The probability that a potential 2016 candidate will run for president

[Senator Cris]

The probability that a potential 2016 candidate will run for president.

Indicate a percentage of propability for each potential candidate.

Republicans:

Chris Christie
Mike Huckabee
Rand Paul
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Paul Ryan
Jeb Bush
Scott Walker
Rick Santorum
John Kasich
Bobby Jindal
Scott Brown
Mitt Romney
Allen West
Peter King
Jon Hunstman
Rick Perry
Donald Trump
Susana Martinez
Nikki Haley
Kelly Ayotte
Sarah Palin
Ken Cuccinelli
Rob Portman
Brian Sandoval
John Thune
Tim Pawlenty
Pat Toomey
Condi Rice
Mike Pence
John Bolton
Ben Carson
Mary Fallin
Rick Synder
Sam Brownback
Steve King

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton
Joe Biden
Andrew Cuomo
Elizabeth Warren
Martin O'Malley
Mark Warner
Tim Kaine
Kirsten Gillibrand
Amy Klobuchar
Evan Bayh
John Kerry
John Hickenlooper
Mark Udall
Terry McAuliffe
Sherrod Brown
Howard Dean
Brian Schweitzer
Joe Manchin
Kay Hagan
Janet Napolitano
Kathleen Sebelius
Cory Booker
Deval Patrick
Julian Castro

I propose to keep this thread as the official thread for this question.

You can update your prediction.

[badgate]

---badgate's predictions---

Republicans:

Chris Christie 60%
Mike Huckabee 55%
Rand Paul 40%
Ted Cruz 40%
Marco Rubio 40%
Paul Ryan 25%
Jeb Bush 30%
Scott Walker 45%
Rick Santorum 29%
John Kasich 39%
Bobby Jindal 21%
Scott Brown 10%
Mitt Romney 5%
Allen West 10%
Peter King 20%
Jon Hunstman 20%
Rick Perry 50%
Donald Trump 10%
Susana Martinez 15%
Nikki Haley 15%
Kelly Ayotte 12%
Sarah Palin 22%
Ken Cuccinelli 2%
Rob Portman 11%
Brian Sandoval 9%
John Thune 13%
Tim Pawlenty 5%
Pat Toomey 5%
Condi Rice 6%
Mike Pence 17%
John Bolton 3%
Ben Carson 14%
Mary Fallin 20%
Rick Synder 10%
Sam Brownback 10%
Steve King 7%

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton 75%
Joe Biden 40%
Andrew Cuomo 30%
Elizabeth Warren 10%
Martin O'Malley 35%
Mark Warner 19%
Tim Kaine 14%
Kirsten Gillibrand 25%
Amy Klobuchar 30%
Evan Bayh 20%
John Kerry 5%
John Hickenlooper 7%
Mark Udall 4%
Terry McAuliffe 10%
Sherrod Brown 12%
Howard Dean 33%
Brian Schweitzer 45%
Joe Manchin 14%
Kay Hagan 11%
Janet Napolitano 6%
Kathleen Sebelius 1%
Cory Booker 1%
Deval Patrick 18%
Julian Castro 5%

[Senator Cris]

@Badgate

I forgotten John Kasich.

[Brewer]

Republicans:

Chris Christie 55%
Mike Huckabee 25%
Rand Paul 45%
Ted Cruz 33%
Marco Rubio 20%
Paul Ryan 10%
Jeb Bush 30%
Scott Walker 35%
Rick Santorum 45%
John Kasich 20%
Bobby Jindal 30%
Scott Brown 10%
Mitt Romney 5%
Allen West 2%
Peter King 20%
Jon Hunstman 10%
Rick Perry 45%
Donald Trump 5%
Susana Martinez 10%
Nikki Haley 10%
Kelly Ayotte 9%
Sarah Palin 12%
Ken Cuccinelli 1%
Rob Portman 10%
Brian Sandoval 15%
John Thune 15%
Tim Pawlenty 10%
Pat Toomey 6%
Condi Rice 2%
Mike Pence 10%
John Bolton 10%
Ben Carson 10%
Mary Fallin 15%
Rick Snyder 15%
Sam Brownback 10%
Steve King 5%

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton 75%
Joe Biden 50%
Andrew Cuomo 25%
Elizabeth Warren 20%
Martin O'Malley 25%
Mark Warner 15%
Tim Kaine 12%
Kirsten Gillibrand 10%
Amy Klobuchar 10%
Evan Bayh 7%
John Kerry 5%
John Hickenlooper 10%
Mark Udall 6%
Terry McAuliffe 5%
Sherrod Brown 10%
Howard Dean 6%
Brian Schweitzer 20%
Joe Manchin 5%
Kay Hagan 4%
Janet Napolitano 1%
Kathleen Sebelius 1%
Cory Booker 5%
Deval Patrick 12%
Julian Castro 3%

