MT-AL: Rob Quist (D) vs. Greg Gianforte (R) vs. Mark Wicks (L), May 25

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Cute use of a Winchester repeater XD

Hopefully it reads well, if you want to dissect it the editing makes it look like he doesn't actually shoot the TV, but I doubt anyone who doesn't desperately want to discredit Quist is gonna try that hard.

In other news, I'm quickly discovering that I might like the MT Dems most out of any state party in the country.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Kander had the better gun ad.

Kander is a trained military marksman; Quist has his family Winchester from his ranch upbringing. They're gonna be different.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Montana Democrat Rob Quist Is Regular Performer at Nudist Resort
Free Beacon/Brent Scher

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More at the link, including a link to some pictures that I would not dare post here.

I'm not sure how much of a scandal this would be in a state like Montana.  Utah, for sure.  But Montana?

Montana is one of the more socially libertarian states, so, maybe not?

I don't know though, it sure does play into the hippy narrative quite well.

Not all social libertarians (myself included) are that naked guy at the 2016 Libertarian National Convention.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Lacking a hunting license seems like a worse hit that performing at a nudist resort.

Yes but you know it's not like, say, not having a driving license.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Does the DCCC not understand how to respond to attack ads, or do they just not care?

They also appear to not know how to do oppo research :/

Unless the presumption is that Bullock somehow got all of the dirt on Gianforte and used it in the governor's race.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

"We don't wanna give him money because it'll nationalize the race" is such a cop out.

Seriously.

If you're so worried about it, give money to a Super PAC and cut ads oriented around local sensibilities and issues.

If the Democrats are afraid of nationalizing the race, then they've already lost by admitting what they're standing for nationally can never win in Montana. Then maybe they need to reevaluate what they stand for nationally.

I mean, the sad thing is that they're probably right. The Democratic "brand" is terrible right now if you're not a resident of the core of a major megalopolis.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

roughly 50k voters are being diverted from their customary polling places due to the unusual date and manner of the election

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Remember folks, DCCC is just one piece of national democratic campaign action. And everyone else is staying out.

Also worth noting that for Democratic operatives talking to Politico, the Democratic Party is a coalition of the educated, affluent, and moderate.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Remember folks, DCCC is just one piece of national democratic campaign action. And everyone else is staying out.

Also worth noting that for Democratic operatives talking to Politico, the Democratic Party is a coalition of the educated, affluent, and moderate.

D-Trip is the cog in the machine that tackles Congressional campaigns. They can offer non-financial assistance, as they did in Georgia, but you don't campaign in Montana statewide like you do in the Atlanta metro. Other orgs failure to get in is unfortunate but ... they operate very differently.

I mean, they have televisions out there. And groups that are airing ads in the GA 6 associated with the national liberal establishment* are not doing so in the MT AL. And when you ask them, they cite Trump's support, and the comparatively uneducated and ""WCW"" nature of Montana's population.



*the fuzzy network of orgs, think tanks, blogs etc with varying degrees of association with the Democratic party

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Remember folks, DCCC is just one piece of national democratic campaign action. And everyone else is staying out.

Also worth noting that for Democratic operatives talking to Politico, the Democratic Party is a coalition of the educated, affluent, and moderate.

D-Trip is the cog in the machine that tackles Congressional campaigns. They can offer non-financial assistance, as they did in Georgia, but you don't campaign in Montana statewide like you do in the Atlanta metro. Other orgs failure to get in is unfortunate but ... they operate very differently.

I mean, they have televisions out there. And groups that are airing ads in the GA 6 associated with the national liberal establishment* are not doing so in the MT AL. And when you ask them, they cite Trump's support, and the comparatively uneducated and ""WCW"" nature of Montana's population.



*the fuzzy network of orgs, think tanks, blogs etc with varying degrees of association with the Democratic party

GA-6 is a far better pickup opportunity though.

I mean not in my estimation but I guess we'll see after June

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Rob Quist Turned Down A Visit From DNC Chair Tom Perez

Not surprising, but this doesn't sound to me like Perez isn't trying everything to get Quist elected.

It's so great to see Perez get constantly shat on.

Honestly it's good to see that he's at least willing to show up for everyone. I get the sense that he's at least trying.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Rob Quist Turned Down A Visit From DNC Chair Tom Perez

Not surprising, but this doesn't sound to me like Perez isn't trying everything to get Quist elected.

It's so great to see Perez get constantly shat on.

Honestly it's good to see that he's at least willing to show up for everyone. I get the sense that he's at least trying.

Right? I mean Jesus tapdancing Christ you shit on the party when they try to do stuff and you shit on them when they don't. At least Perez is making an effort. Good god.

Not to derail the thread, but I do get the resentment of the party, even when there's a cursory gesture of unity.

For every Perez there's like two Cynthia Dills (#topicalregionalreference)

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Local papers are now reporting Quist under-reported his income.

Stick a fork in him, boys, he's done.

Ugh. That seems hard to recover from.

Every statewide candidate should honestly just have a life coach/body person to dot their i's and cross their t's.

And influential pols (looking at you Schweitzer, Bullock) should do some vetting before they recruit candidates they think will be *just perfect*.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

I've stated to the limited audiences on #southernchat for a while now that I would vote Gianforte here because Quist is a Berniecrat. Now that the race is decided and Atlas can't blame the result on my posts, time to say it on here:

I endorse Gianforte for Congress.

