Chilean Presidential Election 2013 - Doomsday is here!

[Lumine]

I think this subject was talked about in the thread about the 2012 elections in Chile, and there was a lot of speculation about the possibility of Michelle Bachelet coming back to run for a second term. She announced her decision to run about five minutes ago (sadly for me), so that leaves a very interesting field for the June Primaries and the General Election in November-December:

Concertacion: (Centre-left)

Michelle Bachelet (PS-PPD): Former President, quite empathic a with a decent charisma.
Jose Antonio Gomez: (PRSD): Senator, he ran and lost the 2009 Primaries against former President and Senator Eduardo Frei.
Claudio Orrego: (DC): Former Mayor, young, enthusiastic and belonging the conservative wing of his party.
Andres Velasco: (Independent) Former Minister, intelligent, independent.

Progressive Party/PRO: (Centre-Left)

Marco Enriquez-Ominami: Former Deputy, got an impressive showing in the 2009 election (about 20% of the vote), but he's weak now due to his party being a failure (5% of the votes).

Partido Igualdad: (¿Left?)

Roxana Miranda: She's kind of a "social activist" that nobody knows.

Humanist Party: (Left)

Claude Marcel: Economist and social activist, quite reasonable and fairly interesting.

Coalicion por el Cambio: (Centre-right)

Andres Allamand (RN): Former Minister and Senator, one of the founders of RN, my personal choice.
Laurence Golborne (Independent, but backed by the UDI): Former Minister, popular, the "Right Wing Bachelet".

Independents:

Franco Parisi: Popular TV Economist, he has about 5.000 signatures to go as an independent in the First Round (he needs 40.000 signatures, or 20.000 if he has the support of a Party).
Tomas Jocelyn-Holt: A former deputy, he got kicked out of the party that was supporting him, he has no chance at all to qualify.

Parties without a Candidate:

Partido Regionalista Independiente (PRI): Not likely to raise their own candidate, preference unknown.
Partido Liberal de Chile: Abandoned Jocelyn-Holt, preference unknown.
Partido Comunista (PC): They might back Bachelet, otherwise they'll go with Marcel or an important party leader.
Ecologist Party (PE): I really don't know but I suppose they could also back Marcel.
Movimiento Amplio Social (MAS): Perhaps Senator Alejandro Navarro (the founder), perhaps Ominami.

If anybody is interested about more info on Chilean politics or the developments of the campaign (I will be able to vote in the Primaries and the General Election, and I'll be collaborating with the Renovacion Nacional Youth for the Allamand Campaign), please ask. Despite the fact that it's difficult to find information about past campaigns (even here), I've discovered that politics here can be quite interesting (or bizarre, depending on the election).

[Benj]

Wasn't Bachelet wildly popular (something like >70% approval) when she left office? Seems as if she would have to be a shoo-in for reelection.

[Lumine]

Wasn't Bachelet wildly popular (something like >70% approval) when she left office? Seems as if she would have to be a shoo-in for reelection.

Well, she's personally popular and liked, but her coalition is not (due to several things, like corruption scandals). I believe current polling has her between 40-45% in the first round, and she has been silent so far. If she runs a good campaign she could win the first round with more than 50%, but I suspect she will start to suffer some blows now that she's an official target for the rest of the field. She's the definite favourite for the second round, but I personally think she's not invincible.

[MaxQue]

I think her running became obvious the day she resigned her UN office and returned to Chile for "personal reasons", a few weeks ago.

[Lumine]

I think her running became obvious the day she resigned her UN office and returned to Chile for "personal reasons", a few weeks ago.

You're right, but even if there was no chance that she didn't run, the announcement signals the beginning of the really important part of the race, and her opponents will have to start to fight from now on.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hopefully she can kick the butt of whatever piece of sh*t the Chilean right will end up running.

[Platypus]

Wueno... Y no hay una candidatura de Camila Vallejo porque po?

[RogueBeaver]

While a conservative would be my first choice, I certainly wouldn't mind a second Bachelet term.

