What posters' precincts will be the 5 most lopsided in each direction this year?
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  What posters' precincts will be the 5 most lopsided in each direction this year?
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #75 on: August 22, 2020, 04:01:48 PM »

My precinct and especially some surrounding mine have surprisingly low margins for Clinton as far as Hollywood is concerned. Some of them are sub-70 and I think a couple are even sub-60 Clinton. This is mostly due to a heavy Armenian American presence in East Hollywood.
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« Reply #76 on: August 22, 2020, 05:14:07 PM »

My precinct in Chicago in 2016 had much lower Clinton support than I expected, given the area's left-wing politics. I assume the relatively high third-party vote share (my ward had the highest percentage of Stein voters in the city) had something to do with that.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #77 on: August 22, 2020, 05:23:05 PM »

For what is worth, I don't think Europe has precincts that are as lopsided as those in the US for hte most part.

BRTD's precinct in Minneapolis if I am not mistaken is somewhere on the order of 85-15.

The only precincts I can find in Spain that have only 15% of the vote for the left or right are:

a) Deep rural Catalonia/Basque Country; and even that only works  if you exclude PNV/JxCat from the calculations. (the "Unionist right" gets around 10% in these areas, but of course PNV/JxCat gets a ton of votes)

b) The uber wealthy neighbourhood of Salamanca in Madrid*

c) Some precincts in the equally uber wealthy suburbs of Western Madrid, in particular those that correspond to gated communities

Even the areas that would be stereotyped as most lopsided like deep rural Castille or the dirt poorest neighbourhoods of Spain's major cities still have a good solid 25% base for the opposition.

Maybe there are more, but I am not sure where to find them (well, there are plenty of small towns with 100 people that are equally lopsided, but I mean in terms of bigger areas that are all 85-15)

Even the town of Marinaleda, which is a literal communist commune, still sees 16.5% of the vote for the right! (which I suppose is close enough)

And BRTD's precinct is nowhere near close to being the most lopsided in the US, iirc there are some which are on the scale of 98-2 or 99-1 Democratic?

I'll take that and raise you Unteriberg in canton Schwyz - 69% for the SVP alone, and just 3% for the left combined. This is a village where 91% voted to ban minarets, and 86% voted against giving women the vote, to give you a feel of what the place is like. It's 2'500 people, so not a complete joke.

In most of rural Innerschwyz or the Berner oberland you've got the SVP, or the fundamentalist Christian EDU getting 60%+ and the left in single digits.

Last year there were also some inner-city districts, and some industrial towns and villages in French Switzerland that were over 70% for the left, which was basically unheard of historically.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #78 on: August 22, 2020, 08:22:15 PM »
« Edited: August 22, 2020, 09:09:35 PM by Blairite »

My precinct was Clinton+76 (Clinton 84, Trump 8 ), which is pretty good for Los Angeles but doesn't hold a candle to some of the overwhelmingly black precincts a few miles away.
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« Reply #79 on: August 23, 2020, 01:53:49 AM »

My precinct was Clinton+76 (Clinton 84, Trump 8 ), which is pretty good for Los Angeles but doesn't hold a candle to some of the overwhelmingly black precincts a few miles away.

How did Compton vote in 2016?

I know that that city is basically 0% non-Hispanic White.
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #80 on: August 23, 2020, 01:58:20 AM »

My precinct was Clinton+76 (Clinton 84, Trump 8 ), which is pretty good for Los Angeles but doesn't hold a candle to some of the overwhelmingly black precincts a few miles away.

How did Compton vote in 2016?

I know that that city is basically 0% non-Hispanic White.

Compton voted for *checks notes* Hillary Clinton.
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« Reply #81 on: August 23, 2020, 02:00:18 AM »

My precinct was Clinton+76 (Clinton 84, Trump 8 ), which is pretty good for Los Angeles but doesn't hold a candle to some of the overwhelmingly black precincts a few miles away.

How did Compton vote in 2016?

I know that that city is basically 0% non-Hispanic White.

Compton voted for *checks notes* Hillary Clinton.

