What's your guess RE: current state-by-state GOP primary map?

[jokerman]

I would love to see how the GOP would react if Romney won the nomination with a meager plurality of the popular vote (say <40%).  With a lot of candidates and winner-take-all, it's possible.

[anvi]

Just a brief comment.  A few of you have Palin doing very well in the upper midwest (Minnesota, the Dakotas, Montana).  It wouldn't happen.  There are a few folks up there who like Palin.  But look how poorly the McCain-Palin ticket did in all of those states?  If Dakotans and Montanans liked Palin so much, Bush victories of 20-28 points in 2000 and 2004 would not have been shaved down to 8 and 3 points in the region.  Earlier in the year, Romney won the primaries in Minnesota, North Dakota and Montana by between 12 and 19 points, and the only reason he didn't win South Dakota was that he had long dropped out by that primary.  If polls are taken today, Romney definitely leads across the upper midwest right now.

[RI]

In a race of the evangelical Palin against the Mormon Romney, who takes Idaho?

[anvi]

I think Palin.  Idaho is her home state and she earned a college degree there.

[jokerman]

Just a brief comment.  A few of you have Palin doing very well in the upper midwest (Minnesota, the Dakotas, Montana).  It wouldn't happen.  There are a few folks up there who like Palin.  But look how poorly the McCain-Palin ticket did in all of those states?  If Dakotans and Montanans liked Palin so much, Bush victories of 20-28 points in 2000 and 2004 would not have been shaved down to 8 and 3 points in the region.  Earlier in the year, Romney won the primaries in Minnesota, North Dakota and Montana by between 12 and 19 points, and the only reason he didn't win South Dakota was that he had long dropped out by that primary.  If polls are taken today, Romney definitely leads across the upper midwest right now.

Hmm?  The voters that generated that swing are still a minority of GOP primary voters.  If there's any reason some of those states might opt for Romney as opposed to Palin, it's not because of any strong inclination of the core GOP electorate, but because they are caucus states, especially movable by Romney's financial and organizational resources.

[anvi]

Just a brief comment.  A few of you have Palin doing very well in the upper midwest (Minnesota, the Dakotas, Montana).  It wouldn't happen.  There are a few folks up there who like Palin.  But look how poorly the McCain-Palin ticket did in all of those states?  If Dakotans and Montanans liked Palin so much, Bush victories of 20-28 points in 2000 and 2004 would not have been shaved down to 8 and 3 points in the region.  Earlier in the year, Romney won the primaries in Minnesota, North Dakota and Montana by between 12 and 19 points, and the only reason he didn't win South Dakota was that he had long dropped out by that primary.  If polls are taken today, Romney definitely leads across the upper midwest right now.

Hmm?  The voters that generated that swing are still a minority of GOP primary voters.  If there's any reason some of those states might opt for Romney as opposed to Palin, it's not because of any strong inclination of the core GOP electorate, but because they are caucus states, especially movable by Romney's financial and organizational resources.

Hmm?  Does this mean that actual election results are bad indicators of what voters think?  And besides, if Romney's financial resources outstrip Palin's in the upper midwest, then he'll surely win there, and I'll bet he would put more money in this region, because Palin needs to win more delegates in larger states.  Does this mean I know for sure that voters wouldn't swing to Palin in an actual primary between them in '12?  No, it's just my opinion.  But the question in this thread was who do we think would poll ahead of whom in primary and caucus states right now, and based on actual election returns during last year's primary season and general, I have no evidence to believe that Pailin would be polling ahead of Romney in the upper midwest today.   

[bgwah]

Alaska is most definitely Palin's home state, not Idaho. She was born there and briefly returned for college, but that's it...

Idaho would definitely be close between Palin and Romney, and there would be one of the most noticeable geographic polarizations of any state, I think. Palin would do well in the panhandle, while Romney would of course dominate in Mormon Eastern Idaho.  The Southwestern part of the state would be closer and would decide the winner. Huckabee would probably suck away enough votes from Palin to let Romney win, though, in my opinion.