Croatia parliamentary election - November 8, 2015

[politicus]

Since the two sides are starting to court new allies and are gearing up for the election (to be held February 20 at the latest) this seems to be a good time to start this up:

http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/croatia-s-governing-coalition-attracts-new-partners-for-elections

There are 151 seats in their parliament. 140 will be elected in 10 multi member constituencies + 2 special constituencies; one with 8 seats reserved for ethnic minorities and one with 3 seats for the diaspora. There will be a 5% threshold within each constituency using D'Hondt and with open lists for candidates that gets at least 10% of votes, those below this threshold will be elected according to party list (but are unlikely to get elected anyway).

Parties and alliances


Croatia is Growing:

Social Democratic Party of Croatia (SDP), fairly run of the mill SDs, by far the biggest party

Croatian People's Party – Liberal Democrats (HNS), Social Liberals

Croatian Party of Pensioners (HSU), small left populist single issue party

Croatian Labourists - Labour Party (HL), left-wing populist party

Zagorska Democratic Party (ZS), regionalists, populists (used to be allied with HDZ)



Patriotic Coalition:

Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), Conservatives, former "party of power"

Croatian Peasant Party (HSS), SoCon agrarian party

Croatian Party of Rights - dr. Ante Starčević (HSP AS), right-wing populists/quasi-fascists

Bloc of United Pensioners (BUK), the right wing pensioners party

Croatian Demochristian Party (HDS), hardcore SoCons

Croatian Growth (Hrast), hardcore SoCons


Others:

Left wing:

Sustainable Development of Croatia, ecosocialist party founded by former Minister of the Environment Mirela Holy. Courted by Kukuriku

Human Blockade (Živi Zid), Anti-establishment populist, whose candidate Ivan Sinčić did spectacularly well in the Presidential election


Centrists:

People's Party - Reformists, small Liberal party, right wing on economics, left wing on social issues

Milan Bandić 365 - Populist outfit formed by Zagreb Mayor Milan Bandić 365, who is a former SocDem, but not friendly with the current leadership

Forward Croatia! - Progressive Alliance, centrist progressives under former President Ivo Josipović. Courted by Kukuriku.


Conservatives:

Democratic Center (DC), mainline Conservatives.

Croatian Citizen Party (HGS), right wing populists, formed by former Mayor of Split


Regionalists and minorities:

Croatian Democratic Alliance of Slavonia and Baranja (HDSSB), Slavonian regionalists and right wing populists. Courted by both sides, but dislikes HDZ. Founded by a war criminal, but current leader is clean
   
Istrian Democratic Assembly (IDS), small regionalist party (used to be in Kukuriku)

Independent Democratic Serb Party (SDSS), main Serbian minority party, Social Democrats

[politicus]

On Friday Zagreb County Court threw out an indictment filed against city Mayor Milan Bandic for corruption due to lack of evidence, so he is still in the running.

http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/court-drops-indictment-against-zagreb-mayor-bandic

Bandic has been Mayor of the capital for 14 years and his last name should be spelled Bandit. He was also arrested in October for influence peddling, abuse of office and other corrupt activities over several years - embezzling around 20 million Euro of the City of Zagreb’s money together with his cronies.

[politicus]

Most recent poll from Promocija plus    

Kukuriku 28.3    
HDZ + allies 30.7    

Labour 1.6    
Sustainable Development 5.7    
MB 365 2.7    
Human Blockade 5.3    
Others 11.9    
Undecided 13.7

HDZ leads, but their problem is that most of the small independent parties with any chance of getting seats are leftist.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Red are the Kuks, blue are the HDZ coalition.

The Greens are Holy's group, yellow is Labour, the new Black party is Blockade, blue is National Forum (liberal group briefly popular) and brown was a populist right-wing alliance dominated by HDSBB for the Europeam elections. Joly had a ridiculous rise, but sadly i haven't found any English reasons for her subsequent fall.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Croatia, although successfully entering the EU during Milanovic's tenure, has not had a great time economically. The Government has led a very austere agenda to avoid a credit rating cut (which had detoriated to almost junk status), cutting spending and reforming the shipyards.  Unemployment is still stubbornly high though, and the EU has had some direct action slashing his deficit. Although the HDZ isn't exactly popular, it did lead to the fall of popular composer-president ivo josipovic this year.