I WAS ASKING HOW LOPSIDED IT WAS
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
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« Reply #82 on: August 23, 2020, 02:00:30 AM »

My precinct was Clinton+76 (Clinton 84, Trump 8 ), which is pretty good for Los Angeles but doesn't hold a candle to some of the overwhelmingly black precincts a few miles away.

How did Compton vote in 2016?

I know that that city is basically 0% non-Hispanic White.

Something like Clinton 91-Trump 4. Compton is more heavily Latino than AA areas like Leimert Park, Hyde Park, and Baldwin Hills which are Clinton 95-Trump 3 or so. Regardless, the vast majority of urban Los Angeles is over 80% Clinton.
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #83 on: August 23, 2020, 02:08:13 AM »

My precinct was Clinton+76 (Clinton 84, Trump 8 ), which is pretty good for Los Angeles but doesn't hold a candle to some of the overwhelmingly black precincts a few miles away.

How did Compton vote in 2016?

I know that that city is basically 0% non-Hispanic White.

Compton voted for *checks notes* Hillary Clinton.

I WAS ASKING HOW LOPSIDED IT WAS

91.8 Clinton
4.3 Trump
3.8 Other

1.2% Non-Hispanic white total pop, 1.8% by CVAP
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« Reply #84 on: August 23, 2020, 02:11:20 AM »


Something like Clinton 91-Trump 4. Compton is more heavily Latino than AA areas like Leimert Park, Hyde Park, and Baldwin Hills which are Clinton 95-Trump 3 or so. Regardless, the vast majority of urban Los Angeles is over 80% Clinton.



91.8 Clinton
4.3 Trump
3.8 Other

1.2% Non-Hispanic white total pop, 1.8% by CVAP


Double thanks.
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #85 on: August 23, 2020, 02:12:41 AM »

My precinct was Clinton+76 (Clinton 84, Trump 8 ), which is pretty good for Los Angeles but doesn't hold a candle to some of the overwhelmingly black precincts a few miles away.

How did Compton vote in 2016?

I know that that city is basically 0% non-Hispanic White.

Something like Clinton 91-Trump 4. Compton is more heavily Latino than AA areas like Leimert Park, Hyde Park, and Baldwin Hills which are Clinton 95-Trump 3 or so. Regardless, the vast majority of urban Los Angeles is over 80% Clinton.
How weird is it that my neighborhood has a bunch of sub-70 Clinton precincts? I found one near me that is only 54% Clinton.
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« Reply #86 on: August 23, 2020, 02:15:10 AM »

My precinct was Clinton+76 (Clinton 84, Trump 8 ), which is pretty good for Los Angeles but doesn't hold a candle to some of the overwhelmingly black precincts a few miles away.

How did Compton vote in 2016?

I know that that city is basically 0% non-Hispanic White.

Something like Clinton 91-Trump 4. Compton is more heavily Latino than AA areas like Leimert Park, Hyde Park, and Baldwin Hills which are Clinton 95-Trump 3 or so. Regardless, the vast majority of urban Los Angeles is over 80% Clinton.
How weird is it that my neighborhood has a bunch of sub-70 Clinton precincts? I found one near me that is only 54% Clinton.

You mentioned something about Armenian Americans. Why are they so Republican?
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #87 on: August 23, 2020, 02:16:20 AM »

My precinct was Clinton+76 (Clinton 84, Trump 8 ), which is pretty good for Los Angeles but doesn't hold a candle to some of the overwhelmingly black precincts a few miles away.

How did Compton vote in 2016?

I know that that city is basically 0% non-Hispanic White.

Something like Clinton 91-Trump 4. Compton is more heavily Latino than AA areas like Leimert Park, Hyde Park, and Baldwin Hills which are Clinton 95-Trump 3 or so. Regardless, the vast majority of urban Los Angeles is over 80% Clinton.
How weird is it that my neighborhood has a bunch of sub-70 Clinton precincts? I found one near me that is only 54% Clinton.

That's so weird. Does Trump have some weird ethnic appeal with Armenians or Thai people or something? Makes no sense at all, especially since Silver Lake and Koreatown and Hollywood are all 85-90 percent Clinton.
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #88 on: August 23, 2020, 02:16:26 AM »

My precinct was Clinton+76 (Clinton 84, Trump 8 ), which is pretty good for Los Angeles but doesn't hold a candle to some of the overwhelmingly black precincts a few miles away.

