Romney's lose-lose situation.

[retromike22]

First, this is how I see the two scenarios after Michigan:

Scenario 1: Romney loses Michigan to Santorum, and then Santorum consolidates the anti-Romney vote.

On Super Tuesday:
Romney wins Idaho, Massachusetts, Vermont and Virginia
Gingrich wins Georgia
Santorum wins: Alaska, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee.

Gingrich does not win any future states.

Scenario 2: Romney wins Michigan, and Santorum's support collapses. The anti-Romney vote goes back to... (their only hope)... Gingrich.

On Super Tuesday:
Romney wins Idaho, Massachusetts, Vermont and Virginia
Gingrich wins Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee,
Santorum wins: Alaska, North Dakota, Ohio

Santorum wins only a few additional states, Gingrich surges.

I can't see a situation where Romney wins any states on super Tuesday other than Idaho, Massachusetts, Vermont, and Virginia. This is because outside of the northeast, Florida, and the Mormon states, Romney needs Gingrich and Santorum to split the conservative, anti-romney vote. Yes I know that's obvious, but I've noticed something during the primaries and caucuses so far:

The conservative vote doesn't always split, and when it does, it has not split anywhere close to evenly. Let's start in South Carolina, where the current race of Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum began. I'm going to exclude Paul because he is in a category of his own, and does not gain much from the waxes and wanes of Gingrich or Santorum. I won't include Missouri because Gingrich was not on the ballot, and we have seen what happens when there is only one conservative anti-Romney candidate vs. Romney.

This are the numbers of Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum in the primaries and caucuses starting with SC. These are each followed by the (Gingrich-Santorum difference in percent points)

South Carolina: Gingrich 40, Romney 28, Santorum 17 (23)
Florida: Romney 46, Gingrich 32, Santorum 13 (19)
Nevada: Romney 50, Gingrich 21, Santorum 10 (11)
Minnesota: Santorum 45, Romney 17, Gingrich 11 (34)
Colorado: Santorum 40, Romney 35, Gingrich 13 (27)
Maine: Romney 39, Santorum 18, Gingrich 6 (12)

In none of these cases was the difference between Gingrich and Santorum smaller than 11 points.  Ranking them by their difference, we see this:

Nevada: Romney 50, Gingrich 21, Santorum 10 (11)
Maine: Romney 39, Santorum 18, Gingrich 6 (12)
Florida: Romney 46, Gingrich 32, Santorum 13 (19)
South Carolina: Gingrich 40, Romney 28, Santorum 17 (23)
Colorado: Santorum 40, Romney 35, Gingrich 13 (27)
Minnesota: Santorum 45, Romney 17, Gingrich 11 (34)

So far, in every state where the difference between Santorum and Gingrich was below 20 points, Romney has won. In states where the difference was above 20 points, Romney did not win.

I'm curious to see if this will continue.

I call this Romney's lose-lose situation, because he will either lose the nomination to Santorum or to Gingrich, simply because Santorum and Gingrich's support is not equal enough, in enough states so that Romney can win.