Randy Bryce (@ironstache) internal shows Paul Ryan in big trouble

[Adam Griffin]

I don't understand why so many people are throwing their money at this race and believing it is winnable...?

What strategist thought running some blue-collar ironworker in a district largely comprised of well-off conservative suburbanite white-collared types was a winning formula?

Ryan is a perfect fit for his district. He always overperforms the top of the ticket, and generally by a good amount. He won by 35 points in 2016. He won by more than 25 points in 2014 against the same guy who came "close" (11 points) to beating him in 2012.

Running Misty Snow in Martha Roby's district would be more competitive, ffs.

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ This is really one of the bigger problems in the post-Sanders era: any candidate who even slightly aligns with Sanders' message or personality basically gets a ton of internet buzz. Outside of some larger-than-usual fundraising for candidates who otherwise wouldn't get a second look because of obvious district composition and candidate quality, it amounts to absolutely nothing tangible in terms of making a district winnable. This is compounded by the fact that it's Ryan's district and so, of course, every cycle we get to hear about how we're going to beat Ryan, McConnell etc.

Ever notice how almost all of these no-name-but-made-great-by-the-grace-of-Sanders candidates find themselves in districts that can't ever be won in the first place? At least it makes for an easy out for explaining the failure of the "netroots" strategy.  

[Adam Griffin]

^^^ This is really one of the bigger problems in the post-Sanders era: any candidate who even slightly aligns with Sanders' message or personality basically gets a ton of internet buzz. Outside of some larger-than-usual fundraising for candidates who otherwise wouldn't get a second look because of obvious district composition and candidate quality, it amounts to absolutely nothing tangible in terms of making a district winnable. This is compounded by the fact that it's Ryan's district and so, of course, every cycle we get to hear about how we're going to beat Ryan, McConnell etc.

Ever notice how almost all of these no-name-but-made-great-by-the-grace-of-Sanders candidates find themselves in districts that can't ever be won in the first place? At least it makes for an easy out for explaining the failure of the "netroots" strategy.  

I agree, what we need here is a much stronger Jon Ossoff type that has no distinguishing features whatsoever.

Or maybe what we need here is to stop deluding ourselves into thinking we can win districts that can't be won and/or stop pouring gobs of grassroots money into races where it won't do any good, just because we saw some clickbait in our news feeds.

Which ends up being the bigger waste: pouring $50 million into a district where winning was actually possible, or pouring $5 million into a district where winning is never, ever going to be a possibility - especially with a candidate that doesn't fit the district at all? Jon Ossoff would be a better candidate in WI-1 than Bryce: why do you think Mr Generic Culinary Arts Major came closer to beating Ryan than anybody in recent memory? His blue-collar flare for dishes?

At least there was major demographic movement and concrete election results to suggest GA-6 was shifting and winnable (both of which were and are true). What's the justification/case for that change in WI-01? Oh, right: #Ironstache...and "muh Paul Ryan".

[Adam Griffin]

To be fair, in Misty Snow's case, it's not like she'd be competitive in any of Utah's Congressional districts, or in any state house/senate race outside of Salt Lake City. So if she wanted to actually win anything, she'd have to go for those.

But otherwise, I agree that Berniecratic candidate seem to find themselves in a lot of super-Republican districts.

My main point there was absurdity combined with a bit of realism. At least Roby's district in 2016 showed it was willing to punish a halfway influential GOP incumbent for standing up to Trump (look at the margins) - something the people of WI-1 are firmly never, ever going to do to Ryan, which is pretty much the only way he could never be in danger of losing. They love him and because of the natural tilt of the district + his leadership role, they're never going to tilt enough out of his column for him to be truly vulnerable.

[Adam Griffin]

Wait, in what world is working in a kitchen not blue collar?

I think it's safe to say the dividing line is somewhere in between working in some fast-food kitchen because you have to, and paying big bucks to a private college for years to study puff pastries, business management or whatever.

Even if we assume his work in the kitchen - however much of it there actually was - makes him a regular joe of sorts, he also owned and sold multiple businesses in the industry and spent the remainder of his career pre-campaign in government and the non-profit sector. I'm sorry, but I doubt he smacks of blue-collar culture with his background (something much more obviously present with a candidate like Bryce) and I clearly remember his campaign trying to frame him as "generic business owner" back in 2012.