Romney to announce running mate on Saturday @9am ET in Norfolk, VA

[RogueBeaver]

No one's going to "kill" anyone. Substance is subjective in this case (since everyone mentioned is knowledgeable on the issues) and style is an eyelash either way. Cheney-Edwards was a classic but I doubt it moved many votes. After all, they didn't top the ticket.

[RogueBeaver]

NYT again hints that the selection will be within the week.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/18/us/politics/romney-considers-early-vice-presidential-announcement.html?gwh=1D3F47C1008F37C6F2E6E071BFE93397

[RogueBeaver]

Portman says he doesn't want it. Team Romney is putting out more conflicting news- NRO says Friday, NYDN says when Romney returns from overseas. One of the reasons I don't think the rollout this week- way too much surrogate work. I don't recall Biden/Bayh/Kaine doing that just before Obama picked Biden.

http://www.businessinsider.com/rob-portman-says-hes-staying-in-the-senate-audio-2012-7

[RogueBeaver]

News of Biden's Secret Service protection was leaked 3 days out- I just checked Google News. If the announcement's Friday and we're at Wednesday... as I said, doubtful.

Portman: If Romney wanted Bush on the ballot he would have picked Jeb.

Most betted on: Isn't that Pawlenty?

[RogueBeaver]

Apparently Pawlenty's site is down for updating, but surely it wouldn't be this obvious. Would it?

Intrade: Who cares what Intrade says?

[RogueBeaver]

Romney's going to be headlining a CA fundraiser with George Shultz and Meg Whitman among others on Sunday, throwing this alleged schedule into even more doubt.

[RogueBeaver]

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2008/08/us-secret-servi/

[RogueBeaver]

Pawlenty was practically screaming about how un-boring he is, even offering to "show my tats" for Cavuto.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0712/78687.html

[RogueBeaver]

This is a Pawtern which we've seen all too often. Wimpiness followed by hilarious overcompensation and hasty retreat. Plus who says "tats" as short for tattoos? Reminds me of when he made awkward Lady Gaga references during the debates.

Apparently one reason why Romney supposedly likes him is because he's willing to do literally anything they ask. Cause a yes man is totally who he's looking for as Veep.

Finally, in case the "Pawlenty's site thing is down" thing is up- apparently that's not how redesign is done. Another part of the head fake.

[RogueBeaver]

If you're getting that Bushed might as well go all-in and pick Jeb.

[RogueBeaver]

Thanks. I just don't see Pawlenty as a viable option... and this "best surrogate" meme is easily disproved by a few clicks around YouTube. Most active surrogate maybe, but definitely not best. This might be my contrarianism talking but I seriously doubt that Romney is going to drop the name a month in advance. Those who know don't talk and those who don't know talk, that's how I see things.

Pawlenty looks good on paper but in practice not so much. That, IMO, basically summarizes his problems as a potential running mate.

Here are the Ryan pros and cons as I see them.


Cons

1) Mediscare: Potential problem but Romney has already endorsed P2P as his governing document and literally, publicly, hugged its author. They can't disengage even if they wanted to, which they don't. If Ryan's on the shortlist this has already been priced in. Plus Ryan's the only one who can explain his plan smoothly.

2) Executive experience: Already priced in. And/or it could be that Romney, who knows a thing or 2 about HR from his Bain days, sees executive potential in Ryan even if he's never had an opportunity to exercise it.

3) Acceptance: No one goes through a virtual colonoscopy for the lulz, plus by one account Romney and Myers are calling all the shortlisters personally. You don't go that far if you intend on saying no.

4) Too risky: See 1/2. Romney didn't get to where he was in the business world by playing 100% safe but by taking calculated risk. Which this would be, as were his primary stances on entitlements and immigration.


Pros

1) $$$: Proven major-league fundraiser on his own.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0712/78778.html

2) Juices the base: No explanation required.

3) Excellent communicator: Even Dems such as Jon Chait will (very) grudgingly acknowledge this.

4) Made for soft-bio background: Small-town guy made big, worked way through college, etc.

5) Aced the chem test: No explanation required.

6) Historical precedent: Younger star from another wing of the party than the nominee's.

[RogueBeaver]

It won't be Jindal, they just met this week. Romney isn't going to pick someone he doesn't know- and Jindal, a fellow management consultant, knows this.

[RogueBeaver]

All this hoop-blah about Jindal, Ryan and Pawlenty doesn't change the fact that Senator Rob Portman is still everything that the Romney campaign is looking for. 

He failed the chem test and is Bushier than any non-Bush Bushie. Not happening.

[RogueBeaver]

Ed Morrissey interviews T-Paw.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ygcTqtS31g&feature=player_embedded

[RogueBeaver]

[RogueBeaver]

I'm beginning to  move away from an assumption of Pawlenty and towards thinking it'll be something like a tossup between him and Ryan at this point.

Out of curiosity, what changed the equation for you?

[RogueBeaver]

Largely agreed, except I think Portman has more gravitas than Pawlenty.

[RogueBeaver]

Drawn out affair? The pick is never announced till 3 weeks pre-convention, minimum. They head-faked us about a possible July rollout.

[RogueBeaver]

Also from that Morrissey interview: the "Come back later" tag on his website means nothing.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[RogueBeaver]

Not during the Olympics IMO.

[RogueBeaver]

NPR has a short Ryan profile up.

http://www.npr.org/2012/07/24/157246809/budget-hawk-ryan-offers-romney-risk-reward

[RogueBeaver]

Myers name-drops someone who isn't being vetted.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/07/24/romney-vp-vetting-chief-mentions-mcdonnell/

Both McDonnell and Jindal stumping in Iowa for Romney. Rubio will be stumping in Nevada also.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/burns-haberman/2012/07/mcdonnell-hitting-iowa-for-romney-130008.html

[RogueBeaver]

What happened to Rubio, by the way? Did they stop vetting him, and if so, why?

He was never vetted, Romney's comment a month ago notwithstanding. I'm sure he gets a primetime speaking slot.

[RogueBeaver]

Not much more than Jeb lobbying Romney to pick Rubio.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0712/78998.html

[RogueBeaver]

Romney: next week will be the earliest time slot.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0712/79010.html