[politicus]

Unlike the presidential election where HDZ had a sophisticated, good looking and ladylike female diplomat with an international career as their candidate, their choice for PM is a socially awkward dorky historian from provincial Dalmatia (rumoured to never have dared to speak to fellow students from outside Herzegovina and Dalmatia when he studied for fear of being mocked for his dialect), who according to his former political boss worked for the Yugoslavian secret police and later became a securocrat (former security adviser for Stipe Mesic, ex-chief of the counter intelligence, later intelligence service and home affairs minister among other things).

Tomislav Karamako is a co-founder of  HDZ, with a strong internal position, but after an era of (attempted) modernization where the party got to resemble a modern Conservative party he has again turned it into a nationalistic, socially conservative party with strong attachment to the Catholic church and a growing cult of personality for Franjo Tudjman. Given all the ex-Generals in the Grabar-Kitarovic campaign team (as advisers) the party is going rightwards and unlike G.-K. this time with a front figure that looks the part of a stereotypical HDZ apparatchik.

Karamako is the most unpopular politician in Croatia at the moment and he is not a good debater.
Still, they have a united right wing behind them, a strong base in the countryside and small towns and if they co-opt a couple of regional lists they may have enough to secure a win since the ruling coalition is also deeply unpopular.





This guy makes Ed Miliband look cool.

[PetrSokol]

Dalmatian dialect could be an advantage in the situation when HDZ has the stronghold there in Dalmatia

[PetrSokol]

Till the end of the months the new version of the Kukuriku coalition should be signed: Social Democratic Party of Croatia (SDP), Croatian People's Party(HNS), Croatian Party of Pensioners (HSU) ans as newcommer Labaourists - Party of the Labour (this party run four years ago on its own ans was in the communistic gropu in the European parliament).
Still open is the participation of the regionalist Istrian Democratic Assembly (IDS-DDI) in the new version of Kukuriku. IDS-DDI would like to wait till the moment when the date of the elections will be anounced. The key problem in the negotiations is the issue of decentralization (IDS is in the favour of one Istrian region).

Also the new party "Forvard Croatia - Union of Progress" is willing to have coallition with IDS-DDI (and other regional parties as the Primorsko-goranski savez (PGS) a the Medzimurski demokratski savez).

The new Bandic party "Milan Bandic 365" decided to run in all constituencies and to try to be the kingmaker. It was one of possiblle partners in the HDZ-led coalition.

The unclear is the situation of the right wing regional Slavonian Croatian Democratic Alliance of Slavonia and Baranja (HDSSB) which is in bad relations with the HDZ (it is a split of the HDZ) and there are rumours that they are even able to have a pre-election agreement with SDP and Kukuriku.

The Kukuriku coalition was named after the restaurant where their leaders signed the agreement about cooperation. Now the Croatian media inform that coalition parties are seeking the new name. The rumoured possibilities are: The Left Democrats or Coalition of Democratic left or Coalition for 21st century.

[PetrSokol]

Opinion poll Crobarometar Ipsos for Nova TV (July 24th):

Patriotic Coalition (Domoljubna koalicija): 32,3 % (HDZ 29,5% (+2% against June Crobarometar Ipsos), included also Croatian Party of Rights - dr. Ante Starčević (HSP AS - 1,3%), Bloc of United Pensioners (BUZ), Croatian Peasant Party (HSS - 2,1 %), Croatian Demochristian Party, Zagorska Democratic Party (ZDS) and HRAST)

Kukuriku Coalition: 28 % (Social Democratic Party 23,9% (-1%), included also Croatian People's Party(HNS - 1,5%), Croatian Party of Pensioners (HSU- 1,2 %) and Istrian Democratic Assembly (IDS-DDI - 1,3%))

Human Blockade (Živi zid): 6,4%

Sustainable Development of Croatia (ORAH): 5%

Milan Bandič 365: 3%

Bridge (MOST): 2,8 %

Reformists of R. Čačič (Reformisti, split of HNS): 2%

Forward Croatia (Naprijed Hrvatska): 1,5%

Labourists (Laburisti): 1,5%

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why has Sustainable Development fallen as rapidly as it arose?

