Spanish General Election 2011

[Antonio the Sixth]

I can't believe polls are so bleak. OK, economy goes wrong, but a 20-points lead ??

[Tender Branson]

Actually, it seems there are a ton of final polls out:

Metroscopia/El País:

45.4% PP (194 seats)
30.9% PSOE (112 seats)

Sigma-Dos/El Mundo:

47.6% PP (198 seats)
29.8% PSOE (112 seats)

DYM/ABC:

46.5% PP (187-188 seats)
34.2% PSOE (123-126 seats)

Noxa/La Vanguardia:

44.7% PP (184-189 seats)
30.1% PSOE (116-120 seats)

GESOP/El Periódico:

46.2% PP (188-192 seats)
30.2% PSOE (115-118 seats)

Tábula-V/LA GACETA:

45.2% PP (184-187 seats)
31.3% PSOE (121-123 seats)

[Tender Branson]

What's also important:

The IU is gaining ground strongly in the final week. It is now polling between 7% and 10% in these polls. Probably pissed-off PSOE voters, who switch over to the Left.

[Leftbehind]

Yeah, was just gonna say - those polls above average 46% PP to 31% PSOE, so a 13% drop since 2008 for PSOE, but only a 6% rise for PP.

[Niemeyerite]

In deputies..., it's more or less like this:

PP 188-194
PSOE 115-122
IU (with ICV) 7-12
UPyD 2-4
CiU 12-14
ERC 2-3
PNV 4-5
Amaiur 4-6
Geroa Bai 0-1
FAC 1-2
PRC 0-1
Equo/Compromis 1-3 (0-1 Equo 1-2 Compromis)
BNG 2-3
CC 2-3

I expect PSOE to have more than 125 seats, and PP to have less than 185, because you know lots of IU/CiU/PNV votes will finally go for Rubalcaba as people don't want to have a PP absolute majority...
FAC failed to gain traction here in Madrid, it seems that the far-right is going to vote PP no matter what.

[DL]

Doesn't Spain have some form of proportional representation? How is it that the IU can get so few seats even with over 10% of the vote?

[minionofmidas]

Doesn't Spain have some form of proportional representation? How is it that the IU can get so few seats even with over 10% of the vote?

D'hondt by constituency.

[Hash]

Doesn't Spain have some form of proportional representation? How is it that the IU can get so few seats even with over 10% of the vote?

Yes, but PR in provinces, which means that the real threshold in a lot of provinces with few seats is pretty high and in practice favours a polarized two-party system. The only places where the threshold is reasonable enough for third parties like IU to win seats are those with 10-12 or more seats, of which there are pretty few such constituencies.

(All things you guys would know if you read my blog!)

[Niemeyerite]

Doesn't Spain have some form of proportional representation? How is it that the IU can get so few seats even with over 10% of the vote?

Yes, but PR in provinces, which means that the real threshold in a lot of provinces with few seats is pretty high and in practice favours a polarized two-party system. The only places where the threshold is reasonable enough for third parties like IU to win seats are those with 10-12 or more seats, of which there are pretty few such constituencies.

(All things you guys would know if you read my blog!)

Yes, so IU only has possibilities in...

Madrid: they will surely win 2 and 3 or 4 could be possible, too.
Barcelona: ICV may take 2 seats, 3 with a bit of luck.
Zaragoza: IU should not be a factor here, but the coalition IU-CHA may win 1 seat here
Teruel: I've been told that IU has real possibilities here, and they say they're going to fight hard to get their seat. IMHO, it's nearly impossible.
Valencia: 1 seat (almost sure) and with a bit of luck, 2.
Alicante: they are campaigning hard, but they may not win their seat here...
Murcia: they have a good candidate, so it's possible they could get 1 seat. Not likely, but not impossible.
Sevilla: IU's pretty sure they will have a seat here, and they want their 2nd seat (but I think it's impossible, let's see).
Malaga: here, they are fighting to get 1 seat. I think there's a 50% probability they will get it.
Granada: IU says they can win 1 seat here. I doubt it.
Cordoba: same as Granada.
Cadiz: same as Granada and Cordoba
Asturias: they might win 1 seat here, but only because Gaspar Llamazares is their candidate.

