Bosnia and Herzegovina general election - October 12, 2014

[politicus]

It's getting close and we need a place to put the results and talk about them.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bosnia_and_Herzegovina_general_election,_2014

They elect:

1) The three members of the confederate Presidency (1 Serb, 1 Bosniak, 1 Croat)
2) A confederate House of Representatives  (14 from Srpska and 28 from the Fed)
3) Presidents of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska
4) House of Representatives for the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and National Assembly for Republika  Srpska.


  

[politicus]

I will try a short party description:

Srpska is the easiest because they only have four parties (of any significance), while the Fed has nine. It's mostly a matter of how crazy their version of nationalism is.

Parties in Republika Srpska

SNSD - Alliance of Independent Social Democrats under President Milorad Dodik are Serb nationalists and Social Democrats. Dodiks political gimmick is separatism and a breakaway from Bosnia, which he threatens all the time - so far without acting on it.  They have 8 seats out of 14 in the House.

Alliance for Changes:

SDS - Serb Democratic Party is a populist, Islamophobic and ultranationalist party started by former leader, child psychiatrist and war criminal Radovan Karadzic. Its non-separatist, unless Srpska can be united directly with the Motherland. They have 4 seats.

PDP - Party of Democratic Progress is Christian Democratic and a normal centre-right party with ties to Western mainstream parties such as CDU and the Tories. Has one seat and is the least nationalist option.

DNS - Democratic National Alliance or Democratic People's Alliance is a Nationalist Conservative party with a more right wing economic policy than SDS and a slightly less extreme version of Serbian nationalism (but more extreme than SNSD). Has one seat.

Others:

Domovina (Homeland) is an alliance of seven non-Serbian parties incl. SDA and DF, but not SDP.

The Bosnian Social Democrats (SDP) and Muslim SDA currently have a few seats in the National Assembly, as Srpska has a Muslim minority and some Serbs vote for the Bosnian Social Democrats (mostly elderly ex-communists).

[politicus]

Parties in the Federation:

Multiethnic parties

#Social Democratic Party of Bosnia and Herzegovina - SDP HiP is the successor to the old Communist party and a multiethnic, secular Social Democratic party in favour of a united Bosnia. Has 8 seats in the House. It is countrywide and also has a few seats in the Srpska National Assembly.

Democratic Front - DF is a Socialist/Social Democratic, multiethnic and secular party started in 2012 by the Croat member of the Presidency  Željko Komšić as a breakaway from SDP in protest against that they accepted the right wingers in HDZ joining the government. Komšić is an outsider in Bosnian Croatic politics and was elected mainly on Bosniak votes, so he is seen as an illegitimate representative for the Croats by many Croats (and Serbs). No seats in the House.

#People's Party for Work and Betterment - NSRzB is a small Social Liberal, secular and multiethnic (but mainly Croat) party with 1 seat in the House.

Democratic People's Union - DNZ is a strange mix of economic Libertarianism, euro-scepticism, homophobia and local patriotism  founded in 1993 by oligarch and war criminal Fikret Abdić, who led the small Velika Kladuša enclave in NW Bosnia during the war and collaborated with the Serbs. It is Bosniak-Croatian bi-ethnic and committed to regional autonomy for Velika Kladuša. Abdić was in jail 2002-12 for war crimes and is no longer leader of the party. It has 1 seat in the House.


Bosniak parties

Party of Democratic Action - SDA is a moderate Islamist and Bosniak Nationalist centre-right party led by current Bosnian President Bakir Izetbegović, son of war time leader Alija Izetbegović, but deeply divided between supporters of recently diseased former President Sulejman Tihic and the Izetbegović loyalists - both factions awaiting a leadership contest in 2015. Has 7 seats in the House.

Union for a Better Future of Bosnia and Herzegovina - SBB BiH is a right wing populist/ conservative Bosniak party founded in 2009 by media mogul Fahrudin Radončić, the owner of Bosnia's largest daily Dnevni Avaz, as a Bosnian version of Forza Italia. It has 4 seats in the House.

Party for Bosnia and Herzegovina - PBiH was founded by former Prime Minister Haris Silajdžić  in 1997 as a splinter group from SDA and is a secular fairly centrist Conservative Bosniak party. Is in favour of a united Bosnia and wants to dismantle Srpska, but has a better relationship to the Croats than SDA. Haris Silajdžić was President of the Federation 2006-10. It has 2 seats in the House.


