NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[Mr.Phips]

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Still uncounted are Brookhaven and Riverhead --two Republican townships, and there are more registered republicans who took absentee ballots than there were democrats. The feeling here is Bishop had to do better than he did in his hometown of Southampton, and better than he has in East Hampton, which is 2 to 1 Democrat. I predict Randy by 800 votes.

Riverhead has been counted.   Some of Brookhaven has been counted, but most still remains (41 of 294 ED's).  Everything else has been counted.

Bishop won Brookhaven narrowly on Election Day (50.11-49.82).

As far as more registered Republican absentees than Democrats.  That is true, but the GOP registration advantage with the absentees is actually smaller than the GOP registration advantage in the district. 

If that's the case, Bishop should come out ahead by 25 votes. 

[Torie]

It looks like the Pubbie has finally nailed down NY-25, so it looks like +63 seats for the Pubbies. I am a genius.

Yeah, it seems that NY-01 is your biggest potential foil, and that one is drifting D (like a glacier though).

God loves me.

[Smash255]

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Still uncounted are Brookhaven and Riverhead --two Republican townships, and there are more registered republicans who took absentee ballots than there were democrats. The feeling here is Bishop had to do better than he did in his hometown of Southampton, and better than he has in East Hampton, which is 2 to 1 Democrat. I predict Randy by 800 votes.

Riverhead has been counted.   Some of Brookhaven has been counted, but most still remains (41 of 294 ED's).  Everything else has been counted.

Bishop won Brookhaven narrowly on Election Day (50.11-49.82).

As far as more registered Republican absentees than Democrats.  That is true, but the GOP registration advantage with the absentees is actually smaller than the GOP registration advantage in the district.  

If that's the case, Bishop should come out ahead by 25 votes.  

I would say quite a bit more than that, my guess would be 250-300 or so.  On top of that you also have the challenged ballots (which have yet to be counted).  Altschuler has challenged over 200 more ballots than Bishop.

 The absentees were more Democratic than the district as a whole.  Granted we don't know which precincts in Brookhaven were already counted, but out of those the 41 that were Bishop picked up 45 votes over Altschuler.   The areas outside of Brookhaven went to Altschuler by a shade under 1% on Election Day, but as far as the absentees, Bishop picked up about 350 votes on Altschuler.  62.6% of the Election Day ballots were cast in Brookhaven, the absentees were probably a little less than that.

[Sam Spade]

For the last week and a half, the only race that's been up in the air is NY-1, as I remarked a few days ago.  The rest is just noise...

I agree with the analysis though - Bishop should win.  And we still have to wait for the California guys and Ortiz to come to their senses.  NY-25 was perhaps a 1 in 100 turnaround but not if only Wayne County absentees are left - that horse is out of the barn.

[minionofmidas]

There goes my hope for  Bishop win in the single digits.

Oh, and Torie: Blind chick. Grain.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Buerkle ends up with a 567-vote lead after all the votes have been counted.

[cinyc]

Buerkle ends up with a 567-vote lead after all the votes have been counted.

With only 240 challenged ballots left outstanding, it's hard to see how Buerkle can lose this.

[rbt48]

I welcome any help on this spredsheet.  I seem to have one House Republican too many recorded.  

I'm assuming that CA-11, CA-20, and NY-1 end up Democratic and NY-25 and TX-27 end up in the GOP column.

Here is the spreadsheet:  http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_Elections_Cong_Gov.pdf

[Meeker]

I welcome any help on this spredsheet.  I seem to have one House Republican too many recorded.  

I'm assuming that CA-11, CA-20, and NY-1 end up Democratic and NY-25 and TX-27 end up in the GOP column.

Here is the spreadsheet:  http://members.cox.net/rbt48/weather/Presidential_Elections/2010_Elections_Cong_Gov.pdf

IN-03 is throwing you off. You're counting it as a pick-up.

[minionofmidas]

Delaware went Democratic in 2010. I think that's the error in question.

Also, in Alabama and Hawaii you're not listing 2008 but rather the immediate pre-election. But I suppose that's not so much an error as simply a misleading column title. That would also arguably explain your Indiana "error" as IN-3 was vacant immediately before the election. (I could scroll down to New York to verify my assumptions, I suppose, but I'll stop here. It's probably Delaware that threw you off.)

[rbt48]

Delaware went Democratic in 2010. I think that's the error in question.

Also, in Alabama and Hawaii you're not listing 2008 but rather the immediate pre-election. But I suppose that's not so much an error as simply a misleading column title. That would also arguably explain your Indiana "error" as IN-3 was vacant immediately before the election. (I could scroll down to New York to verify my assumptions, I suppose, but I'll stop here. It's probably Delaware that threw you off.)

Thanks.  Yes, I blew it on Delaware. 