[Suburbia]

Republicans
Mike Huckabee 55%
Chris Christie 49%
Rand Paul 45%
Ted Cruz 30%
Marco Rubio 30%
Paul Ryan 28%
Jeb Bush 26%
Scott Walker 39%
Rick Santorum 30%
John Kasich 30%
Bobby Jindal 37%
Scott Brown 19%
Mitt Romney 9%
Allen West 20%
Peter King 20%
Jon Huntsman 10%
Rick Perry 47%
Susana Martinez 10%
Nikki Haley 12%
Kelly Ayotte 30%
Sarah Palin 20%
Ken Cuccinelli 9%
Rob Portman 20%
Brian Sandoval 15%
John Thune 20%
Tim Pawlenty 20%
Pat Toomey 2%
Condi Rice 19%
Mike Pence 20%
Ben Carson 30%
Mary Fallin 20%
Rick Snyder 15%
Steve King 5%
Sam Brownback 15%

Democrats:
Hillary Clinton 79%
Joe Biden 70%
Martin O'Malley 65%
Andrew Cuomo 50%
Elizabeth Warren 40%
Cory Booker 20%
Amy Kloubchar 20%
Dick Gephardt 20%
John Kerry 20%
Antonio Villagroisa 20%
Jerry Brown 20%
Sherrod Brown 15%
Bill de Blasio 15%
Claire McCaskill 15%

[TNF]

Republicans:

Chris Christie - 50%
Mike Huckabee - 15%
Rand Paul - 50%
Ted Cruz - 25%
Marco Rubio - 35%
Paul Ryan - 15%
Jeb Bush - 5%
Scott Walker - 65%
Rick Santorum - 15%
John Kasich - 0%
Bobby Jindal - 40%
Scott Brown - 0%
Mitt Romney - -1000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000%
Allen West - 0%
Peter King - 0%
Jon Hunstman - 0%
Rick Perry - 0%
Donald Trump - 0%
Susana Martinez - 0%
Nikki Haley - 0%
Kelly Ayotte - 0%
Sarah Palin - 0%
Ken Cuccinelli - 0%
Rob Portman - 0%
Brian Sandoval - 0%
John Thune - 0%
Tim Pawlenty - 0%
Pat Toomey - 0%
Condi Rice - 0%
Mike Pence - 0%
John Bolton - 0%
Ben Carson - 0%
Mary Fallin - 0%
Rick Synder - 0%
Sam Brownback - 0%
Steve King - 0%
 
Democrats:

Hillary Clinton - 9000%
Joe Biden - 45%
Andrew Cuomo - 40%
Elizabeth Warren - 35%
Martin O'Malley - 50%
Mark Warner - 0%
Tim Kaine - 0%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 0%
Amy Klobuchar - 0%
Evan Bayh - 0%
John Kerry - -1000000000000000000000000000%
John Hickenlooper - 50%
Mark Udall - 0%
Terry McAuliffe - 0%
Sherrod Brown - 15%
Howard Dean - 0%
Brian Schweitzer - 15%
Joe Manchin - 0%
Kay Hagan - 0%
Janet Napolitano - 0%
Kathleen Sebelius - 0%
Cory Booker - 0%
Deval Patrick - 0%
Julian Castro - -10000000000000000000000000000000000000000%

[Phony Moderate]

Republicans:

Chris Christie - 55%
Mike Huckabee - 30%
Rand Paul - 90%
Ted Cruz - 85%
Marco Rubio - 50%
Paul Ryan - 35%
Jeb Bush - 50%
Scott Walker - 70%
Rick Santorum - 80%
John Kasich - 40%
Bobby Jindal - 55%
Scott Brown - 10%
Mitt Romney - 5%
Allen West - 20%
Peter King - 60%
Jon Hunstman - 25%
Rick Perry - 60%
Donald Trump - 10%
Susana Martinez - 15%
Nikki Haley - 15%
Kelly Ayotte - 10%
Sarah Palin - 15%
Ken Cuccinelli - 3%
Rob Portman - 10%
Brian Sandoval - 15%
John Thune - 20%
Tim Pawlenty - 8%
Pat Toomey - 10%
Condi Rice - 20%
Mike Pence - 25%
John Bolton - 40%
Ben Carson - 40%
Mary Fallin - 10%
Rick Synder - 10%
Sam Brownback - 20%
Steve King - 10%