So, uh, you endorsing the idea that people shouldn't retire because Noah worked until age 600, then?

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

DCCC is sending another $400K to Montana for Quist, bringing total investment to $600K.

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_590943b3e4b05c39768423fc

why

Seems approximately equal to my back-of-the-napkin guesstimation of what they invested in the GA-6, so it's probably to paper over reputational hit they've been taking on it.


I really wish they'd just given the state party the 600k when he won the nomination though.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Weird qualitative update, but I'm trying to organize out of state phone banks for Quist here in Chicago. The campaign finally got back to me after months of wrangling, and they literally just sent an OpenVPB* link and a "good luck!" email.

I'm losing confidence every day to be perfectly frank.

*for those not in the know, basically the lowest effort (and indeed, least useful) tool for distributed organizing built into the Democratic field platform NGPVAN.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Weird qualitative update, but I'm trying to organize out of state phone banks for Quist here in Chicago. The campaign finally got back to me after months of wrangling, and they literally just sent an OpenVPB* link and a "good luck!" email.

I'm losing confidence every day to be perfectly frank.

*for those not in the know, basically the lowest effort (and indeed, least useful) tool for distributed organizing built into the Democratic field platform NGPVAN.

What, in your view, would be more useful?

My biggest problem with NGPVAN is that it was the source of the 0-day hack into the DNC severs in 2015. You get into VAN, you not only have everyone's information, you also have a backdoor into the entire infrastructure. The software is just way, way too old and clunky to inspire any confidence.

Perhaps - my main problem here is that they're just dropping a list on people with no training, not telling them what they're going for, and no clear goal. It doesn't necessarily hurt me because I have a fair amount of experience, but if someone just tried to volunteer and got this response, there's a solid chance they'd disengage somewhere between getting this email, creating their actionid, and actually opening up the OpenVPB. It's really terrible organizing on their part.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Democratic internal has Pianoforte up 49/43.

In other words, the DNC was right and atlas (especially the Sanders die-hards) was wrong.

I was making my prediction before it was revealed how thoroughly mediocre Quist (apparently) was as a candidate. I think this is less evidence for whether the DCCC was right or wrong to get involved early; Montana is clearly (in fundamentals) about as winnable if not moreso than the GA 6 (unless there are Democrats getting re-elected with 60%+ of the vote in the GA 6 I'm unaware of).

This is more about local candidate recruitment needing to do its homework.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

-Democratic Party puts in very little effort to help, or comes in late after a barrage of ads
-D Candidate loses race
-"See guys, the DNC DCCC was smart not to invest here"
-Rinse, repeat, forever

Seriously. Even just sending a research team in the first month to dig up more on Gianforte so that you can drop a negative story every time they dropped one on Quist probably would have helped this race immeasurably.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Seriously. Even just sending a research team in the first month to dig up more on Gianforte so that you can drop a negative story every time they dropped one on Quist probably would have helped this race immeasurably.

It's what they did, though? Bullock ran incredibly negative ads against PF in 2012, so it's not as if they have much more to use against him.

I was admittedly watching the race from the newspapers (Billings Gazette, Missoulian, Helena IR) but it didn't seem like Quist was adequately finding new things or reframing the old things.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

The DCCC has already spent more heavily on this race then it does for most during a normal election cycle. It's spending is up there with what is spends on competitive seats in a presidential year, which usually runs a little north of a million dollars.

Source? Last I checked in spending was around 600k.

And I don't think anyone has an issue with the amount currently spent so much as *when * the DCCC got involved (aka, too late).

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

The DCCC has already spent more heavily on this race then it does for most during a normal election cycle. It's spending is up there with what is spends on competitive seats in a presidential year, which usually runs a little north of a million dollars.

Source? Last I checked in spending was around 600k.

And I don't think anyone has an issue with the amount currently spent so much as *when * the DCCC got involved (aka, too late).

<picture>
There are only 10 Democrats on that list that the DCCC spent more in favor of then they have on Quist, with the rest of the larger dollar spending being directed against Republican candidates. All of the seats on that list are more marginal than MT-AL.

Okay, so you're not substantially disagreeing with the 600k number?

And again,

I don't think anyone has an issue with the amount currently spent so much as *when * the DCCC got involved (aka, too late).

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

f[inks]ing h[inks]ll

Hire a vetting service before recruiting a candidate

Congratulations to Pianoforte or the RNCC are due for running a very good research operation. They've established a narrative, made consistent drops, and none of it has reflected poorly on the candidate.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

f[inks]ing h[inks]ll

Hire a vetting service before recruiting a candidate

Mr. Trump please stop, I'm tired of all this winning!

Please tell me what this has to do with President Trump. At all.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

f[inks]ing h[inks]ll

Hire a vetting service before recruiting a candidate

Congratulations to Pianoforte or the RNCC are due for running a very good research operation. They've established a narrative, made consistent drops, and none of it has reflected poorly on the candidate.

If his son is using it I'm not seeing the issue here?

Doesn't matter - 'The wife of Caesar must be above reproach," and all that.

This guy has such confusing finances that it's really easy to portray him as either an incompetent or a tax dodger.