So, IU could win 20 seats in a great night for them Cayo Lara, IU's leader, says they're going to get 21 seats.
Polls predict they will get 2 in Madrid and Barcelona, and 1 in Valencia, Sevilla, Zaragoza and Asturias with possibilities in Alicante, Murcia and Malaga (1) and one more in Valencia, Madrid and Barcelona.

I predict IU will get 6 seats (2 in Madrid, 1 in Barcelona, 1 in Valencia, 1 in Zaragoza and 1 in Sevilla) because 1/3 of IU voters will finally vote PSOE.

Let's see what happens.

[redcommander]

New poll by the University of Murcia:

47.7% PP
28.7% PSOE
  7.6% IU
  4.2% UPyD
  3.4% CIU

http://www.um.es/cpaum/pdf/Preelectoral_11112011.pdf

PSOE could actually get below 30%? I know they've screwed up horribly, but it's hard to imagine they've fallen so low from their Felipe Gonzalez days.

[Niemeyerite]

New poll by the University of Murcia:

47.7% PP
28.7% PSOE
  7.6% IU
  4.2% UPyD
  3.4% CIU

http://www.um.es/cpaum/pdf/Preelectoral_11112011.pdf

PSOE could actually get below 30%? I know they've screwed up horribly, but it's hard to imagine they've fallen so low from their Felipe Gonzalez days.

I doubt it. PSOE is polling above 30% right now, and "technocrats" here say PSOE is trailing by 9 points (so, experts say polls are biased because people is really angry and say they're not going to vote PSOE... and finally they WILL vote PSOE).

Felipe Gonzalez has said today he was trailing by 9 points in 1996, too, and lost by only 1 point. So, for him it's not impossible to win this. I'm not that optimistic, but I hope we get better results than expected.

[minionofmidas]

New poll by the University of Murcia:

47.7% PP
28.7% PSOE
  7.6% IU
  4.2% UPyD
  3.4% CIU

http://www.um.es/cpaum/pdf/Preelectoral_11112011.pdf

PSOE could actually get below 30%? I know they've screwed up horribly, but it's hard to imagine they've fallen so low from their Felipe Gonzalez days.

I doubt it. PSOE is polling above 30% right now, and "technocrats" here say PSOE is trailing by 9 points (so, experts say polls are biased because people is really angry and say they're not going to vote PSOE... and finally they WILL vote PSOE).

Felipe Gonzalez has said today he was trailing by 9 points in 1996, too, and lost by only 1 point. So, for him it's not impossible to win this. I'm not that optimistic, but I hope we get better results than expected.

Exactly - Gonzalez seemed to trail by 9, but lost only by 1. Rubalcaba seems to trail by 19, and will lose by only 9.
If those experts are right, and a lot of middling-soft PSOE support comes back.

[Niemeyerite]

New poll by the University of Murcia:

47.7% PP
28.7% PSOE
  7.6% IU
  4.2% UPyD
  3.4% CIU

http://www.um.es/cpaum/pdf/Preelectoral_11112011.pdf

PSOE could actually get below 30%? I know they've screwed up horribly, but it's hard to imagine they've fallen so low from their Felipe Gonzalez days.

I doubt it. PSOE is polling above 30% right now, and "technocrats" here say PSOE is trailing by 9 points (so, experts say polls are biased because people is really angry and say they're not going to vote PSOE... and finally they WILL vote PSOE).

Felipe Gonzalez has said today he was trailing by 9 points in 1996, too, and lost by only 1 point. So, for him it's not impossible to win this. I'm not that optimistic, but I hope we get better results than expected.