[politicus]

Why has Sustainable Development fallen as rapidly as it arose?

While we are waiting for PetrSokol:

One factor I have heard is that Mirela Holy apparently lost a lot of anti-establishment street cred, when she decided not to run in the Presidential election and backed Josipovic instead. Then Sincic came along and attracted some of the same dissatisfied progressive voters. She originally rose as someone who despite her time in government was seen as an "outsider" or a challenger to political establishment.

It likely doesn't explain it all, but at least a contributing factor.

Btw indie MP Mladen Novak has joined ORaH. He is a former labourist, who left the party after it started negotiating with Kukuriku.

[PetrSokol]

I completely agree: ORAH is still the one-(wo)man-show. Also the green platform isn´t very popular in the social-conservative Croatia. It seems the ORAH will be another unsuccessful try to form third force in the Croatian politics.
I like the half-Czech Mirela Holy but she won’t succeed against the big tent left of Kukuriku.

[PetrSokol]

There should be a new member of the Kukuriku coalition: Autochthonous Croatian Peasant Party (A HSS). It is a very tiny party but with the "historical" name in Croatian politics. It received 20.000 votes in the last elections and no seats. It is fighting with the HSS (in the Patriotic coalition led by the HDZ now) about the heritage of Stjepan Radić - leader of the biggest party in the interwar period.
There is also very tiny the Croatian Democratic Peasant Party (HDSS). There are rumours it will also negotiate with the Kukuriku parties about coalition cooperation.
Both steps are considered as the attempt of the PM Milanović to move more to the centre, as well as the spectacular military parade for the 20. Anniversary of the Oluja operation, renaming the airport in Zagreb after the first Croatian president Franjo Tudjman or withdrawal from arbitrage with Slovenia about the Piran Bay.

[politicus]

Croatian centre-left Prime Minister Zoran Milanovic bucks the trend on the Balkans (and elsewhere for that matter) and says Croatia is ready to help "people in pursuit of a better life" coming to Europe, and that people fleeing conflict should given the right to remain in the EU.

"I think these people should be given the opportunity to work, to create, to pay taxes, to contribute, since for sure they won’t and shouldn’t go back".

"Thousands of people risk their lives out of desperation, not because they want to take a piece of bread from someone".

"They came because they were persecuted and poor, and because they want the right to a better life. It is up to us to help them as much as we can".

I wonder if Croatia would be acceptable to the refugees - they seem to be going for Northern and Western Europe no matter what. If refugees can go through Croatia without hindrance that will put pressure on Slovenia as the new gateway to Austria, and open a way around Hungary (and Romania).

But of course, he may not follow through on his words.

This certainly gives HDZ plenty of nationalist ammo. Could get ugly. Xenophobia is not exactly unheard of in Croatia...

[Zanas]

Breaking news : Croatian Prime Minister Zoran Milanovic is a more decent human being than most of the Atlas Forum members.

Who knew?

[freefair]

I usually am centre right but I couldn't support the HDZ in government & the SD's are OK (but still ex-Titoists) so I'm rooting for the PP-LDs to drag the current coalition towards the centre-right. Ideally I'd go for the Reformists.

[politicus]

Status right now is that Kurikuriku and HDZ are basically tied, but since both Sustainable Development and Human Blockade almost certainly will get pass the 5% threshold in at least 3 of the 5 28 seat constituencies and nobody else are likely to do that, there will be a left/centre-left majority. The government can of course not use Human Blockade, but neither can HDZ and Sustainable Development is a useable partner. So it looks as a small government advantage at this point. Human Blockade holding the balance of power is not totally out of the question and would block everything (a grand coalition is unthinkable in Croatia), but hopefully it won't happen. Regionalists might get a seat or two, but that seems to be the max.

Promocija plus poll:

Kukuriku 31.1   
HDZ 32.8      
Sustainable Development 4.4   
Milan Bandic365 1.8   
Human Blockade 4.0   
Others 11.2   
Undecided 14.6

The 3 diaspora seats gives HDZ a small advantage, but it would not be enough with these numbers.