Croatian parties

The Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina - HDZ BiH is a Christian Democratic (some say ultraconservative..) and Croatian Nationalist party with ties to its mother party HDZ in Croatia (most Bosnian Croats are Croatian citizens and can vote in Croatian elections). Its goal is a separate Croat entity within Bosnia and it is the strongest Croatian party and has 3 seats in the House.

The Croatian Democratic Union 1990 - HDZ 1990 (the year HDZ BiH was founded, so = "original version") was until recently a more SoCon and HDZ loyal version of HDZ BiH founded as a splinter group in 2006 by former President Božo Ljubić, who earlier this year left them and rejoined HDZ BiH. Seems to be disintegrating with several other senior figures leaving them this year after a moderate takeover of the party in July 2013 when Martin Raguz became chairman and a decision to run on HNZ lists. They oppose an independent Croat entity in Bosnia. Has 1 seat in the House.

#Croatian Party of Rights of Bosnia and Herzegovina - HNZ is a Croatian Nationalist and Conservative party descended from the Croats that were opposed to a Greater Croatia (as HDZ) and wanted a Bosnian-Croatian alliance during the war. Now shares a group with HDZ 1990. Is mainly the anti-HDZ option, but with the same kind of conservative policies apart from not wanting a separate Croat entity. Has 1 seat in the House.

EDIT: The current government in the Federation consists of the three parties marked with an # with the SDP supplying the Prime Minister.

Vjekoslav Bevanda from HDZ is Chairman of the Council of Ministers (= confederate "Prime Minister") leading a government of SDP, HDZ and SNDS, but the confederate government is weak in Bosnia.

[politicus]

US Institute of Peace discussion of the crisis in Bosnia (basically their political structure guarantees nothing happens - gridlock forever - and the economy is in shambles with incompetence and corruption making it worse) and the violent protests against the situation in February-April ("the Bosnian Spring").

"Bosnia and Herzegovina is in the deepest political crisis since the Dayton Peace Agreement ended the war in 1995. Years of political deadlock, dire economic conditions including an unemployment rate hovering above 44 percent, and growing impatience by citizens with their political leaders, fueled violent protests across the country and led a number of government officials to resign. The constitutional structure designed in Dayton succeeded in ending the war but its critics argue that it has prevented the country from developing beyond wartime divisions."

http://www.usip.org/events/general-election-2014-and-the-protests-in-bosnia-change-possible

[politicus]

Former Grand Mufti Mustafa Ceric is running as an independent for the Bosniak seat in the Presidency and is apparently a strong outsider.

[politicus]

Guardian background article with a good snap overview of the current crisis and political situation.

http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/oct/08/bosnia-herzegovina-elections-the-worlds-most-complicated-system-of-government

"The outgoing government and parliament have been dubbed the worst ever. 106 laws were adopted by parliament in the past four years, down from the 180 between 2006-2010. As a comparison, over the same period the Montenegrin government adopted about 350 laws, Serbia 500 and Croatia about 750."

They also quote this report from the Bosnian Center of Civil Initiatives on just how inefficient the Bosnian government is:

http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/article/bosnian-top-govt-marked-worst-so-far

[Zinneke]

http://balkanist.net/bosnia-herzegovina-election-guide-personalities-parties-prospects/2/

Komsic's Democratic Front party could unite the ethnicities in an anti-corruption movement. Though I can't see any progress in Republika Sprska, where reform is most needed, until Dodik is out of office.

[politicus]

http://balkanist.net/bosnia-herzegovina-election-guide-personalities-parties-prospects/2/

Komsic's Democratic Front party could unite the ethnicities in an anti-corruption movement. Though I can't see any progress in Republika Sprska, where reform is most needed, until Dodik is out of office.

Dodik would be replaced with SDS, which is "from the ashes to the fire".

Well, to be fair their leader is less megalomaniac than Dodik, but so are virtually everyone in this universe. Still, I wouldn't exactly call it an improvement.

[CatoMinor]

Why is this one country?

[politicus]

Why is this one country?

That probably wasn't an actual question , but basically because the world community wont let the Serbs leave, since it would reward them even more than they have already been rewarded for the atrocities they committed in the 90s and set a highly problematic precedent.

[YL]

I suspect this is a question with a straightforward answer of "No", but are there any remotely realistic ideas for making Bosnia work better?

[Famous Mortimer]

There is actually.

Communism and forced merger with Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, and Kosovo.