Exactly - Gonzalez seemed to trail by 9, but lost only by 1. Rubalcaba seems to trail by 19, and will lose by only 9.
If those experts are right, and a lot of middling-soft PSOE support comes back.

trails by 19 in ELMUNDO polls... which are really biased.
I'd say he trails by 13, and people don't really think he's trailing by more than 10. This is Spain, we have bad pollsters, and 90% of them work for a political party, or support one candidate.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Ah, the ole "Shy Conservative Factor"

[Iannis]

New poll by the University of Murcia:

47.7% PP
28.7% PSOE
  7.6% IU
  4.2% UPyD
  3.4% CIU

http://www.um.es/cpaum/pdf/Preelectoral_11112011.pdf

PSOE could actually get below 30%? I know they've screwed up horribly, but it's hard to imagine they've fallen so low from their Felipe Gonzalez days.

I doubt it. PSOE is polling above 30% right now, and "technocrats" here say PSOE is trailing by 9 points (so, experts say polls are biased because people is really angry and say they're not going to vote PSOE... and finally they WILL vote PSOE).

Felipe Gonzalez has said today he was trailing by 9 points in 1996, too, and lost by only 1 point. So, for him it's not impossible to win this. I'm not that optimistic, but I hope we get better results than expected.

Exactly - Gonzalez seemed to trail by 9, but lost only by 1. Rubalcaba seems to trail by 19, and will lose by only 9.
If those experts are right, and a lot of middling-soft PSOE support comes back.

trails by 19 in ELMUNDO polls... which are really biased.
I'd say he trails by 13, and people don't really think he's trailing by more than 10. This is Spain, we have bad pollsters, and 90% of them work for a political party, or support one candidate.

This is quite similar in Italy (center-right did far better than polls in last 2 general elections) and moreover people don't trust pollsters, don't answer, especially if their are supporters of a resigning government

[Tetro Kornbluth]

It hardly seems like there is a campaign on at all...

[minionofmidas]

Gonzalez too was seen as probably trailing by less than polls claimed (though more than the single point he eventually lost by).

[Niemeyerite]

Tomorrow I'll make an analysis about each party possibilities in each Province.

[Niemeyerite]

Let's start today:

A CORUÑA

PP won 4 seats here with 43% of the vote. PSOE got 3 with 40%, while BNG won the last one with only 12%. IU had a ridiculous result here in 2008, they didn't even manage to get 2% of the vote.

A Coruña is a really conservative province... and the best one for PP in Galicia in this year's municipal elections. IU had a good result in the capital, too. PSOE lost the mayorship, and had a very bad result in Santiago and Ferrol, too. In small villages, results weren't THAT bad for them.

So, this time we have a very strong PP, a stronger IU, and a weaker PSOE. BNG may loose some votes, too. But they'll keep their seat, for sure. In 2008, PSOE had a very good result, but that didn't translate in seats... so, they can have a worse result than 2008 and still keep their 3 seats.

Polls predict 5 PP, 2 PSOE, 1 BNG.

PSOE has a damn good candidate here, Francisco Caamaño, minister of Justice. Not charismatic, but a common "gallego", a hard-working campaigner and a really clever man. So we could have a surprise here, with PSOE keeping its 3 seats.

My prediction (being optimistic with my party):

PP 4 seats
PSOE 3 seats
BNG 1 seat

[Hash]

A Coruña is actually historically the most left-wing province in Galicia and the only one which has voted PSOE in the past. But yes, the PP did exceptionally well in A Coruña this year with the big gains in Ferrol and Santiago which were pretty historic. In contrast, the PP's performance wasn't as shockingly impressive in Pontevedra, Lugo or Ourense.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mistakes likely.

[minionofmidas]

'89 and '96 are "prettiest".

[Niemeyerite]

I'm campaigning hard these days... tomorrow I'll have sometime to post my analysis.. But I'm not sure, I'm promoting a Cinema session in my high school and I want a looooooooooooot of people to come, I've been in contact with different associations, political parties, organizations... and tomorrow is the day of pupils hahaha... We (my economics teacher and me) want this to be a success

[Јas]

Excellent work on the maps again Al

[Harry Hayfield]

Could I ask what the polling hours are (local time) and whether I may be permitted to report the results sourcing EuroNews?