[politicus]

Best Croatian politician

President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović 29.2
Speaker Josip Leko 10.6
PM Zoran Milanovic 7.5
Ex-President Ivo Josipović 5.0
Minister of Finance Boris Lalovac 4,9
Mirela Orly 4,5  (Sustainable Development leader)
Tomislav Karamarko 3.2 (HDZ leader)
Tonino Picula 2.6 (from SDP, MP & MEP, ex-Minister of Foreign Affairs and ex-Mayor of Velika Gorica)
Milan Bandić 2.6 (corrupt bastard - MB365 leader)
Bozo Petrov 1.8

(they dont give the none of the above share - but that always high on that question)


Worst Croatian politician (totally dominated by the top dogs):

Tomislav Karamarko 32,9%
Zoran Milanovic 28,2%
Milorad Pupovac 3,5% (President of the Serb National Council.. haters gonna hate)
Vesna Pusic 2,3% (HNS leader (Liberals) very pro-gay rights and Euro integration)
Milan Bandić 1,5%
Ivo Josipović 1,1%
Nadan Vidosevic 0, 8%
Nenad Stazic 0,8%


Most important occurence right now:

Refugee crisis 30.2
20-year anniversary for Operation Storm 17.3%
Murder of Tomislav Salopek 15.5% (Croatian hostage beheaded by ISIL associated Jihadists in Egypt)
GDP growth 8.6%
Government decision to convert loans in Swiss Francs into Euros 8.2%


On a scale from 1-5 how satisfied are you with:

Government 2.49
President 3.46
Parliament 2.42

[politicus]

Planning to write something about Croatian parties. This recent poll illustrates how few are actually relevant. 7 parties poll above 2%. Only 4 above 3%. I will not do the ones compiled under "Others" in this poll since they are essentially sects with about 0.1% support (or less). In addition to the 5 minuscule parties in the coalitions, there are about a dozen more hided under "Others". All parties in Alliance for Croatia are Conservative and/or right wing populist in various ways - I will start with them.

Patriotic Coalition:
HDZ 31.1% broad SoCon, Conservative, Nationalist party of power out of power
HSS 2.6% SoCon agrarians
HSLS 0.6% Mainline secular Conservatives ("National Liberals")
HSP AS 0.6% (Conservative quasi-fascists), split from HSP  (see below)
BUZ (Conservative pensioners - under others)
ZDS (right wing regionalists - under others)
HDS (hardcore SoCons - under others)
Croatian Growth (Hrast) (rival hardcore SoCons - under others)

Croatia is Growing:
SDP 29.0% (SDs)
HNS 2.0% (Social Liberals)
IDS 1.0% (Liberal Istrian regionalists)
Labour Party 0.7% (Left Populists)
HSU 0.6% (pensioners)
A-HSS (agrarian populists - under others) the "authentic" HSS, the rival bigger one is in the HDZ bloc
ZS (populist Zagorje regionalists - under others)


Outside the blocs:

Leftists:
ORaH 4.6 (Greens)
Human Blockade 4.4 (Left Populists)
Forward Croatia! 1.5% (Josipovic trying to play Berlusconi)

Centrists:
MB 365 1.2% (corrupt bastard + cronies)
NS Reformists 0.6 Liberals (split from HNS)

Rightwingers:
Bridge of Independent Lists (Most) 2.6 (Conservative Indies)
HDSSB 1.6% (Conservative Slavonian regionalists)
HKS 0.4% (Very Conservatives) split from HSP AS
HSP 0.6 (Conservative quasi-fascists)

Others 1.3%
Undecided 13.1%

In addition to the above five other parties are represented in the current parliament. A Serbian and a Bosnian minority party, both centre-left, share 4 out of the 8 seats reserved for minorities (the rest was taken by minority candidates from Croatian parties), Democratic Center (DC) was a 2000 attempt to create a saner HDZ more in line with Western mainline Conservatives (a Croatian CDU) - it got no seats in 2007 and had to run as part of the HDZ coalition in 2011 to get a seat, which sorta defied its purpose - it seems finished now; Croatian Civic Party (HGS) is a right wing populist party founded by a former Mayor of Split, but now out of fashion in the crowded market for right wing populism and nationalism; then there is the 79 year old anti-Vatican/pro-secularism former Catholic priest and sociologist Ivan Grubišić who is elected on his own list, but probably won't run again (though he did in the Presidential election..).

