NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[Sam Spade]

unstickied

[Torie]

Taking a look at some of the Precinct data, this is a handful of the heavily Obama Precincts in Horry County


Coastal Lane 1 Obama 509-63,  Fraiser 308-49
Leon  Obama 471-184    Fraiser 296-158
Port Harrelson Obama 495-19,  Fraiser 357-14
Racepath 2 Obama 668-20,  Fraiser 556-17

Yes, I agree. In North Charleston, in CD-1 Obama got 67%, and Fraiser 60%, with the margin drop generated by a bigger drop in the Dem totals than the GOP totals from 2008.  So while Scott probably got a bit more of the black vote (it is hard to be sure, because I see no precinct where Scott got more votes than McCain in a heavily Obama precinct),  it it is probably more generated by a fall off in black turnout. However, the exit polls for 2008 and 2010 for SC show the black percentage of voters was 25% in both instances, so maybe not.

Drop off in the youth vote

Those under 40 made up 36% of the vote in 2008, but 25% in 2010.   Those over 50 made up 42% of the vote in 2008, but 52% in 2010.

Younger whites vote that differently from older whites in SC?  In many conservative states they vote more GOP in general than the olds, such as in Kansas. Youngs in Kansas are very serious about Jesus - yes they are - and the moral rot corroding away America's virtu.

[Nichlemn]

Tim Scott's opponent, Ben Frasier, was also black. So blacks who would might otherwise have "voted their race" would instead be inclined to vote for whatever party they leaned towards, which is usually Democratic.

[Dgov]

Younger whites vote that differently from older whites in SC?  In many conservative states they vote more GOP in general than the olds, such as in Kansas. Youngs in Kansas are very serious about Jesus - yes they are - and the moral rot corroding away America's virtu.

From what I can tell, there's really not much of an age gap in Southern Whites (or Southerners in general actually) like there is in say, California.  McCain actually won the 18-29 SC White vote by slightly more than the overall white vote (mostly because Gen X is abnormally Democrat).  Democrats do better with the Youth in those states because it's significantly blacker/browner than other generations (how much of this is Obamamania turnout though I don't know since I'm using 2008 numbers).  In 2008, the 18-29 Turnout in SC was barely 50% white while the 45-64 was about 75% White.  Obama won the former age group by 10 points and lost the latter by 22.

Obama even did only 3% better than the White vote average in Virginia and Florida, both where much of the population is decidedly not southern.  The only "Southern" states where there was a big age gap in white voters were North Carolina (where Obama won the young by 12 despite losing the rest of them by about 35), and Tennessee (where Obama lost young whites by 8 and lost the rest of them by 30)

If you measure for Congressional Races rather than the presidential, it gets weirder still.  In 2008 Texas, Cornyn did 6 points worse with the white 18-29s than the white overall, but actually managed to do 5 points better with Young Hispanics than with Hispanics overall, which is why he won the minority white 18-29 Demographic in the State.

[cinyc]

As expected, Miller is appealing the decision to the Alaska Supreme Court.  Arguments will be heard on Friday.

[Smash255]

Younger whites vote that differently from older whites in SC?  In many conservative states they vote more GOP in general than the olds, such as in Kansas. Youngs in Kansas are very serious about Jesus - yes they are - and the moral rot corroding away America's virtu.

From what I can tell, there's really not much of an age gap in Southern Whites (or Southerners in general actually) like there is in say, California.  McCain actually won the 18-29 SC White vote by slightly more than the overall white vote (mostly because Gen X is abnormally Democrat).  Democrats do better with the Youth in those states because it's significantly blacker/browner than other generations (how much of this is Obamamania turnout though I don't know since I'm using 2008 numbers).  In 2008, the 18-29 Turnout in SC was barely 50% white while the 45-64 was about 75% White.  Obama won the former age group by 10 points and lost the latter by 22.

Obama even did only 3% better than the White vote average in Virginia and Florida, both where much of the population is decidedly not southern.  The only "Southern" states where there was a big age gap in white voters were North Carolina (where Obama won the young by 12 despite losing the rest of them by about 35), and Tennessee (where Obama lost young whites by 8 and lost the rest of them by 30)

If you measure for Congressional Races rather than the presidential, it gets weirder still.  In 2008 Texas, Cornyn did 6 points worse with the white 18-29s than the white overall, but actually managed to do 5 points better with Young Hispanics than with Hispanics overall, which is why he won the minority white 18-29 Demographic in the State.

One thing to keep in mind is the subsets of exit polls tend to have the same moe issues as the subsets do in polls.  For example the Texas young Hispanic vote you mention.  They make up 4% of respondents in an exit poll of 2,049, so you are basically dealing with a poll of 72-92 respondents.

[Alcon]

Not to mention that exit polls aren't truly random samples to begin with, so it's not just a margin-of-error thing.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Anyone else bet that if a poll from Vermont showing a Republican beating Obama among blacks appeared Dgov would freak out?

[tpfkaw]

That's not a terribly implausible scenario, as there are about 5 black people in Vermont.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That's not a terribly implausible scenario, as there are about 5 black people in Vermont.