[Velasco]

I suspect this is a question with a straightforward answer of "No", but are there any remotely realistic ideas for making Bosnia work better?

Not in this generation, but the previous answer to this question is nonsensical.

[Velasco]

I understand where you come from, JosepBroz. However, history cannot be reversed and the reconstruction of Yugoslavia is impossible. So, the question is if it's possible to build a new identity for Bosnia and Herzegovina. The current mess is far worse than the old federal system, I'd agree on that if we leave aside that Tito's regime wasn't a democracy -even though it was arguably better than those in other central and eastern European countries- and that Josip Broz was actually the glue of that federation. Given the legacy of resentment left by the war in the 90s, it looks quite hard fixing the country until the wound is closed. Such things take time, at least one or two generations of peaceful coexistence and tolerance. I guess the Serbo-Croat jingoism might evolve into something more civilised, too. I'd oppose vehemently to the annexation of BiH territory by Serbia and Croatia.

[GMantis]

Parties in the Federation:

Multiethnic parties

#Social Democratic Party of Bosnia and Herzegovina - SDP HiP is the successor to the old Communist party and a multiethnic, secular Social Democratic party in favour of a united Bosnia. Has 8 seats in the House. It is countrywide and also has a few seats in the Srpska National Assembly.

Democratic Front - DF is a Socialist/Social Democratic, multiethnic and secular party started in 2012 by the Croat member of the Presidency  Željko Komšić as a breakaway from SDP in protest against that they accepted the right wingers in HDZ joining the government. Komšić is an outsider in Bosnian Croatic politics and was elected mainly on Bosniak votes, so he is seen as an illegitimate representative for the Croats by many Croats (and Serbs). No seats in the House.

#People's Party for Work and Betterment - NSRzB is a small Social Liberal, secular and multiethnic (but mainly Croat) party with 1 seat in the House.

Democratic People's Union - DNZ is a strange mix of economic Libertarianism, euro-scepticism, homophobia and local patriotism  founded in 1993 by oligarch and war criminal Fikret Abdić, who led the small Velika Kladuša enclave in NW Bosnia during the war and collaborated with the Serbs. It is Bosniak-Croatian bi-ethnic and committed to regional autonomy for Velika Kladuša. Abdić was in jail 2002-12 for war crimes and is no longer leader of the party. It has 1 seat in the House.

Of course multi-ethnic is a bit of a misnomer. The SDP, for example receives nearly all of its votes from Bosniaks. On that note, will the Croats' representative again be elected by the Bosniaks for them?

http://balkanist.net/bosnia-herzegovina-election-guide-personalities-parties-prospects/2/

Komsic's Democratic Front party could unite the ethnicities in an anti-corruption movement. Though I can't see any progress in Republika Sprska, where reform is most needed, until Dodik is out of office.

Why would reforms be more needed in Republika Srpska? Unlike the Federation, it isn't divided into cantons to further complicate governing and their citizens seem to be more satisfied than those of the Federation, considering their low participation in the demonstrations at the beginning of the year.

[politicus]

On that note, will the Croats' representative again be elected by the Bosniaks for them?

The election law is unchanged. Both the Bosniak and the Croat member of the Presidency will be elected by the voters that choose to use their vote on them, and since the Bosniaks is the biggest group they can be decisive in electing the Croat member - if many of them choose to vote for a Croat and concentrate behind one candidate to stop HDZ.

SDP may primarily attract Bosniak voters in the Federation, but it is a party with both Croat, Serb, Jewish and Roma members and a long term goal of a united multiethnic secular Bosnia.

[GMantis]

SDP may primarily attract Bosniak voters in the Federation, but it is a party with both Croat, Serb, Jewish and Roma members and a long term goal of a united multiethnic secular Bosnia.

While these declared aims are very noble, a party that receives most of its voters from only one ethnicity is not likely to be very interested in addressing the issues that matter to other ethnicities. And having representatives from other ethnicities won't help if they're considered traitors by their co-ethnics (like the above mentioned Komšić). And depending on how "united" is interpreted, it's not something that would be popular among the Serbs or the Croats.

[Zinneke]

Parties in the Federation:

Multiethnic parties

#Social Democratic Party of Bosnia and Herzegovina - SDP HiP is the successor to the old Communist party and a multiethnic, secular Social Democratic party in favour of a united Bosnia. Has 8 seats in the House. It is countrywide and also has a few seats in the Srpska National Assembly.

