Austrian Elections & Politics - Version 1.0

[DavidB.]

Prediction has been changed: ÖVP up to 36.1%, NEOS down to 3.6%.

The prediction will change quite often in the coming hours, as more cities are counted.

It will also become more and more accurate, as the margin of error goes down.

Yeah, that seems self-evident

[DavidB.]

Somehow I think it's ironic for Austrians to want Germany to annex (parts of) Austria because of sentiments against the far-right

[DavidB.]

New prognosis (16:40):

ÖVP 36,2 % (-10.5)
SPÖ 17,9 % (-7,1)
FPÖ 31,2 % (+15.9)
GRÜNE 10,2 % (+1.0)
NEOS 3,6 % (new)   
CPÖ 0,3 %   
KPÖ 0,6 %   

22.5% counted. FPÖ somewhat down, ÖVP somewhat up, but all within extremely small margins. However, in the seat prediction, ÖVP-Greens now has 28 instead of 27.

[DavidB.]

I am seriously annoyed by Austria not being on Google Streetview at moments like this. Always love to look up these places and see what they look like, which is quite predictable but also entertaining.

[DavidB.]

After seeing this, the nuke it is.

Municipality of Moosbach (District of Braunau)

St. Georgen am Fillmannsbach, just in, has an even higher FPÖ percentage: 56.63%

[DavidB.]

That name just cries "hicksville"

Is it district Braunau or Ried im Innkreis?

Haha yeah, these names are extremely LOL. It's near Braunau (not a surprise ) and not near Ried, so I assume it's in Braunau district as well, though I don't know where I could find this.

[DavidB.]

For an impression:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8eF2GwwLw4

[DavidB.]

That should be on top of the page at the ORF results website, I guess.

Ah, I see. Thought clicking led you to all municipalities in Oberösterreich. Thanks.

New prognosis:
ÖVP 36,0
SPÖ 18,1
FPÖ 31,1
GRÜNE 10,3
NEOS 3,5

SPÖ one seat up, Grüne one seat down.

[DavidB.]

Isn't the (in)famous town of Fycking also in this area?

[DavidB.]

Looks like the FPÖ will end up near 30%, because I think Linz will have no more than 25% for them.

If that happens, I'll kindly remember you of your reply to my 29,5% prediction

[DavidB.]

Current two-party majority options:

1. ÖVP-FPÖ
2. ÖVP-SPÖ
3. FPÖ-SPÖ

[DavidB.]

Is there any geographical/social key to the FPO result (better results in north-west part of the state)?

http://orf.at/wahl/ooe15/#analysis/fpoe

[DavidB.]

This has literally been discussed on this page of this thread.

[DavidB.]

SPÖ holds Mauthausen, site of the former big Nazi concentration camp.

25% FPÖ (+12%)

Had missed this. Where is MaxQue when we need him?

[DavidB.]

Is really fact that somewhere were concentration camp influencing modern politics, or this is just fun-fact? I ask such things seriously - I don't know much about Austrian politics (I don't even know why).

No, it clearly doesn't influence voting patterns. Otherwise the percentage of FPÖ voters would either be way lower (or way higher).

[DavidB.]

SPÖ holds Mauthausen, site of the former big Nazi concentration camp.

25% FPÖ (+12%)

Had missed this. Where is MaxQue when we need him?

What? I don't even remember commnting on Mauthausen. I commented than Austria has issues with its past and failed to do proper denazification, painting themselves as victims (which isn't true nor false, it's just not clear-cut all at, with shades).

Overall, the result is in line with my idea. When in the voting booth, some FPÖ voters decided current land government was good and voted ÖVP.

Actually I meant that you were right. The fact that one in four (!) voters in Mauthausen (!) voted for the FPÖ clearly shows that these people didn't learn much from history, and that more denazification efforts were necessary.

[DavidB.]

SPÖ holds Mauthausen, site of the former big Nazi concentration camp.

25% FPÖ (+12%)

Had missed this. Where is MaxQue when we need him?

What? I don't even remember commnting on Mauthausen. I commented than Austria has issues with its past and failed to do proper denazification, painting themselves as victims (which isn't true nor false, it's just not clear-cut all at, with shades).

Overall, the result is in line with my idea. When in the voting booth, some FPÖ voters decided current land government was good and voted ÖVP.

Actually I meant that you were right. The fact that one in four (!) voters in Mauthausen (!) voted for the FPÖ clearly shows that these people didn't learn much from history, and that more denazification efforts were necessary.

How is it?

What do you mean?

It doesn't really take a rocket scientist to see that the FPÖ clearly campaigns with "winks" toward the nazi past, it uses nazi nostalgia in order to win votes. This I find disgusting. "Die Soziale Heimatpartei" basically says "we are nazis". The slogan "Die Menschen, Das Land, Meine Berufung" is also inspired by a quite well-known German tricolon.

[DavidB.]

But its clearly only cheap way to get additional voters, not real approach and ideas of the party. I am not the fan of FPO: but we must separate political calculations during eletoral campaign from real party views.