But don't you know that subsamples in polls are ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS RIGHT NO MATTER HOW SMALL!!!!11!!!! [/Dgov]

[cinyc]

As expected, the Alaska Supreme Court ruled against Miller this afternoon.  The federal judge who told Miller to go to the state courts first will hold a hearing on Monday to hear any remaining federal constitutional issues not taken up by the Alaskan Supreme Court.  That will likely go over about as well as Miller's state case.

It's still over.

The Alaska Supreme's opinion is available here.

[Landslide Lyndon]

How sweet!
Murkowski has become the Democrats best friend in the senate. Reid must sent a thank you note to sister Sarah.

[Torie]

As expected, the Alaska Supreme Court ruled against Miller this afternoon.  The federal judge who told Miller to go to the state courts first will hold a hearing on Monday to hear any remaining federal constitutional issues not taken up by the Alaskan Supreme Court.  That will likely go over about as well as Miller's state case.

It's still over.

The Alaska Supreme's opinion is available here.

Why do you think Miller humiliated himself this way, doing a Don Quixote, except in his instance an ignoble one?  I mean the guy is a f'ing lawyer from Yale isn't he? So he does not have the Palin excuse. He actually should know the ropes on this.

[Dgov]

That's not a terribly implausible scenario, as there are about 5 black people in Vermont.

But don't you know that subsamples in polls are ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS RIGHT NO MATTER HOW SMALL!!!!11!!!! [/Dgov]

Do I honestly have to make that clear before every post?  I kind of assumed that the people posting here would have enough common sense to know that when I'm using exit polls, I'M USING EXIT POLLS.  Your mileage may vary.

[Alcon]

That's not a terribly implausible scenario, as there are about 5 black people in Vermont.

But don't you know that subsamples in polls are ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS RIGHT NO MATTER HOW SMALL!!!!11!!!! [/Dgov]

Do I honestly have to make that clear before every post?  I kind of assumed that the people posting here would have enough common sense to know that when I'm using exit polls, I'M USING EXIT POLLS.  Your mileage may vary.

That doesn't really matter.  Exit polls filter out likely voters who don't vote, but are more prone to non-representative sampling, and either way subsamples in exit polls are basically just as bad as with polls.

[cinyc]

That's not a terribly implausible scenario, as there are about 5 black people in Vermont.

But don't you know that subsamples in polls are ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS RIGHT NO MATTER HOW SMALL!!!!11!!!! [/Dgov]

Do I honestly have to make that clear before every post?  I kind of assumed that the people posting here would have enough common sense to know that when I'm using exit polls, I'M USING EXIT POLLS.  Your mileage may vary.

That doesn't really matter.  Exit polls filter out likely voters who don't vote, but are more prone to non-representative sampling, and either way subsamples in exit polls are basically just as bad as with polls.

Not really.  Exit polls usually have much larger samples than your typical poll (often 2,000+ respondents), making the margins of error on subsamples much lower than your typical poll.  Thus, while the subsample MoE will be higher than for the overall exit poll, all things being equal, subsample exit poll results are more likely to be within the margin of error than in your typical regular poll.  Not that exit polls don't have their own unique biases, including potential selection bias that may or may not be more egregious in an in-person poll than a phone poll.

Why do you think Miller humiliated himself this way, doing a Don Quixote, except in his instance an ignoble one?  I mean the guy is a f'ing lawyer from Yale isn't he? So he does not have the Palin excuse. He actually should know the ropes on this.

I don't think Miller thinks he's humiliating himself.  He views it as fighting "for the integrity of the election" - and for what he believes to be the correct legal result.   Also, the Palin and Murkowski factions of the Alaska Republican party absolutely hate each other.  Miller is fighting this battle on behalf of the Palin wing of the party.  And he has the money, so why not?

According to his recent press release, Miller will continue with his federal appeal, but will allow the state to certify the election results in the interim.

[Alcon]

^^

cinyc -- I understand that; my point was assuming that all things are equal.  Considering how small that subsamples like that are even on larger-sample exit polls, I assumed he believed that exit polls were inherently prone to less statistical noise.  Either way, even the given exit poll sample is not large/random enough to so strongly draw that conclusion, IMO.

[Lunar]

I don't think Miller thinks he's humiliating himself.  He views it as fighting "for the integrity of the election" - and for what he believes to be the correct legal result.   Also, the Palin and Murkowski factions of the Alaska Republican party absolutely hate each other.  Miller is fighting this battle on behalf of the Palin wing of the party.  And he has the money, so why not?

Future electoral prospects? Voters don't like sore losers.

[cinyc]

I don't think Miller thinks he's humiliating himself.  He views it as fighting "for the integrity of the election" - and for what he believes to be the correct legal result.   Also, the Palin and Murkowski factions of the Alaska Republican party absolutely hate each other.  Miller is fighting this battle on behalf of the Palin wing of the party.  And he has the money, so why not?

Future electoral prospects? Voters don't like sore losers.

Honestly, I don't think Miller has any, anyway.  The Murkowski machine so sullied his reputation that he can't recover.  That happened because she pretty much ignored him during the primary and had to go nuclear.

[Landslide Lyndon]

The Murkowski machine so sullied his reputation that he can't recover.  

LMAO!