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton - 90%
Joe Biden - 45%
Andrew Cuomo - 35%
Elizabeth Warren - 30%
Martin O'Malley - 60%
Mark Warner - 30%
Tim Kaine - 35%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 45%
Amy Klobuchar - 35%
Evan Bayh - 20%
John Kerry - 20%
John Hickenlooper - 25%
Mark Udall - 15%
Terry McAuliffe - 10%
Sherrod Brown - 20%
Howard Dean - 35%
Brian Schweitzer - 50%
Joe Manchin - 10%
Kay Hagan - 15%
Janet Napolitano - 10%
Kathleen Sebelius - 10%
Cory Booker - 15%
Deval Patrick - 20%
Julian Castro - 15%

[Mister Mets]

Republicans:

Chris Christie (50%)
Mike Huckabee (25%)
Rand Paul (80%)
Ted Cruz (80%)
Marco Rubio (75%)
Paul Ryan (60%)
Jeb Bush (40%)
Scott Walker (60%)
Rick Santorum (85%)
John Kasich (30%)
Bobby Jindal (80%)
Scott Brown (20%)
Mitt Romney (20%)
Allen West (40%)
Peter King (50%)
Jon Hunstman (15%)
Rick Perry (60%)
Donald Trump (25%)
Susana Martinez (30%)
Nikki Haley (30%)
Kelly Ayotte (25%)
Sarah Palin (20%)
Ken Cuccinelli (1%)
Rob Portman (25%)
Brian Sandoval (20%)
John Thune (25%)
Tim Pawlenty (10%)
Pat Toomey (10%)
Condi Rice (20%)
Mike Pence (25%)
John Bolton (15%)
Ben Carson (50%)
Mary Fallin (5%)
Rick Synder (20%)
Sam Brownback (20%)
Steve King (5%)

I'm skeptical on sitting Governors given what I've learned about SEC fundraising rules. I'm also bullish on Paul Ryan, since he has been ambitious enough to run for national office before.

I don't know Ben Carson that well. He seems like an accomplished man. So , but he would follow in the footsteps of other accomplished men who make doomed campaigns (Herman Cain, Steve Forbes, etc.)

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton (85%)
Joe Biden (25%)
Andrew Cuomo (15%)
Elizabeth Warren (35%)
Martin O'Malley (60%)
Mark Warner (25%)
Tim Kaine (15%)
Kirsten Gillibrand (20%)
Amy Klobuchar (20%)
Evan Bayh (5%)
John Kerry (5%)
John Hickenlooper (25%)
Mark Udall (5%)
Terry McAuliffe (5%)
Sherrod Brown (10%)
Howard Dean (20%)
Brian Schweitzer (60%)
Joe Manchin (5%)
Kay Hagan (5%)
Janet Napolitano (20%)
Kathleen Sebelius (10%)
Cory Booker (25%)
Deval Patrick (20%)
Julian Castro (25%)

[BaconBacon96]

Republicans:

Chris Christie: 60%
Mike Huckabee: 70%
Rand Paul: 60%
Ted Cruz: 80%
Marco Rubio: 40%
Paul Ryan: 25%
Jeb Bush: 50%
Scott Walker: 75%
Rick Santorum: 85%
John Kasich: 20%
Bobby Jindal: 50%
Scott Brown: 15%
Mitt Romney: 0.05%
Allen West: 10%
Peter King: 99%
Jon Hunstman: 5%
Rick Perry: 99%
Donald Trump: 3.5%
Susana Martinez: 2%
Nikki Haley: 8%
Kelly Ayotte: 1.5%
Sarah Palin: 4%
Ken Cuccinelli: 0.0001%
Rob Portman: 10%
Brian Sandoval: 4%
John Thune: 4%
Tim Pawlenty: 0.5%
Pat Toomey: 1%
Condi Rice: 0.5%
Mike Pence: 3.5%
John Bolton: 85%
Ben Carson: 50%
Mary Fallin: 10%
Rick Synder: 7%
Sam Brownback: 2%
Steve King: 2%

