More likely to trend Democratic: Alabama or Oklahoma

[Greedo punched first]

Which state is more likely to trend Democratic?

[Da2017]

I,m going with Alabama. Oklahoma is more rural.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Alabama, because Republican hyper-dominance is mostly based off of racial polarization, which will be comparatively less powerful a factor among Millenial Whites than it has been for Whites of previous generations.

[TML]

My vote goes to Alabama. Its younger voters are more supportive of Democrats than those in Oklahoma (e.g. Exit polls from 2008 indicated that Obama won voters under 30 in Alabama but lost among this group in Oklahoma).

[Greedo punched first]

My vote goes to Alabama. Its younger voters are more supportive of Democrats than those in Oklahoma (e.g. Exit polls from 2008 indicated that Obama won voters under 30 in Alabama but lost among this group in Oklahoma).

Oklahoma whites are more Democratic than Alabama whites. Where did Obama do better with white voters under 30?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

My vote goes to Alabama. Its younger voters are more supportive of Democrats than those in Oklahoma (e.g. Exit polls from 2008 indicated that Obama won voters under 30 in Alabama but lost among this group in Oklahoma).

Oklahoma whites are more Democratic than Alabama whites. Where did Obama do better with white voters under 30?

From 2012 (according to the NYT):
Alabama Whites under 30: 20% Obama
Oklahoma Whites under 30: 30% Obama

So, he didn't do that well with young whites from either state, but Alabama is significantly more black than Oklahoma, so his overall percentages with under 30s in both states were:
Alabama: 48%
Oklahoma: 42%

[Greedo punched first]

My vote goes to Alabama. Its younger voters are more supportive of Democrats than those in Oklahoma (e.g. Exit polls from 2008 indicated that Obama won voters under 30 in Alabama but lost among this group in Oklahoma).

Oklahoma whites are more Democratic than Alabama whites. Where did Obama do better with white voters under 30?

From 2012 (according to the NYT):
Alabama Whites under 30: 20% Obama
Oklahoma Whites under 30: 30% Obama

So, he didn't do that well with young whites from either state, but Alabama is significantly more black than Oklahoma, so his overall percentages with under 30s in both states were:
Alabama: 48%
Oklahoma: 42%

That likely means Obama did better with whites under 30 in Oklahoma.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

If the Democratic candidate can get strong black turnout, than definitely Alabama. Hillary's 2016 performance there was basically the Democratic floor.

[cvparty]

if metro okc and tulsa trend democrat that would do it...

[All Along The Watchtower]

The one with more black people.

[Beet]

If Alabama changes it won't be because of black people. It'd be because younger whites got more moderate.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

If Alabama changes it won't be because of black people. It'd be because younger whites got more moderate.

I think this will happen over time as young people become more and more socially progressive. By 2040 Alabama could be a swing state.

[Del Tachi]

Alabama is also much more urban than Oklahoma.

[RINO Tom]

Alabama is also much more urban than Oklahoma.

Are you quoting actual statistics?  I am not familiar with either state, really, but Metro Tulsa plus the OKC Area alone is about 60% of Oklahoma's population.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Alabama is also much more urban than Oklahoma.

Are you quoting actual statistics?  I am not familiar with either state, really, but Metro Tulsa plus the OKC Area alone is about 60% of Oklahoma's population.

Oklahoma has more of its population residing within areas classified as MSAs by the Census, but the actual density of the urbanized population is almost certainly higher in Alabama. Statistically speaking, Oklahoma is the more urban state, but Alabama has a more robust urban fabric in its urban areas and denser cores anchoring the metropolitan regions. In regards to how that would affect partisan trends, the general rule of thumb is that Democratic voting habits increase as the population becomes denser.

I don't think it's a particularly useful metric while divining the future partisan habits of these two states, though. Alabama will likely shift more Democratic than Oklahoma due to the decreased salience of racial polarization among Millenials Whites compared to the older White generations, which is what's mainly buttressing the Republican's current stranglehold in Alabama. Of course, I would expect them to both still be Republican states for the next several decades

[_.]