[Zanas]

I'm voting Velasco with both hands ! ^^

[Lumine]

Hopefully she can kick the butt of whatever piece of sh*t the Chilean right will end up running.

While a conservative would be my first choice, I certainly wouldn't mind a second Bachelet term.

I'm voting Velasco with both hands ! ^^

To be fair, the Concertacion candidates are quite good (Both Velasco and Orrego would make good Presidents), but I believe the worst candidates are precisely the two more popular: Bachelet and Golborne. Golborne is backed by the UDI, and they are way too populist and right-wing to be allowed to control the Presidency (Piñera is RN, after all). Bachelet is a decent person, but she is surrounded by a camarilla of people that (I believe) should not be allowed back in government, like Yasna Provoste (Former Minister of Education, ousted by Congress).

Wueno... Y no hay una candidatura de Camila Vallejo porque po?

Well, I could see her running once she has the required age, but until that I expect her to be in Congress (she has a good shot at getting elected, despite the fact that the PC has problems to break 5%).

[Velasco]

I like and admire Bachelet at a personal level, though I'd be pleased with someone like Andrés Velasco. Probably Lumine's point about Bachelet's camarilla makes sense, given that other great leaders around the world, such as Nelson Mandela or Lula, have been surrounded by cliques. Apparently it's a common thing among great personalities, though I don't think that Bachelet's clique may be worse than Lula's, not to mention people surrounding Mandela.

Hope that you cover the primaries and related stuff, Lumine. By the way, there will be Legislative elections in Argentina on October or November, preceded by primary elections in August. I have maps and stuff, but I'm not sure if I comprehend politics in that country

[Lumine]

I like and admire Bachelet at a personal level, though I'd be pleased with someone like Andrés Velasco. Probably Lumine's point about Bachelet's camarilla makes sense, given that other great leaders around the world, such as Nelson Mandela or Lula, have been surrounded by cliques. Apparently it's a common thing among great personalities, though I don't think that Bachelet's clique may be worse than Lula's, not to mention people surrounding Mandela.

Hope that you cover the primaries and related stuff, Lumine. By the way, there will be Legislative elections in Argentina on October or November, preceded by primary elections in August. I have maps and stuff, but I'm not sure if I comprehend politics in that country

Well, being objective, her clique would not really destroy or harm the country, but we would have several corruption scandals, and that's the last thing we need right now. In regards to Argentina... I must admit that I know almost nothing about politics there (expect perhaps some knowledge of Peron and the belief that the Malvinas should be called Falklands), so I think I'll try to read a few books about it. With so many important things going on in the continent, I think that it's going to be a very important year for Latin America...

[Lumine]

Since certain things relevant to the Presidential race keep happening, here's a small update:

March 28-April 7:

-President Piñera's approvals climb to 38% (from 34% last survey), the polls indicate that he is viewed as capable and energetic, but with an absolute lack of perceived empathy and respect towards his person (mostly due to his various malapropisms).

-The Minister of Education, Harald Beyer, suffers an impeachment accusation and loses a 58-56 vote in the Chamber of Deputies. Now suspended of his office, he depends on a Senate vote to save his political career. Should he be impached, he would be the third public servant to suffer such a fate since 1990 (the others being Minister of Education Yasna Provoste five years ago, and a Supreme Court Judge in the 1990's).

-The MAS (Movimiento Amplio Social, a small left wing party), leaded by Senator Alejandro Navarro gives his support to Former President Bachelet. She is now supported by the PS (Partido Socialista), PPD (Partido por la Democracia) and the MAS.

-After weeks of negotiations, Andres Allamand and Laurence Golborne agree to have two televised debates before the June Primaries, one in April and the second in June.

-Independent Franco Parisi is close to the 15.000 signatures, and he now stands a chance to qualify for the first round. The other independent, Tomas Jocelyn-Holt, accused the Liberal Party (which used to support him) of stealing/burning his signatures, and he wows to fight back.

[MaxQue]

Where Beyer is being impeached?
Since he is Education minister, does it has to do with the disaster that is higher education?

[Lumine]

Where Beyer is being impeached?
Since he is Education minister, does it has to do with the disaster that is higher education?

