NHI
Junior Chimp
Posts: 6,140
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« on: August 24, 2013, 09:48:27 PM » |
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In the future democrats won't have to do as well with the black vote to win Virginia. Most of their increased support (even in 2008 and 2012) was among their urban coalition, which was mostly highly educated whites and minorities of various racial groups. If you look at most of the precincts in Fairfax, Alexandria, Arlington that Obama got huge margins in, they are mostly very affluent and have a black population lower than the state average of 20%. Those areas are growing at a higher rate than the rest of the state (by far) and they are giving democrats larger margins. So it's safe to assume that the trendlines for democratic growth in Virginia have little to do with the black population and all to do with educated DC suburban voters increasing as a share of the state population.
The black population is a key part of the state coalition, but it's becoming a smaller and smaller part of it. The democrats just need to maintain solid numbers among that group and not let their turnout fall to dismal levels. There is no evidence that either event will happen even with Obama off the ticket. As others have mentioned, even Kerry got solid margins among black voters and their turnout level was fine as well.
What democrats do need to focus on is turning out Asians and Hispanics in Northern Virginia in greater numbers, especially in the counties right outside Fairfax. If the democrats can get NOVA to supply 40% of the statewide vote in the future, there is almost no conceivable way Republicans can win a statewide race. NOVA (at 40%) + College Towns + Richmond + Black downstate counties = an insurmountable margin for Republicans to overcome under the current political alignments.
If I were the Virginia GOP, I would give up on social issues (immediately) and focus on local issues like traffic congestion, taxes, schools, things suburbanites care about.
True and at the federal level focus on school vouchers, lower taxes, and infrastructure.
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