Conservatives have been in denial about Virginia for years

[illegaloperation]

Virginia was just the tip of the iceburg.

North Carolina is sure to follow, lacking only eight years behind.

Of cause, it sure helps a lot when the NC Republicans are committing political suicides.

[illegaloperation]

In 2012, Virginia is the state closest to the national average.

There is no denying that Virginia and North Carolina are moving with great speed to the left.

[illegaloperation]

No not exactly. It will be within the national vote within a point or two to the right or left. It's not a guarantee that it will fall on one side or the other because Obama did skew the results ahead of what they would've been. If a Republican were to win the election without the popular vote then I can see Virginia voting against the GOP nominee, but think about the electoral votes. In order for either party to win a close election, they'd almost have to win Virginia. So not only is it highly unlikely for Virginia to go against a Republican winner, but also highly unlikely for it to go against a Democrat winner. If I had a gun to my head I'd put Virginia 0.73 points to the right of the nation, but my prediction will be better when I look at polls the night before the election.

How did he do that?

[illegaloperation]

No not exactly. It will be within the national vote within a point or two to the right or left. It's not a guarantee that it will fall on one side or the other because Obama did skew the results ahead of what they would've been. If a Republican were to win the election without the popular vote then I can see Virginia voting against the GOP nominee, but think about the electoral votes. In order for either party to win a close election, they'd almost have to win Virginia. So not only is it highly unlikely for Virginia to go against a Republican winner, but also highly unlikely for it to go against a Democrat winner. If I had a gun to my head I'd put Virginia 0.73 points to the right of the nation, but my prediction will be better when I look at polls the night before the election.

How did he do that?

He brought out a higher black vote compared to most states.

Southern whites dislike him and Hillary can improve the margin with Southern Whites for all we know.

[illegaloperation]

Virginia was actually more D than the national vote in 2012, albeit by 0.03%. And the black vote certainly helped Obama in the state but the white vote has actually trended D as well and these are almost all highly educated whites. The Census numbers in suburban DC do not look good for the GOP and the trends on the Maryland side of that border should scare the GOP in VA.

Yes but like you said it was only 0.03% and the black vote helped Obama. It will continue to vote for the winners of elections for another decade.

So what? Maybe whites hates Obama and didn't voted for him.

[illegaloperation]

Virginia was actually more D than the national vote in 2012, albeit by 0.03%. And the black vote certainly helped Obama in the state but the white vote has actually trended D as well and these are almost all highly educated whites. The Census numbers in suburban DC do not look good for the GOP and the trends on the Maryland side of that border should scare the GOP in VA.

Yes but like you said it was only 0.03% and the black vote helped Obama. It will continue to vote for the winners of elections for another decade.

So what? Maybe whites hates Obama and didn't voted for him.

What are you trying to say? Please find me where we disagree?

You are telling everyone that Obama over performed in Virginia and North Carolina, because there are a bunch of African Americans that just voted for him exclusively because he is black.

For all I know, maybe Southern whites (not Northeast whites who just move there) just voted against him exclusively because he is black.

There is simply no way right now to confirm that either is true.

[illegaloperation]

Obama isn't the most important factor. He certainly did better than other Democrats would've done in 2008 or 2012 though.

What makes you think that "[Obama] certainly did better than other Democrats would've done in 2008 or 2012" ?

[illegaloperation]

Obama isn't the most important factor. He certainly did better than other Democrats would've done in 2008 or 2012 though.

What makes you think that "[Obama] certainly did better than other Democrats would've done in 2008 or 2012" ?

As I've said he brought out the black vote in higher numbers and his ideology of government being the answer to every toothache fits well with government employees and politicians in northern Virginia.

You've just disregarded everything I've just said.

[illegaloperation]

Non-swing voter,

We see you're a non-swing voter and we see why. The last time I checked Obama won Virginia last year. Whether or not it was because he was the Democratic nominee will never be known but isn't likely. You say it voted Democrat not Obama. The last time I checked Obama was the 2012 Democratic nominee. If I didn't know better I'd say you're in denial about Virginia being a battleground state. It's almost as if you only read liberal leaning articles. You definitely aren't a swing voter.

I agree, most of the voters who voted democratic were obama voters not democratic voters. I think the Democratic Party is in for a rude awakening in 2016, and probably 2014.

Actually, you are in for a rude awakening.

[illegaloperation]

Who is in for a rude awakening? History favors republicans, current trends favor democrats.

That's what I am saying.

[illegaloperation]

Democrats are the only types who are in for a rude awakening when our nation follows it's general rule of eight years between parties. They're obsessed with demographics and numbers while the rest of us focus on serving our country and knowing our history.

You keep telling yourself that.

It is absolutely true that we Democrats are obsessed with demographics and numbers.

[illegaloperation]

This is for barfbag

http://i1.wp.com/imgs.xkcd.com/comics/electoral_precedent.png