Where? Well, our constitution has the "Acusacion Constitucional", a system similar to the impeachment in the United States. The Chamber of Deputies provides an accusation in the form of a "libel", which then is voted. Should the libel pass, the Senate acts as the presiding jury, which votes on the verdict. Motives can range from abandon of duties to corruption.

In Beyer's specific case, he inherited an enormous mess with education, and so far he has been searching for new ways to improve the educational system, a long and endless task. Lately there has been a lot of trouble with "Universidad del Mar", a private university in which the board of directors took out most of the money for themselves, leaving the University bankrupt and the students with a major problem. The board has been doing that since the 1990's, but Beyer discovered the whole mess and gave an order to shut down the university.

I don't blame him for doing that, but he lacks subtlety and he is really bad at sitting on a negotiation table, so he left the students without a choice, and the have been protesting for a while. As a result, a group of deputies decided to "accuse" him, and the ranks of the Concertacion decided to go on the attack to open a firing line against the government for the election, just like the Coalicion did with Education Minister Yasna Provoste in 2008.

[MaxQue]

Well, the question was "why" and not "where", but it's my fault (multitasking).

One can understand why the students are being upset.

Shouldn't the right to do instead of impeaching him would to be sue the directors (if law allows it) and taking measures to ensure that not happening again? Or even nationalizing the university and making it become a public one, instead of simply closing it?

[Lumine]

Well, the question was "why" and not "where", but it's my fault (multitasking).

One can understand why the students are being upset.

Shouldn't the right to do instead of impeaching him would to be sue the directors (if law allows it) and taking measures to ensure that not happening again? Or even nationalizing the university and making it become a public one, instead of simply closing it?

Well, there are no such things as public universities, since the only thing we have is private universities, divided in two categories:

1.- "Traditional" Universities that receive help from the government, have a good prestige and they offer many credits or scholarships.
2.- "Private" Universities that finance themselves (Universidad del Mar being one), but they have a bad reputation, since they often prefer quantity to quality.

That said, I would favor having public universities, and the right thing to do would be to help the students not to lose their studies and putting the directors in jail. However, we have never done the right thing here in Chile... Besides, there are strong conflicts between our politicians, since several of them own parts of those universities or they profit from them. Carlos Larrain, RN President, and Presidential Candidate Jose Antonio Gomez, PRSD President, are good examples. We need to start thinking long-term, but the endless change of Ministers and camarillas surrounding the Presidents make us rush and take short term decisions that end up as disasters.

[Platypus]

Vallejo now!

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I know this is not directly about election, but I'm getting confused about the lenght of presidential term. I understand from Bachelet and on, the term is four years. Yet why have Frei and Lagos served for six, while Aylwin for just four?

[Lumine]

I know this is not directly about election, but I'm getting confused about the length of presidential term. I understand from Bachelet and on, the term is four years. Yet why have Frei and Lagos served for six, while Aylwin for just four?

Well, the general agreement in 1988 was that the first president should only serve 4 years in power (just in case things got ugly), and then switch to six years. Aylwin was quite an efficient president, and some members of congress offered him two more years, but he refused. Then, we had Frei and Lagos serving normal terms, but at the middle of the Lagos term both the left and the right decided to switch back to four years. I'm just speculating here, but I think both sides wanted to be sure just in case they lost the 2005/2006 election (the 2000 one was incredibly close by our standards).

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I know this is not directly about election, but I'm getting confused about the length of presidential term. I understand from Bachelet and on, the term is four years. Yet why have Frei and Lagos served for six, while Aylwin for just four?

Well, the general agreement in 1988 was that the first president should only serve 4 years in power (just in case things got ugly), and then switch to six years. Aylwin was quite an efficient president, and some members of congress offered him two more years, but he refused. Then, we had Frei and Lagos serving normal terms, but at the middle of the Lagos term both the left and the right decided to switch back to four years. I'm just speculating here, but I think both sides wanted to be sure just in case they lost the 2005/2006 election (the 2000 one was incredibly close by our standards).

