MS-01 Special Election Thread

[smoltchanov]

I understand that ALL republican candidates are, generally, "solid conservatives" (especially - because it's a Misssissippi), and lone Democrat  (who happens to be Black) - most likely left-of-center at least. But some differences (say, "establishment more pragmatic conservative" vs "radical tea-party conservative") probably exist. Can you explain in more details?

[smoltchanov]

Thanks a lot for very interesting details! IMHO, in districts like this Democrats must hope (and may be - work for) for victory of as "sane" Republican as posssible (and vice versa - for Republicans in strongly Democratic districts), not for miraculous victory of their candidate, who doesn't fit district well.

[smoltchanov]

Thanks a lot for very interesting details! IMHO, in districts like this Democrats must hope (and may be - work for) for victory of as "sane" Republican as posssible (and vice versa - for Republicans in strongly Democratic districts), not for miraculous victory of their candidate, who doesn't fit district well.

There is evidence that radicals on the othe side help with independents elsewhere. It is not at all clear that Dems are better off with moderate Republicans.

Democrats will not win district like this. Especially - with candidate they have now (Childers won it, but - against flawed opponent, in wave year, and he was at least somewhat conservative and white). So they may either help elect "sane" (though conservative) Republican, or deal with rabid right-wing tea-partier as their congressman. I prefer first choice.

[smoltchanov]

If I had to guess - Jones probably wins in the end. Notable, if controversial ads work better than being an insider or having the support of the governor.

For some reason I decided to watch the ads for all of these candidates - boy was it "constitutional conservative" this and "biblical values" that. I have to say - Sam Adcock had the best ones (that smile on "you know how i feel about gun control" part of the ad was charming in the right way for that district). I'm wondering why you had very little to say about him.

Well, if Jones is a real threat - i would (if i was a Missisippi Democratic party leader) abandon all attempts to elect unwinnable Democratic candidate, and support Tagert or Kelly. Simply to have more or less reasonable alternative in run-off.... Of course - indirectly...

[smoltchanov]

If I had to guess - Jones probably wins in the end. Notable, if controversial ads work better than being an insider or having the support of the governor.

For some reason I decided to watch the ads for all of these candidates - boy was it "constitutional conservative" this and "biblical values" that. I have to say - Sam Adcock had the best ones (that smile on "you know how i feel about gun control" part of the ad was charming in the right way for that district). I'm wondering why you had very little to say about him.

Well, if Jones is a real threat - i would (if i was a Missisippi Democratic party leader) abandon all attempts to elect unwinnable Democratic candidate, and support Tagert or Kelly. Simply to have more or less reasonable alternative in run-off.... Of course - indirectly...

Of this group I actually think Adcock would technically be the "moderate". He called himself a "practical conservative" which means he doesn't want to associate himself with the Tea Party or be a "Constitutional Conservative". For this district, calling yourself "practical" is about 2 steps away from calling yourself a socialist.

Fully agree. Though Kelley is, most lilely, must be at least somewhat pragmatic too (as former Democrat). Even most conservative Democrats (and even in states like Mississippi) are usually a bit more pragmatic then their Republican counterparts...

[smoltchanov]

If I had to guess - Jones probably wins in the end. Notable, if controversial ads work better than being an insider or having the support of the governor.

For some reason I decided to watch the ads for all of these candidates - boy was it "constitutional conservative" this and "biblical values" that. I have to say - Sam Adcock had the best ones (that smile on "you know how i feel about gun control" part of the ad was charming in the right way for that district). I'm wondering why you had very little to say about him.

Well, if Jones is a real threat - i would (if i was a Missisippi Democratic party leader) abandon all attempts to elect unwinnable Democratic candidate, and support Tagert or Kelly. Simply to have more or less reasonable alternative in run-off.... Of course - indirectly...

Of this group I actually think Adcock would technically be the "moderate". He called himself a "practical conservative" which means he doesn't want to associate himself with the Tea Party or be a "Constitutional Conservative". For this district, calling yourself "practical" is about 2 steps away from calling yourself a socialist.

