Senate Race Predictions.

[AuH2O]

In order of confidence (real races only):

KY: Bunning
SC: DeMint
NC: Burr
FL: Martinez
SD: Thune
CO: Coors
OK: Coburn
LA: Vitter
AK: Knowles

The last 2 are very soft... I would not actually bet on Knowles winning; Vitter has to be the favorite here because he has 2 chances to win; I think he will get 50% on Nov. 2, but even if he doesn't, it's not over, because Kennedy could beat John, and Vitter would beat him, and Vitter could beat John head-to-head (despite widespread claims to the contrary).

[AuH2O]

Everyone is calling Knowles in AK (including me), but rbt is correct in his analysis. The problem is that the Senate race almost takes precedence over the Presidential race, because the latter has a predictable outcome.

Given that, it is entirely possible people could vote first on the Senate, and then on the Presidential. In that case, Knowles has an advantage.

There will be coattails from Bush, so I expect the race to be decided by a very small margin. Though I think Murkowski could surprise some people and win by 3-4% if everything goes her way.

[AuH2O]

The following people will be new US Senators:

Erskine Bowles (NC)
Brad Carson (OK)
Betty Castor (FL)
Joe Hoeffel (PA)
Johnny Isakson (GA)
Tony Knowles (AK)
Dan Mongiardo (KY)
Barack Obama (IL)
Ken Salazar (CO)
Inez Tenebaum (SC)

and either Chris John or John Kennedy (LA)

hahahahha