Thanks. I understand Aylwin operated under very transitional cirsumstances then (quite understable, given the situation, he he did very well).

[Lumine]

I know this is not directly about election, but I'm getting confused about the length of presidential term. I understand from Bachelet and on, the term is four years. Yet why have Frei and Lagos served for six, while Aylwin for just four?

Well, the general agreement in 1988 was that the first president should only serve 4 years in power (just in case things got ugly), and then switch to six years. Aylwin was quite an efficient president, and some members of congress offered him two more years, but he refused. Then, we had Frei and Lagos serving normal terms, but at the middle of the Lagos term both the left and the right decided to switch back to four years. I'm just speculating here, but I think both sides wanted to be sure just in case they lost the 2005/2006 election (the 2000 one was incredibly close by our standards).

Thanks. I understand Aylwin operated under very transitional circumstances then (quite understable, given the situation, he he did very well).

Aylwin has the potential to be the most interesting Chilean politician from the 90's (along with Senator Francisco Javier Errazuriz): He was a powerful Christian Democrat leader during the 70's, and he was one of the most vocal opponents of Allende, even supporting the military coup. Then, he became the leader of the Concertacion and he used his skill to make them won the 1989 Election by a greater margin than expected. Pinochet (by then only Commander-In-Chief of the Army) scared him a couple of times with some threats, but somehow the developed a working relation with him and he managed to surpass all obstacles (Informe Rettig, Senator Guzman's murder, the impeachment of a Supreme Court Justice, Erich Honecker's exile, etc).

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Interesting. Aylwin seems to be quite an accomplished figure, despite operating under very transitional circumstances.

It's awesome to finally have a poster from Chile

[Lumine]

Thank you very much, Kalwejt! Still, I think that a poster by the name of Ichabod is also from Chile, it would be great if he could provide us with an objetive view about local politics (unlike mine). Still, I never have the chance to have a prolonged discussion about Chilean politics, so I really enjoy writing about it...


Oh, a small update:

April 7 - April 13:

-A massive gruop of university students makes a call to begin the general movilization for 2013. A pacific protest march is called for Thursday 11, and despite several fights in Santiago that result in 6 Carabineros (policemen) wounded, the march is called a big success, thanks to the thousands of students that arrive.

-President Piñera makes an open call to abandon populist policies, stating that they could create greater fights during the presidential campaign. Unoficially, the Piñera Administration is leaving Golborne and Allamand to fight alone while they put all of their resources on the candidates to the Senate.

-The election for the Chamber of Deputies's Vicepresidency goes wild when it's discovered that Pedro Velasquez (Ind - Supported by the government and the independents) embellezed funds while being mayor a few years ago. Despite controversy, he wins the vote.

-Minister Beyer will face the impeachment vote by the Senate on Wednesday. a scandal arises when is discovered that the Deputies from the opposition plagariazed several "Impeachment libels" from previous cases, even stating several wrong laws.

-Former Deputy Tomas Jocelyn-Holt faces a massive surge on signatures to launch his independent campaign: He has 22.000 already and he has until August to get the 37.000 he requires.

-The PPD and PS formally announce Former President Bachelet as their Presidential Candidate.

[Lumine]

And the madness in Chilean Politics Continues:

April 13 - 23:

-Harald Beyer loses the impeachment vote (20-18) on the Senate and he is removed from post, while also being barred to hold public office until 2018.
-President Piñera shows great disappointment at the opposition (he and Beyer had a great relationship), and he appoints his most popular Minister, Carolina Schmidt (Minister of SERNAM, which could mean "Women's Affairs") to Education.
-The Communist Party (PC) is currently having serious infighting between supporters of Bachelet and supporters of Jose Antonio Gomez, the PRSD Candidate. Party President Guillermo Teiller and Camila Vallejo (who will go to the Chamber of Deputies Election) support Bachelet, and most of the regional councilors support Gomez.
-Former President Bachelet has been heavily criticized by both the Coalicion and Concertacion for keeping silence on Beyer's impeachment, specially when she lost an Education Minister in a similar situation.