Oklahoma trended 0.94% to the Democratic Party on the Presidential level between 2016 and 2020, while Alabama trended 0.10% to the Republicans.

[Non Swing Voter]

Seems like neither will but maybe Oklahoma just because it does have a fairly large city in it that could conceivably attract a tech company or other employer and new workers.

[Vice President Christian Man]

While I don't see either of them flipping, I can anticipate both of them will trend Democrat, with Alabama having a higher % of flipping.

Alabama: I see South Alabama flipping or becoming competitive, as climate change intensifies. The Black belt will continue to stay Democrat, although the rural areas of North/Central Alabama will lock in the state for The GOP. I think Dem's will return to winning 40-45% again in a good environment, but I don't think it would flip unless we see a 400+ Dem. landslide, or a favorite regional son gets nominated, but even then I can't see a Dem doing better than Doug Jones 2017 win. Unless one of the major metropolitan areas grow to Atlanta-levels, Alabama does not have the demographics to favor the Dems, despite its relatively large Black population.

Oklahoma: I see the metros of Oklahoma City and Tulsa trending/leaning Democratic, but the rural areas will leave the state overwhelmingly Republican. As the Dems continue to collapse in rural areas which I think that some areas still have room to fall despite it's strong GOP advantage, Oklahoma will likely vote at the similar percentages as it had during the other election cycles in this century, barring a regional favorite son (Dems usually ranging from the upper 20s-mid 30s). Even at best, I only see Dems getting in the low 40's, possibly mid 40's if conditions for the GOP are extremely unfavorable. There's also the slight possibility of conservative Texans leaving the state if Texas becomes more competitive, which would not help The Dems, as well as climate refugees which could level it out, but most people will likely being their politics with them, with the refugee group leaning conservative overall.

[Sol]

The thing about questions like this is that it's actually pretty easy for states to trend to one party or another, and often depends on kind of specific regional and economic issues which are hard to predict.

Alabama could easily trend to the Democrats in an election where the Dem candidate has a strong relationship with the Black community, as occurred in 2012.

Oklahoma could potentially trend Democratic in a Farm Crisis 2.0 situation.

Neither really says much about the long term prognosis for the states' politics.

[TodayJunior]

If you look east to Georgia, it’s not hard to see how the same phenomenon could occur, albeit very very slowly, in neighboring states like Alabama and South Carolina. Give it some time. I’m not saying AL and SC will flip ANYTIME soon but I do believe as more younger people move to Birmingham and the Huntsville areas, that floor will be about 40-42% rather than 35-38%.

[Hope For A New Era]

I'm going to go against the grain here and say Oklahoma, for a simple reason: Oklahoma's cities are insanely R. Tulsa County contains a large city that everyone has heard of, and it voted R+15. No other urban area can do that.

Oklahoma City, meanwhile, seems to have more attachment to the letter R than to the policies, given their history of moderate FF mayors and enormous (and very popular) public works projects. I could absolutely see it becoming a trendy city during the 2020s.

Edit: I just want to say that I love the double-meaning that "trendy city" has post-2018

[Schiff for Senate]

I'm going to go against the grain here and say Oklahoma, for a simple reason: Oklahoma's cities are insanely R. Tulsa County contains a large city that everyone has heard of, and it voted R+15. No other urban area can do that.

Oklahoma City, meanwhile, seems to have more attachment to the letter R than to the policies, given their history of moderate FF mayors and enormous (and very popular) public works projects. I could absolutely see it becoming a trendy city during the 2020s.

Edit: I just want to say that I love the double-meaning that "trendy city" has post-2018

I agree with you on this. Tulsa has long-term potential; Oklahoma City has short-term potential. Both have a lot of room for growth. Also, Oklahoma's rural regions have probably maxed out for the GOP.

But on the other hand, Alabama has Mobile, Montgomery, Hunstville and Birmingham, and I can see all but Montgomery shifting to the left by a lot. And Alabama's rural areas are basically maxed out too.

So I'd say in the long term, Alabama.

But on the other hand, in the short term, I'd say Oklahoma will trend bluer, since Oklahoma City is pretty clearly shifting leftward.