I am not convinced. I am hardly a "hungry leftist", as you described other people on this forum: I tend to be supportive of various new-right parties across Europe, such as the Danish People's Party and the Swiss People's Party. I totally agree with many well-formulated concerns about the future of a country and preserving the European/Judeo-Christian/whatever you call the identity of a country, but I cannot agree with or support outright racism and incitement to hatred to people. Criticizing Islam is something different than actively campaigning against people, as the FPÖ did ("Heimatliebe statt Marokkaner-Diebe"), and winks toward a nazi past are especially a no-go for me - the anti-Semitism in the FPÖ is also a big problem for me (even though The Greens, for instance, are obviously even worse for Jews, but I'd never support any Green party whereas I could support new-right parties). An FPÖ representative officially hung out with a Jobbik representative on some far-right conference. That's not a "political calculation during an electoral campaign."

[DavidB.]

Question to the Austrian posters: why is the KPÖ so ridiculously strong in the municipal council of Graz?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Graz_local_election,_2012

[DavidB.]

Question to the Austrian posters: why is the KPÖ so ridiculously strong in the municipal council of Graz?

I'm German, but I think I can answer this question.

A representative survey found that 87 % of the people who voted KPÖ in the 2012 Graz municipal election thought that the housing policies of the party were "very important" or "somewhat important" for their voting decision. Of course, the KPÖ is strongly in favour of public housing, but what really sets them apart from other parties is the (perceived) genuineness with which they tackle housing issues. I think that the best example is the "Tenants' Helpline" ("Mieter-Notruf"), which is operated by the KPÖ Graz.

Here's what the KPÖ Graz says about its helpline:

"The Tenants' Helpline of the KPÖ has been in operation since 1996. We check tenancy agreements and utility bills as well as the legality and the amount of [broker] commissions. We give advice on harrassment by landlords, cancellations, and eviction suits. We help if there are problems with the repayment of security deposits, but also with other issues around the subject of housing."

Thanks Seems like a nice thing to do for the KPÖ, and a good way to gain support.

[DavidB.]

But its clearly only cheap way to get additional voters, not real approach and ideas of the party. I am not the fan of FPO: but we must separate political calculations during eletoral campaign from real party views.

I am not convinced. I am hardly a "hungry leftist", as you described other people on this forum: I tend to be supportive of various new-right parties across Europe, such as the Danish People's Party and the Swiss People's Party. I totally agree with many well-formulated concerns about the future of a country and preserving the European/Judeo-Christian/whatever you call the identity of a country, but I cannot agree with or support outright racism and incitement to hatred to people. Criticizing Islam is something different than actively campaigning against people, as the FPÖ did ("Heimatliebe statt Marokkaner-Diebe"), and winks toward a nazi past are especially a no-go for me - the anti-Semitism in the FPÖ is also a big problem for me (even though The Greens, for instance, are obviously even worse for Jews, but I'd never support any Green party whereas I could support new-right parties). An FPÖ representative officially hung out with a Jobbik representative on some far-right conference. That's not a "political calculation during an electoral campaign."

Racism against Muslims and other middle-eastern and sometimes eastern-European immigrants is fine, but Jews, noooooo. Whenever they say something racist against a Jew is fine, but against other immigrants, it's alright.

Firstly, I don't think you're saying what you intended to say. Secondly, how do you derive this conclusion from my post? I even said that I consider the slogan "Heimatliebe statt Marokkaner-Diebe" distasteful and inappropriate. Thirdly, Jews are Middle Eastern too... Fourthly, I'll admit that I care about discrimination against Jews more than about discrimination against other people (which does not mean I don't care about that) - just as the left (and most other minority groups) care more about discrimination against other people than against Jews. Fifthly, discrimination against Eastern Europeans solely stems from "they took our jobs!1!1!!" sentiments, which are by definition stupid.

[DavidB.]

I think Bavaria being a part of Germany would prevent a Bavarian FPÖ from getting as strong as, say, the Upper Austrian FPÖ, even if these areas have otherwise broadly similar historical and demographical characteristics: after all, Bavarians/Germans cannot delude themselves into believing that they were the "first victims" of WWII.

Besides, it was not DPP who instigated SD to become a (bad) copycat: SD decided that for themselves. So that isn't comparable to the hypothetical scenario in which the FPÖ decides to run in Bavaria.

[DavidB.]

It seems you'd be fine with voting for the FPO, a racist party against Muslims and a partly- xenophobic party, if they're a Jew and aren't specifically racist towards Jews, which means you'd be open to voting for a racist party towards Muslims.

Well, if my rebuttal didn't convince you, then so be it. I don't really care if some random Australian seeks to mischaracterize my views

[DavidB.]

What type of person actually wants SPO-FPO coalition?

White working-class people who think such a coalition can be tough on "foreigner issues" while not being too pro-business/right-wing on the economy (as opposed to FPÖ/ÖVP or FPÖ/ÖVP/NEOS). Vienna has a lot of these people.

[DavidB.]

New "scandal":

Private Austrian TV channels ProSieben, Sat1-Puls4 and RTL-Group are all refusing to broadcast 4 final 30-second FPÖ-ads for the Vienna state election.

The thing is that I saw several SPÖ-ads already during their breaks ...

If these channels are private then what is the problem?

Also, how does one become mayor? Simply being the leader of the biggest party in a coalition?

The fact that FPÖ voters are most (!) likely to vote, at least according to themselves, might be a sign that they are indeed going to be close to the SPÖ. I could see them reaching 34% by now.