Fully agree. Though Kelley is, most lilely, must be at least somewhat pragmatic too (as former Democrat). Even most conservative Democrats (and even in states like Mississippi) are usually a bit more pragmatic then their Republican counterparts...

IIRC, state legislators have a tendency to shift either hard left or hard right when they switch parties, often as an attempt to convince their new party that they are genuine. Some of the most conservative Republican legislators in the South were Democrats as recently as the Bush years.

Disagree. Look, for example, at Louisiana state Senate. A lot of party switchers there (Alario, Amedee, Adlee, Chabert, and so on). None of them is among the most conservative Republican members according to Boris Shor's research. Conservative - sure, but mostly pragmatic. They simply foresaw that Republicans will be in majority in their state in the near future and accelerated the process by swithing himself, and thus - preserving their political influence. Frequently it's all that simple...

[smoltchanov]

^ Guillory is, at least in terms of style and rhetoric.

Yes. But he has a Democratic district and simply couldn't get elected to state Senate from it with a program he espouses now. Now, when he decided to forego a reelection attempt, and decided to run statewide - he is "free to express himself"...Statewide in Louisiana it's frequently "the more conservative - the better". At least - now.

[smoltchanov]

Those ads were a good reminder just how right-wing Northern Mississippi is.  The only outlier was Nancy Collins, whose ads consisted of talking about "protecting Social Security and Medicare".......she almost sounded like a conservative Democrat.

Southern Mississippi (Pallazzo's district) is even more conservative. Chris McDaniel and some other notable right-wingers hail from there.. Northern still elects considerable number of "good old boy" conservative Democrats on state and local level at least...

[smoltchanov]

Those ads were a good reminder just how right-wing Northern Mississippi is.  The only outlier was Nancy Collins, whose ads consisted of talking about "protecting Social Security and Medicare".......she almost sounded like a conservative Democrat.

Southern Mississippi (Pallazzo's district) is even more conservative. Chris McDaniel and some other notable right-wingers hail from there.. Northern still elects considerable number of "good old boy" conservative Democrats on state and local level at least...

It's a different kind of conservatism though. North Mississippi is more of a strong social conservatism while South Mississippi conservatives are generally more concerned about the fiscal side of politics (this is especially true in the more 'urban' areas like Gulfport/Biloxi and Hattiesburg). South Mississippians are generally social conservatives as well, but most vote GOP because of their stances on fiscal issues.

Yes. IMHO, that's distinction is exemplified by such well-known figures of the past from NE Mississippi as  Theodore Bilbo (racist, anti-Semite, but New Dealer) and, to some extent, John Rankin (racist, anti-Semite, but, at least initially, somewhat New Dealer too). Of course - South Mississippi politicians of the past tended to be racist too (Colmer, for example), but seldom - of the same intensity...

[smoltchanov]

Trent Lott endorsed Sam Adcock yesterday, per his website.

An act of courtesy?

P.S. And as an afterthought: half century ago in this district it would be almost exactly opposite: about dozen Democratic candidates (probably, all - white, and, at least, right-of-center) and,  may be, a single Republican with no chances to get elected....

[smoltchanov]

Congrats Congressman Kelly!

Yeah, as an old sayng goes -  he can "measure drapes" for his office in Washington, DC, now. Any info about him besides being former Democrat (as, probably, half of the candidates were) and local official?

[smoltchanov]

The sad thing is, with only 17%, Zinn did better than anyone thought he would.

Yeah. Kudos to him on getting 1st place in the jungle. I just can't see him surviving the runoff though, the district is just too conservative. A Gene-Taylor type conservadem might have had a shot, but Zinn is definitely not a conservadem.

Even Gene Taylor wouldn't, most likely, win this race : more polarization, then few years ago, and abysmal turnout among Democratic-leaning constituency in specials of late.  A very flawed Republican candidate would be needed too (someone publicly posing with KKK hood on his head for example))))). In fact - Kelly, as a long-time law enforcement official, and without such baggage, is a good candidate for this district

[smoltchanov]

Congrats Congressman Kelly!

