2013 Early Venezuela Presidential Election

[Famous Mortimer]

Fun times.

[RogueBeaver]

As I said in the other thread, Capriles would be wise to stay out. Sympathy tsunami will make it impossible in this round.

[Paleobrazilian]

Chavez party has many different factions that may split now that their leader has passed. Maduro represents just one of those factions. If an ugly split happens, the opposition has a shot.

[RogueBeaver]

Will Cabello run? Might be difficult since Chavez publicly anointed Maduro.. but who knows? The military will probably want their say too- and they're also divided.

[RogueBeaver]

Capriles also wishing Chavez's family well, urging calm.

[RogueBeaver]

So who's acting president? Cabello or Maduro?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

So who's acting president? Cabello or Maduro?

Cabello, until the election, from everything I can find on current Venezuelan succession law. The law had already been bent (with the active co-operation of Cabello and the Supreme Court) to allow Chavez to skip his inauguration, so I suppose another twist to put Maduro in charge isn't out of the question, presuming Cabello would support it. I don't see why he would though, assuming the two are in fact rivals.

[RogueBeaver]

Now they're saying Maduro will take the reins and an election will be held in 30 days. Who runs on either side is the question.

[RogueBeaver]

Maduro's the government candidate.

[ag]

As I said in the other thread, Capriles would be wise to stay out. Sympathy tsunami will make it impossible in this round.

They have to do it now - they might not have another chance. Chavez was charismatic and personally popular. Maduro has a charisma of a school bus driver. Under normal circumstances, he won't have much chance in even an unequal election, with government pulling the stops the way it did under Chavez. So, he  will be sorely tempted to not have even such an election. And if he does not yield to temptation, those around him will - with him or not. They can't sit out this election.

[rob in cal]

Also, doesn't the presidential law now only have one round, no runoff?  This would encourage only one Chavez loyalist candidate I would think.

[RogueBeaver]

Seems like a lose-lose situation. They know what happened with the boycott a few years ago but the uneven playing field and sympathy make a victory unlikely.

[Vosem]

I'm not sure Chavez opponents have much sympathy for his death, RB. Capriles himself obviously does, but I don't know if that goes for the average anti-Bolivarian.

[RogueBeaver]

The CW of Venezelists (?) is that 1/3 love him, 1/3 hate him and 1/3 are in the middle. Preaching to the choir a la 2006 (37%) won't cut it- you have to win a chunk of undecideds and yes, Chavistas for the keys to Miraflores. That's why Capriles swore up and down to keep the popular parts of Chavismo like the missions and various social programs, plus it helps to have a concrete record of his own in Miranda. The Chavistas would love nothing more than ammo to paint Capriles and the oppositon as a bridge to the past, as Dole might say.

[RogueBeaver]

Reuters reporting that Capriles has agreed to run.

[Tender Branson]

This will likely end up like the 2009 Carinthia election, after the death of Jörg Haider.

I expect a big Hugo Chavez remembrance vote ...

[minionofmidas]

I hail our new leader, Nicolas Maduro.

[Tender Branson]

I hail our new leader, Nicolas Maduro.

Even before Chavez's death, Maduro led Capriles by 14 points in a poll by Hinterlaces.

So, no big expectations here.

(PS: Hinterlaces predicted Chavez by 16 last year, when he won by 11)

[RodPresident]

Maduro nominated Arreaza (Chavez son-in-law) for Vice President. Maybe he's planning to be a single-term president.

[RogueBeaver]

NYT reporting that the electoral council has set April 14 as the date. I don't think Maduro and Capriles hit the trail, at least officially, till the mourning period ends next Friday. Plus Capriles has to temporarily leave the governorship again.

[RogueBeaver]

Capriles will announce his decision tomorrow. Some speculation that someone else does it if he says no, say Caracas Mayor Antonio Ledesma or Gov. Henry Falcone of Lara. Depends if MUD wants to seriously compete or not, since Capriles is the only one who can do that.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'd say Capriles should skip this one. In 2018 memories of Chavez will have faded and with a pretty uncharismatic candidate like Maduro he would have a fair chance to win.

[RogueBeaver]

The hesitation does make me wonder, but would they have offered it to him if they thought he'd decline? Regardless of what happens they need to run a decent candidate and no one know anything about the others.

[ag]

I'd say Capriles should skip this one. In 2018 memories of Chavez will have faded and with a pretty uncharismatic candidate like Maduro he would have a fair chance to win.

Assuming there is an election in 2018 and it is not blatantly falsified. Precisely because Maduro is uncharismatic.

No, they HAVE TO run and win NOW.

[RogueBeaver]

How can he win with the playing field being so pro-govt plus the sympathy factor?