The two minority parties will get in, the rest won't.

[DavidB.]

I was in Croatia before the 2011 general election and I even campaigned for Kukuriku with their team in Zagreb then... I remember the talks with desperate Croatians who were sick of all of their politicians and not knowing what to say. High unemployment and corruption are still huge problems in Croatia, despite their accession to the EU.

If this was a Western European election and these parties were actually normal, I would always support HDZ. However, this is not Western Europe and HDZ has a terrible record regarding corruption. I'd have much more trouble voting for HDZ than for, say, PiS or Fidesz, which is telling. Croatia is one of those states (together with Bulgaria and Romania) that should have been pushed to implement many more anti-corruption reforms before entering the EU, not because I think they shouldn't be in the EU (at least Croatia should be), but because it would have been more effective in eradicating corruption, which is now simply persisting to a somewhat smaller extent than before. The EU method of throwing money at new poor member states, by the way, isn't very helpful either.

[politicus]

This election was expected to be called on September 25, when parliament reconvenes. According to the constitution elections has to be held 30-60 days after dissolving the parliament (Sundays only), so late October to late November, but because of the refugee crisis this may not happen. The question now is whether the government will wait and see if the crisis somehow gets less acute, or they will expect it to become worse and call the election while they still have a small chance.

3 of 4 parties in the governing Kukuriku coalition (minus IDS) teamed up with two populist micro parties to form "Croatia for Growth" in early September.

HDZ has drafted 7 small right wing parties for their Patriotic Coalition.

[politicus]

President Kolinda Grabar Kitarovic has appointed former PM and failed 2009 presidential candidate Andrija Hebrang (69) her special commissioner for the refugee crisis.

The old HDZ hardliner immediately entered into head-on conflict with Zoran Milanovic about the thousands of refugees that have entered Croatia stating that the Prime Minister bore "a historical responsibility" for not preparing the nation for the crisis and accusing him of allowing "such a violation of the territorial sovereignty of the Republic of Croatia that it may even demand criminal responsibility".

Despite his nomination by the President Hebrang has no real jurisdiction over the refugee crisis and can only inform the President of developments and criticize the government - which he clearly has every intention of doing at every possible opportunity.

Hebrang is a retired professor of medicine and had 20 years of high level presence in HDZ politics as a Health Minister and presidential advisor. He was close ally of corruption convicted former PM Ivo Sanadar and a keen admirer of Franjo Tujdman. Bringing him out of retirement as attack dog is clearly stepping up the conflict.

[politicus]

This is getting closer. Parliamentary Speaker Josip Leko (SDP) has confirmed that he this afternoon signed a draft decision on the dissolution of Parliament after request from the PM. It will be on the agenda tomorrow and if approved (as expected) Parliament will formally dissolve on Monday (September 28), which means the election will be November 22 at the latest.

[politicus]

ORaH leader Mirela Holy is now simultaneously going for the pothead and debt strapped farmers vote, saying that her party wants complete legalization of marijuana for both medical, personal and recreational purposes. Also stating that studies show that marijuana has a beneficial effect on a number of diseases such as multiple sclerosis, various types of cancer and other autoimmune diseases, Crohn's disease and diabetes + consumption of products of cannabis increases the quality of life patients.

Also sees a huge potential for growing and processing hemp as a very profitable crops and that there is very good conditions for growing hemp in Croatia, due to the climate and soil quality (as evidenced by the fact that the former Yugoslavia was the second in the world for the production of hemp).

"Croatia has a long tradition in connection with a series of industry that were involved in the processing and production of cannabis - in the construction industry produces the concrete of hemp, the energy potential is used as biomass, hemp can produce textile products, used in the paint industry and varnishes, as well as in the food, pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries, paper manufacturing... hemp produced the first car body, and today it contributes to plastics and components for space technology".

She might be overdoing this slightly.. sounds like "free marijuana will cure all our problems" reminds me of the Green Party of Zambia and their widely ridiculed "marijuana revolution", but of course Croatia isn't as SoCon as Zambia.

[politicus]

It will with about 99% certainty be either 8 or 15 November 2015, the date will be announced by President Grabar-Kitarovic on October 5.