Democratic Front - DF is a Socialist/Social Democratic, multiethnic and secular party started in 2012 by the Croat member of the Presidency  Željko Komšić as a breakaway from SDP in protest against that they accepted the right wingers in HDZ joining the government. Komšić is an outsider in Bosnian Croatic politics and was elected mainly on Bosniak votes, so he is seen as an illegitimate representative for the Croats by many Croats (and Serbs). No seats in the House.

#People's Party for Work and Betterment - NSRzB is a small Social Liberal, secular and multiethnic (but mainly Croat) party with 1 seat in the House.

Democratic People's Union - DNZ is a strange mix of economic Libertarianism, euro-scepticism, homophobia and local patriotism  founded in 1993 by oligarch and war criminal Fikret Abdić, who led the small Velika Kladuša enclave in NW Bosnia during the war and collaborated with the Serbs. It is Bosniak-Croatian bi-ethnic and committed to regional autonomy for Velika Kladuša. Abdić was in jail 2002-12 for war crimes and is no longer leader of the party. It has 1 seat in the House.

Of course multi-ethnic is a bit of a misnomer. The SDP, for example receives nearly all of its votes from Bosniaks. On that note, will the Croats' representative again be elected by the Bosniaks for them?

http://balkanist.net/bosnia-herzegovina-election-guide-personalities-parties-prospects/2/

Komsic's Democratic Front party could unite the ethnicities in an anti-corruption movement. Though I can't see any progress in Republika Sprska, where reform is most needed, until Dodik is out of office.

Why would reforms be more needed in Republika Srpska? Unlike the Federation, it isn't divided into cantons to further complicate governing and their citizens seem to be more satisfied than those of the Federation, considering their low participation in the demonstrations at the beginning of the year.

Take a quick look at the unemployment rates in the RS, the rampant chauvinism that disgusts even the supposed reactionaries in Serbia proper, and the fact that Radovan Karadzic's successor party is still in power and openly boasts about the ethnic cleansing of RS.

Furthermore they are the ones blocking any transfer of powers to the Federal government. The secular Croats are willing to give more responsibility to the higher entity.

[politicus]

Take a quick look at the unemployment rates in the RS, the rampant chauvinism that disgusts even the supposed reactionaries in Serbia proper, and the fact that Radovan Karadzic's successor party is still in power and openly boasts about the ethnic cleansing of RS.

Furthermore they are the ones blocking any transfer of powers to the Federal government. The secular Croats are willing to give more responsibility to the higher entity.

SDS is in opposition.

[Zinneke]

Take a quick look at the unemployment rates in the RS, the rampant chauvinism that disgusts even the supposed reactionaries in Serbia proper, and the fact that Radovan Karadzic's successor party is still in power and openly boasts about the ethnic cleansing of RS.

Furthermore they are the ones blocking any transfer of powers to the Federal government. The secular Croats are willing to give more responsibility to the higher entity.

SDS is in opposition.

My mistake, I thought the old SDS had merged with other parties to form the SNSD. Turns out htye still exist. Are they as openly secessionist as Dodik though. In the article i posted above the SDS was called pro-Bosnian by the SNSD. Is there any substantial evidence behind this accusation or is it just part of endless insults tossed between the entities.

[politicus]

Take a quick look at the unemployment rates in the RS, the rampant chauvinism that disgusts even the supposed reactionaries in Serbia proper, and the fact that Radovan Karadzic's successor party is still in power and openly boasts about the ethnic cleansing of RS.

Furthermore they are the ones blocking any transfer of powers to the Federal government. The secular Croats are willing to give more responsibility to the higher entity.

SDS is in opposition.

My mistake, I thought the old SDS had merged with other parties to form the SNSD. Turns out they still exist. Are they as openly secessionist as Dodik though. In the article I posted above the SDS was called pro-Bosnian by the SNSD. Is there any substantial evidence behind this accusation or is it just part of endless insults tossed between the entities.

SDS is against establishing a Srpska mini-state (with Dodik in even more total control than he is today), so they oppose his secessionist project.

In the OP I phrased it: "Its non-separatist, unless Srpska can be united directly with the Motherland", and that's my impression of their position.

[politicus]

An observer group from the International Democracy Institute has the following evaluation in an Election Watch report published two days ago (slightly edited and with my comments in italics):

Races to watch

Races for the Bosnian state Presidency, as well as for Srpska Presidency and Parliament continue to be close.

