Orange County, CA (UC Irvine): Biden +8

[wbrocks67]

Biden +9, 53-44 in 2020

https://twitter.com/VanceUlrich/status/1786555999698206944

[xavier110]

Anywhere with white collar college educated professionals is Biden Country.

[GAinDC]

Good result for Biden, however I'd like to see him build on his 2020 margin here, not just match it.

I'd love to see more county polls in the swing states, since it may give us a clearer picture of where things stand.

If this is accurate, it shows that Biden is holding up well in educated, affluent, diversifying suburban communities. Also bodes well for Cobb/Gwinnett (GA), Oakland/Kent (MI) and collar counties (PA), but still has work to do.

[wnwnwn]

Anywhere with white collar college educated professionals is Biden Country.

Outside of the south*
Also, what makes OC a Biden county are hsipanics and asians.

[GAinDC]

Anywhere with white collar college educated professionals is Biden Country.

Outside of the south*
Also, what makes OC a Biden county are hsipanics and asians.

The Atlanta suburbs exist

[SnowLabrador]

Good poll, but not good enough.

[Sbane]

Good result for Biden, however I'd like to see him build on his 2020 margin here, not just match it.

I'd love to see more county polls in the swing states, since it may give us a clearer picture of where things stand.

If this is accurate, it shows that Biden is holding up well in educated, affluent, diversifying suburban communities. Also bodes well for Cobb/Gwinnett (GA), Oakland/Kent (MI) and collar counties (PA), but still has work to do.

One thing to keep in mind about Orange county is that it is surprisingly working class. Sure it has places like Irvine, the south coast and the beach cities but it also has places like Santa Ana and central Anaheim. There are also lots of middle class areas like La Habra, Buena Park, Garden Grove etc that don't fully fit the mold of affluent and well educated suburbs. It is a decidedly middle class area full of non-whites that polls are suggesting are fleeing from Biden. This is actually a decent poll for him considering all that.

[Kamala's side hoe]

One thing to keep in mind about Orange county is that it is surprisingly working class. Sure it has places like Irvine, the south coast and the beach cities but it also has places like Santa Ana and central Anaheim. There are also lots of middle class areas like La Habra, Buena Park, Garden Grove etc that don't fully fit the mold of affluent and well educated suburbs. It is a decidedly middle class area full of non-whites that polls are suggesting are fleeing from Biden. This is actually a decent poll for him considering all that.

Yeah the race and ideology crosstabs look quite good for Biden considering he's an unpopular D running for reelection. If he actually wins Orange County by 8% that's a minimal R swing from 2020. (Not that I expect the R swing in CA to be particularly strong there).

[slothdem]

Good result for Biden, however I'd like to see him build on his 2020 margin here, not just match it.

I'd love to see more county polls in the swing states, since it may give us a clearer picture of where things stand.

If this is accurate, it shows that Biden is holding up well in educated, affluent, diversifying suburban communities. Also bodes well for Cobb/Gwinnett (GA), Oakland/Kent (MI) and collar counties (PA), but still has work to do.

If you gave me access to just one county election result, and it was Biden +8 in Orange County, I would be pretty confident in him winning. The slippage with Hispanics and especially Asians since 2018 is real and has been repeatedly born out in elections. If Biden has matched his 2020 performance in OC then that means he has improved with white voters to a degree that is probably enough to carry the midwestern swing states.