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton: 85%
Joe Biden: 1% if Hillary runs, 100% if not
Andrew Cuomo: 5% and 25%
Elizabeth Warren: 1% either way
Martin O'Malley: 75% and 100%
Mark Warner: 1% and 50%
Tim Kaine: 1% and 30%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 0.2% and 60%
Amy Klobuchar: 1% and 50%
Evan Bayh: 1% and 10%
John Kerry: 0.001% and 0.01%
John Hickenlooper: 1% and 10%
Mark Udall: 1% and 15%
Terry McAuliffe: 0.0001% and 2%
Sherrod Brown: 1% and 4%
Howard Dean: 5% and 40%
Brian Schweitzer: 90% either way
Joe Manchin: 15% either way
Kay Hagan: 1% and 10%
Janet Napolitano: 1% and 3%
Kathleen Sebelius: 1% and 1.5%
Cory Booker: 2% and 20%
Deval Patrick: 1% and 20%
Julian Castro: 1% and 10%

[Mr. Illini]

Republicans:

Chris Christie - 30%
Mike Huckabee - 40%
Rand Paul - 50%
Ted Cruz - 40%
Marco Rubio - 40%
Paul Ryan - 40%
Jeb Bush - 50%
Scott Walker - 60%
Rick Santorum - 50%
John Kasich - 15%
Bobby Jindal - 20%
Scott Brown - 15%
Mitt Romney - 10%
Allen West - 15%
Peter King - 100%
Jon Hunstman - 50%
Rick Perry - 40%
Donald Trump - 20%
Susana Martinez - 60%
Nikki Haley - 30%
Kelly Ayotte - 20%
Sarah Palin - 30%
Ken Cuccinelli - 10%
Rob Portman - 30%
Brian Sandoval - 20%
John Thune - 15%
Tim Pawlenty - 10%
Pat Toomey - 10%
Condi Rice - 15%
Mike Pence - 25%
John Bolton - 15%
Ben Carson - 35%
Mary Fallin - 10%
Rick Synder - 15%
Sam Brownback - 15%
Steve King - 10%

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton - 90%
Joe Biden - 35%
Andrew Cuomo - 25%
Elizabeth Warren - 10%
Martin O'Malley - 25%
Mark Warner - 20%
Tim Kaine - 15%
Kirsten Gillibrand - 20%
Amy Klobuchar - 15%
Evan Bayh - 15%
John Kerry - 15%
John Hickenlooper - 20%
Mark Udall - 15%
Terry McAuliffe - 10%
Sherrod Brown - 15%
Howard Dean - 20%
Brian Schweitzer - 25%
Joe Manchin - 10%
Kay Hagan - 10%
Janet Napolitano - 10%
Kathleen Sebelius - 10%
Cory Booker - 15%
Deval Patrick - 20%
Julian Castro - 15%

[Senator Cris]

Why the Christie percentage is so small?

[Mordecai]

Democrats:

Evan Bayh: Unlikely
Joe Biden: Unlikely (Maybe if Hillary declines)
Cory Booker: Unlikely
Sherrod Brown: Unlikely
Julian Castro: Unlikely
Hillary Clinton: Likely
Andrew Cuomo: Unlikely (Maybe if Hillary declines)
Howard Dean: Unlikely (Maybe if Hillary declines)
Kirsten Gillibrand: Unlikely (Maybe if Hillary declines)
Kay Hagan: Unlikely
John Hickenlooper: Unlikely
Tim Kaine: Unlikely
John Kerry: Unlikely
Amy Klobuchar: Unlikely (Maybe if Hillary declines)
Joe Manchin: Unlikely
Terry McAuliffe: Unlikely
Janet Napolitano: Unlikely
Martin O'Malley: Likely
Deval Patrick: Unlikely
Brian Schweitzer: Likely
Kathleen Sebelius: Unlikely
Mark Udall: Unlikely
Mark Warner: Unlikely
Elizabeth Warren: Unlikely (Maybe if Hillary declines)

Republicans:

Kelly Ayotte: Unlikely
John Bolton: Likely
Scott Brown: Unlikely
Sam Brownback: Unlikely
Jeb Bush: Likely
Ben Carson: Unlikely
Chris Christie: Likely
Ted Cruz: Likely
Ken Cuccinelli: Unlikely
Mary Fallin: Unlikely
Nikki Haley: Unlikely
Mike Huckabee: Likely
Jon Hunstman: Unlikely
Bobby Jindal: Likely
John Kasich: Unlikely
Peter King: Likely
Steve King: Unlikely
Susana Martinez: Unlikely
Sarah Palin: Unlikely
Rand Paul: Likely
Tim Pawlenty: Unlikely
Mike Pence: Unlikely
Rick Perry: Likely
Rob Portman: Unlikely
Condoleezza Rice: Unlikely
Mitt Romney: Unlikely
Marco Rubio: Unlikely
Paul Ryan: Unlikely
Brian Sandoval: Unlikely
Rick Santorum: Likely
Rick Snyder: Unlikely
John Thune: Unlikely
Pat Toomey: Unlikely
Donald Trump: Unlikely
Scott Walker: Likely
Allen West: Unlikely