Presidency:

Bosniak member:

An unprecedented 10 candidates are competing in the race for the Bosniak member of the BiH presidency. The Big Four are: Fahrudin Radončić (SBB), Emir Suljagic (DF), Bakir Izetbegovic (SDA) and Bakir Hadziomerovic (SDP) - who according to local media leads in polls - with slim margins between them. Despite Hadziomerovics lead a slight advantage is usually given to Izetbegovic as the incumbent. He has drawn flack for not responding to any invitations to participate in candidate debates, but in focusing their criticism on Izetbegovic the other candidates have struggled to differentiate their respective plans and positions. The presidency election is pure FPTP with no run-off.

Emir Suljagic would be the best of the bunch (unless you are very conservative), DF is the only real hope of change and accomodation of some of the demands from the protests. SDA/SDP is the (inefficient and corrupt) establishment and SBB Berlusconi style populism.

Croat member:

The outcome for the race for the Croat member is also uncertain, with Dragan Covic (HDZ BiH) and Martin Raguz (HDZ 1990) as the two top candidates. While HDZ BiH’s campaign has focused largely on the so-called “Croat question,” (etablishing a separate Croatian entity in BiH) Covic has used several opportunities to steer messaging to the importance of EU integration and economic development. Raguz has similarly presented a strong European vision for Bosnia.

Its interesting that the new moderate HDZ 1990 is competitive. Martin Raguz is a lot better than Covic.

Serbian member:

Local media report a very close races between Zeljka Cvijanovic (SNSD) and Mladen Ivanic (PDP) (also backed by SDS as part of the opposition Alliance for Changes) for the Serb member of the Bosnian Presidency.

Ivanic is a moderate and getting him in the Presidency would be a huge improvement. He is a prominent economist and was Bosnia’s Foreign Minister from 2003 to 2007, so also well qualified.

So, despite the generally dismal state of Bosnian politics, this time there will actually be candidates to cheer for in all three Presidency elections.

Srpska parliament:

The opposition parties in the Alliance for Changes (SDS led) have shown readiness to unite against the ruling SNSD, though they have struggled to translate strong public dissatisfaction over government performance into robust support for the coalition by not presenting a unified platform. For the first time in the past decade SNSD does not have predominant support among of voters, which could put SNSD-leader Milorad Dodik at risk of losing to Ognjen Tadic (SDS) for Srpska President, with projections varying from week to week. And while campaign refrains have returned again to defending Srpska, opposition parties – particularly SDS, which was recognized by the Sarajevo-based Alumni Center for Interdisciplinary Studies (ACIPS) as offering more concrete measures in its campaign than other parties – have campaigned on economic development.

As unnatural as it feels to root for SDS, I  hope the Alliance for Changes wins. Dodik is terrible and some of the non-SDS types in AfC are rather good by the look of it + SDS unlike Dodik at least has a rational view of the economy. Obviously hoping for a good election for the minority coalition in Dorovina and that the usually very low turnout among non-Serbs will pick up, now that they have a real chance of influencing things. Dorovina holding the balance of power would be really interesting!

[politicus]

Stjepan Mikic, head of Central Electoral Commission says that based on 76.5 per cent of the counted ballots Bakir Izetbegovic from SDA, is leading the race for the  Bosniak seat of the Presidency ahead of Fahrudin Radoncic with a difference of more than 40,000 votes.

Dragan Covic from the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) is leading the race ahead of his opponent Martin Raguz with about 20,000 votes  difference.

For the Serb seat in the presidency, Zeljka Cvijanovic from SNSD has the lead in a tight race with Mladen Ivanic - the difference is only of few thousand votes - but only based on 52 per cent of counted ballots. Thus, the situation could easily change.

How the candidates view it themselves:
"Dragan Covic, president of the Croatian Democratic Union, HDZ BiH, and a candidate of that party for the Croat seat in the country's Presidency has declared victory.

The Party of Democratic Progress, PDP, announced victory of their candidate Mladen Ivanic for the Serb seat in the Presidency."

[Famous Mortimer]

SDA, SDS, and HDZ all won.

Super.

[politicus]

SDA, SDS, and HDZ all won.

Super.

SNSD if you are talking about Presidency, SDS doesn't run in that one.

But Ivanic was leading with 53.5 per cent against Zeljka Cvijanovic with 41.3 per cent in the last poll, so its disappointing if he doesnt make it.

Raguz also had a small lead over Covic in that poll.

Ivanic still has a chance, though.