Yeah, as an old sayng goes -  he can "measure drapes" for his office in Washington, DC, now. Any info about him besides being former Democrat (as, probably, half of the candidates were) and local official?

I don't know much else about him, but he did make a comment in of the debates about wanting to restore voting rights for ex-felons.

Not bad. Thanks!

[smoltchanov]

It also went 61/37 for Cochran. Given that MS already had one of the lowest turnout rates last year (<30%), thats probably what I'd expect for this election, likely even on the higher end for Zinn.

The district cast about 150K votes in the Senate race. For comparison, when Childers first won the seat in the competitive '08 special, about 107K votes were cast.

I will be even more pessimistic: about 2:1 (66-67% - 33-34%) Kelly. Childers was a type of candidate who occasionaly (bad opponent, wave year)  can still win this district (though, obviously, not against Cochran), Zinn - isn't

[smoltchanov]

Liberal Black in quintessentially Blue Dog conservative (but populist) and mostly white Southern Democratic district? No snowball cchance in hell, a case of bad candidate. Democrats had little chances in this district with ANY candidate, especially this being special and Kelly seeming to have little baggage, but absolutely no - with Zinn.

[smoltchanov]

A new poll has come in for this race.

Kelly 54%
Zinn 37%

http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/current-mississippi-polling/

If so - really good for Zinn. About 60-40 when undecideds will decide))))

[smoltchanov]

I will be happy to err in my early pessimistic (for Zinn) prediction. If so- it will mean one of two things: either strong Black and depressed white turnout (rare thing in specials) or a LOT of white vote for liberal black Zinn (also rarity in Mississippi). We shall see...

[smoltchanov]

National Democrats are ignoring Zinn, and Zinn says the only reason MS is a non-atlas red state is because national democrats refuse to make any effort in the state:
http://yallpolitics.com/index.php/yp/post/41233/

He has a point - with enough investment in a competent machine in the state, they could at least compete somewhat in MS.

Why bother...the state would rather vote for a mouse with an R next to its name than a Democrat

Not always. It voted for Childers twice in 2008. But you need a right Democrat ("Misssissippi Democrat", not national one) and problematic Republican for that to happen (big Democratic wave may help too..)

[smoltchanov]

I said the Southern whites will rather vote for a mouse than a Democrat...and I was right! MS isn't going blue for the next 40 yrs...minimum

No on expected southern whites to vote for liberal black Democrat. Democratic party destroyed itself in these areas since at least 1948, but especially - since 1972. That finally happened after 2008......

P.S. I was slightly too optimistic in my prediction (2:1 for Kelly), but, generally, it wasn't too bad...

[smoltchanov]

lol people getting misled by a Gravis Poll.

Death to Gravis!

Since 2014 at least i am an adherent of old saying (in somewhat corrected form): "the ONLY good poll is made on election day"...)))) But, IMHO, it was unreasonable to expect Zinn to overperform Childers in MS-01. And Childers got 41% here in 2010 and 37-38% (with no campaigning, but still - .... ) in 2014...

[smoltchanov]

About what I figured. We can be competitive in Mississippi under circumstances, and this race didn't come close to resembling those circumstances.

Zinn seems like a cool guy, but I don't see him ever winning any real office, unless he can somehow slide into the state legislature one day (and who would want to do that anyway?)

In Black-majority state legislative district - why not?

[smoltchanov]

Yeah, that one could get really ugly...

Whoever Bennie endorses will probably win. Thompson is closer to my ideology than the 3 other MS reps, but he offsets that by being a total idiot. Hopefully someone better will replace him.

+100. I couldn't say better....

[smoltchanov]

Speaking of Second District Republicans....I think Buck Clarke could pull off an upset here in a wave-type year, no?

I know that he wins "normally Democratic" district, and he is a pragmatic Cochran-style politician, but still - somewhat too conservative. He will need really BIG wave...