IA PrimR: Public Policy Polling: Paul actually takes the lead

[TheGlobalizer]

At this point, Gingrich isn't going to win Iowa. Its down to the ground game now, and he is far behind the others. This is a win-win for Romney - he wins Iowa, he has the nomination. If he loses to another, that candidate and Gingrich will likely split up the vote in SC. Unless there is a shakeup soon, i dont see a good path for a Gingrich victory without Iowa, and who exactly would be left to try and challenge Mitt??

This will be interesting.

Basically, this.  Huntsman will start to show up in NH, very interested to see PPP's results there.  Wouldn't be surprised by Romney/Paul/Huntsman/Gingrich.  The real question is whether Paul can make his case to the religious right.  I think he has an argument but he needs to make it more forcefully and in terms they can relate to.

One counterpoint to the ceiling discussion - if Paul can break the electability meme, he could take off.  A lot of his ceiling seems to be based around the idea that he can't win, and Republicans REALLY want to beat Obama.

[greenforest32]

Paul really isn't going anywhere guys. Look at those numbers. He only gets a >25% plurality in Iowa which I doubt is going to be repeated in other states.

The real fight will be Romney v. the candidate that Bachmann/Santorum/Perry/Gingrich's followers get behind (which isn't going to be Paul or Huntsman).

It will be pathetic if the not-Romney vote can't even get behind one candidate and Romney squeaks by with a plurality.

But yeah the real story here looks like the Newt train going off track

This primary is hilarious

[Antonio the Sixth]

ROFL, I can't believe this. So Paul is set to be the january's fad ?

This primary is such a trainwreck...

[SPQR]

One of the fastest collapses I can recall...

[Phony Moderate]

Some of the spin in this thread is actually more hillarious than the poll itself.

[Averroës Nix]

So Newt is actually fizzling out far quicker than Herman Cain did. Fascinating.

Not really surprising to see this in Iowa, since this is typically the most volatile time of the campaign and voters there are much more conscious of what's going.

I do wonder whether other polls will reflect this decline for Gingrich. Both Paul and Romney have scored support in the low double-digits in at least one recent poll. That said, if Gingrich is declining, it might be a bad thing for Paul. It's probably just early enough that either Santorum, Bachmann, or Perry will be able to consolidate the loose support.

(Also, has anything else happened to Santorum? Hard to believe that his trading price on Intrade tripled on news of this poll alone.)

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I absolutely called this last night.

Before this thread is submerged in a deluge of gleeful Paulites, it should be noted that he only gained a mere two points.

The real story is obviously the Gingrich collapse. Haha, Newt Gingrich.

Yeah, going off of PPP's crosstabs, Paul doesn't have much room for growth. His hard ceiling in Iowa appears to be somewhere between 25%-30%. He just isn't that popular among Gingrich supporters to get much of a bounce.

Again, Paul has been shown to be less like a house and more like an elevator; he can cleave off more support over time. Anyway, going by the crosstabs about a month ago, it would have been impossible for Paul to get to where he is.

[Napoleon]

Paul's ceiling goes up as more and more liberals cross over to support him...making this thread ironic.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

Damn.... c'mon Santorum!!!

[Vosem]

Santorum has really always been the most tolerable of the potential FOTMs.

[Tender Branson]

It looks like the upcoming NH poll from PPP will look a lot like the ARG one ...

[Averroës Nix]

Paul has the lead in the newly-released Insider Advantage poll, too (which, incidentally, has Santorum at an unbelievably low 3%, and Perry just behind Romney in 3rd). RCP average for Iowa is now 22% Paul, 20% Romney, 16% Gingrich, 12% Perry.

[Free Palestine]

[Mehmentum]

Someone update the map for this poll!

[M]

Someone update the map for this poll!

He did, Tender has a stickied thread now.