the voters who are least likely to be open to supporting a conservative Republican in 2012, and anything he's going to say or do (particularly harping on social issues and Islamo-fascism, as are his particular tactics) is going to keep them solidly in the Democratic camp. I'm sure Phil and Inks would be the first to say that they're outnumbered by their classmates when it comes to politics. Smiley

While all of this is subjective, I think I provide sufficient evidence to make the case that Gingrich does not have an opportunity to be a fresh face and increase his support among enough voters to make himself viable.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #4 on: February 15, 2011, 09:43:44 AM »

I hope you didn't interpret me as saying that Gingrich is awesome and has a great shot at the presidency or anything.

No, I didn't read that in what you were saying, FWIW.
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