[morgieb]

Republicans:

Chris Christie - 50%
Mike Huckabee - 20%
Rand Paul - 80%
Ted Cruz - 99%
Marco Rubio - 60%
Paul Ryan - 15%
Jeb Bush - 35%
Scott Walker - 95%
Rick Santorum - 99%
John Kasich - 10%
Bobby Jindal - 60%
Scott Brown - 0%
Mitt Romney - 1%
Allen West - 1%
Peter King - 99%
Jon Hunstman - 1%
Rick Perry - 99%
Donald Trump - 0%
Susana Martinez - 1%
Nikki Haley - 1%
Kelly Ayotte - 1%
Sarah Palin - 0%
Ken Cuccinelli - 0%
Rob Portman - 0%
Brian Sandoval - 0%
John Thune - 1%
Tim Pawlenty - 1%
Pat Toomey - 0%
Condi Rice - 1%
Mike Pence - 10%
John Bolton - 50%
Ben Carson - 25%
Mary Fallin - 0%
Rick Synder - 0%
Sam Brownback - 1%
Steve King - 5%

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton - 80%
Joe Biden - 10% with Hillary, 99% without.
Andrew Cuomo - 0% with Hillary, 50% without.
Elizabeth Warren - 5% with Hillary, 15% without.
Martin O'Malley - 50% with Hillary, 99% without.
Mark Warner - 0% with Hillary, 50% without.
Tim Kaine - 1% with Hillary, 5% without.
Kirsten Gillibrand - 0% with Hillary, 65% without.
Amy Klobuchar - 1% with Hillary, 99% without.
Evan Bayh - 0% with Hillary, 1% without.
John Kerry - 0% with Hillary, 1% without.
John Hickenlooper - 5% with Hillary, 20% without.
Mark Udall - 0%
Terry McAuliffe - 0%
Sherrod Brown - 1% with Hillary, 5% without.
Howard Dean - 50% either way.
Brian Schweitzer - 99% either way.
Joe Manchin - 0%
Kay Hagan - 0%
Janet Napolitano - 0% with Hillary, 1% without.
Kathleen Sebelius - 0% with Hillary, 1% without.
Cory Booker - 1% with Hillary, 10% without.
Deval Patrick - 5% with Hillary, 10% without.
Julian Castro - 0% with Hillary, 1% without.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Republicans:
Chris Christie: 60%
Mike Huckabee: 40%
Rand Paul: 75%
Ted Cruz: 100%
Marco Rubio: 45%
Paul Ryan: 50%
Jeb Bush: 30%
Scott Walker: 100%
Rick Santorum: 100%
John Kasich: 20%
Bobby Jindal: 30%
Scott Brown: 40%
Mitt Romney: 0%
Allen West: 0%
Peter King: 100%
Jon Hunstman: 20%
Rick Perry: 60%
Donald Trump: 0%
Susana Martinez: 0%
Nikki Haley: 0%
Kelly Ayotte: 0%
Sarah Palin: 15%
Ken Cuccinelli: 0%
Rob Portman: 10%
Brian Sandoval: 10%
John Thune: 40%
Tim Pawlenty: 0%
Pat Toomey: 0%
Condi Rice: 0%
Mike Pence: 40%
John Bolton: 80%
Ben Carson: 100%
Mary Fallin: 0%
Rick Synder: 0%
Sam Brownback: 50%
Steve King: 10%

Democrats:

Hillary Clinton: 70%
Joe Biden: 100% without Hillary, 30% with
Andrew Cuomo: 50% (depends on Hillary)
Elizabeth Warren: 0% (with or without Hillary)
Martin O'Malley: 100%
Mark Warner: 0%
Tim Kaine: 0%
Kirsten Gillibrand: 0% (100% without Hillary)
Amy Klobuchar: 0% (100% without Hillary)
Evan Bayh: 0%
John Kerry: 30%
John Hickenlooper: 30%
Mark Udall: 60%
Terry McAuliffe: 0% (100% without Hillary)
Sherrod Brown: 0%
Howard Dean: 20%
Brian Schweitzer: 75%
Joe Manchin: 30%
Kay Hagan: 0%
Janet Napolitano: 20%
Kathleen Sebelius: 0%
Cory Booker: 0%
Deval Patrick: 20%
Julian Castro: 0%

[Senator Cris]

Other predictions?