Also bad were my column titles.  I meant to show immediate pre-election rather than 2008.  I do appreciate the help from Meeker and Slightly Cross Brigade.   I'll get it fixed tonight as I don't have access from my office.

[Smash255]

Bouncing around a bit so far today.

I was about to post the update from this morning that showed Altshuler going back in front and taking a 9 or 10 point lead, but the last update came through and now Bishop is ahead by 16 or 17  (Bishop camps says 17, Altschuler 16).

Altschuler's camp has said that Bishop is challenging the ballot of the mother of Brookhaven GOP Chairman Jesse Garcia.  Previously the Altschuler camp challenged the ballots of Tim Bishop's parents as well as the son of outgoing State Senator Brian Foley.  As of Friday, Altschuler challenged 212 more ballots than Bishop.

http://www.newsday.com/long-island/politics/spin-cycle-1.812042/1st-c-d-bishop-now-ahead-by-16-or-17-1.2486389

[Smash255]

Bishop is now up 69 votes, and Altschuler has continued to challenge even more ballots than Bishop.  Was 212 more on Friday, is 262 now (864-602).  108 of the 294 districts in Brookhaven remain to be counted.   3,683 ballots remain to be counted, the GOP has a 2.88% registration edge  The 2.88% edge on registration is less than the district advantage (6%) and less than the 3.45% advantage the GOP had with the overall absentee count.


http://www.newsday.com/long-island/politics/spin-cycle-1.812042/1st-c-d-bishop-s-lead-grows-to-69-votes-1.2487067

[J. J.]

So NY-1 might stay Democratic?  NY-25 looks Republican.

The two CA districts are Democratic and the TX coastal district is Republican.  Final is:

R  242

D  193

GOP gain, from 2008, is +64.  Democratic loss, from 2008, is -63.

GOP numbers off of post 1978 high is +10.  Democratic numbers are off post 1978 low -13.  In the Senate, both parties are off post 1978 highs and lows.

[Smash255]

So NY-1 might stay Democratic?  NY-25 looks Republican.

The two CA districts are Democratic and the TX coastal district is Republican.  Final is:

R  242

D  193

GOP gain, from 2008, is +64.  Democratic loss, from 2008, is -63.

GOP numbers off of post 1978 high is +10.  Democratic numbers are off post 1978 low -13.  In the Senate, both parties are off post 1978 highs and lows.

Yeah NY-01 will likely stay Dem.  Based off what is left, the results of what has been counted, etc my guess is Bishop will be up roughly 250-300 or so when the absentee count is complete, and will likely add a few hundred more when the challenged ballots are dealt with.

[xavier110]

Phew! We surely dodged a bullet there with Altschuler.

[Smash255]

According to Twitter Bishop now up 137 votes.  2,907 absentee ballots remain to be counted (no word yet on party breakout) also another 1,588 ballots have been challenged (Altschuler had  challenged about 260 more as of the previous update)

[Smash255]

Bishop up 206 votes with the counting ended for the day.  125 election districts left to count with a total of 1,912 absentee ballots left to count according to a Bishop spokesperson (no word yet on the political breakdown of those absentees).  Altschuler also continued to challenge more ballots than Bishop (1,051-714)

http://www.newsday.com/long-island/politics/spin-cycle-1.812042/1st-c-d-bishop-ends-day-up-206-votes-1.2487842?showAll=true

[Sam Spade]

So Ortiz finally conceded...

http://www.rollcall.com/news/-200857-1.html

[J. J.]

Okay GOP at 241, officially, and unofficially, 242.

[Keystone Phil]

Remind us lazies which ones have yet to be called. 

Also, is the GOP ahead in one or two of the remaining races?

[Smash255]

Remind us lazies which ones have yet to be called. 

Also, is the GOP ahead in one or two of the remaining races?

Ahead in NY-25

down in CA-11, CA-20 and NY-1

[Meeker]

NY-25, CA-11 and CA-20 are over even if the AP won't call them for whatever reason. NY-01 is the only one truly still up in the air (and only barely so).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

It looks like the last few ballots were counted in CA-20 (Kern County), but they're not up on the state website yet. It netted Costa about 100 votes.

[Smash255]

Numbers slightly differ from each spokesman.  Bishop's spokesman has him up 206 votes, while Altschuler's spokesman has him up 217 votes.   736 ballots left to count.

Also the challenged ballots continue to explode on Altschuler's side.   Altschuler has challenged more than 100 more ballots from early today alone than Bishop has including all 31 affidavit ballots from my alma matter, Stony Brook University.   Altschuler has now challenged 1,150 ballots compared to 720 ballots Bishop has challenged.


http://www.newsday.com/long-island/politics/spin-cycle-1.812042/1st-c-d-bishop-up-206-or-217-altschuler-running-low-on-time-1.2489526?showAll=true