How did Compton vote in 2016?

I know that that city is basically 0% non-Hispanic White.

Something like Clinton 91-Trump 4. Compton is more heavily Latino than AA areas like Leimert Park, Hyde Park, and Baldwin Hills which are Clinton 95-Trump 3 or so. Regardless, the vast majority of urban Los Angeles is over 80% Clinton.
How weird is it that my neighborhood has a bunch of sub-70 Clinton precincts? I found one near me that is only 54% Clinton.

You mentioned something about Armenian Americans. Why are they so Republican?

Anti-communism. Many fled the Soviet Union. They're good people but not very educated.
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #89 on: August 23, 2020, 02:17:58 AM »

My precinct was Clinton+76 (Clinton 84, Trump 8 ), which is pretty good for Los Angeles but doesn't hold a candle to some of the overwhelmingly black precincts a few miles away.

How did Compton vote in 2016?

I know that that city is basically 0% non-Hispanic White.

Something like Clinton 91-Trump 4. Compton is more heavily Latino than AA areas like Leimert Park, Hyde Park, and Baldwin Hills which are Clinton 95-Trump 3 or so. Regardless, the vast majority of urban Los Angeles is over 80% Clinton.
How weird is it that my neighborhood has a bunch of sub-70 Clinton precincts? I found one near me that is only 54% Clinton.

That's so weird. Does Trump have some weird ethnic appeal with Armenians or Thai people or something? Makes no sense at all, especially since Silver Lake and Koreatown and Hollywood are all 85-90 percent Clinton.

Dude I've never met a Trump supporter in LA. But clearly, they're here. I can see Thai people being a little conservative as well I guess but not like hey let's vote for Trump. It's super weird.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #90 on: August 23, 2020, 02:21:57 AM »

My precinct was Clinton+76 (Clinton 84, Trump 8 ), which is pretty good for Los Angeles but doesn't hold a candle to some of the overwhelmingly black precincts a few miles away.

How did Compton vote in 2016?

I know that that city is basically 0% non-Hispanic White.

Something like Clinton 91-Trump 4. Compton is more heavily Latino than AA areas like Leimert Park, Hyde Park, and Baldwin Hills which are Clinton 95-Trump 3 or so. Regardless, the vast majority of urban Los Angeles is over 80% Clinton.
How weird is it that my neighborhood has a bunch of sub-70 Clinton precincts? I found one near me that is only 54% Clinton.

That's so weird. Does Trump have some weird ethnic appeal with Armenians or Thai people or something? Makes no sense at all, especially since Silver Lake and Koreatown and Hollywood are all 85-90 percent Clinton.

Dude I've never met a Trump supporter in LA. But clearly, they're here. I can see Thai people being a little conservative as well I guess but not like hey let's vote for Trump. It's super weird.

No kidding. Trump even won the precinct over by Vermont and Hollywood. I definitely don't get it. Like East Hollywood is voting to the right of Irvine lol.
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #91 on: August 23, 2020, 02:25:02 AM »

My precinct was Clinton+76 (Clinton 84, Trump 8 ), which is pretty good for Los Angeles but doesn't hold a candle to some of the overwhelmingly black precincts a few miles away.

How did Compton vote in 2016?

I know that that city is basically 0% non-Hispanic White.

Something like Clinton 91-Trump 4. Compton is more heavily Latino than AA areas like Leimert Park, Hyde Park, and Baldwin Hills which are Clinton 95-Trump 3 or so. Regardless, the vast majority of urban Los Angeles is over 80% Clinton.
How weird is it that my neighborhood has a bunch of sub-70 Clinton precincts? I found one near me that is only 54% Clinton.

That's so weird. Does Trump have some weird ethnic appeal with Armenians or Thai people or something? Makes no sense at all, especially since Silver Lake and Koreatown and Hollywood are all 85-90 percent Clinton.

Dude I've never met a Trump supporter in LA. But clearly, they're here. I can see Thai people being a little conservative as well I guess but not like hey let's vote for Trump. It's super weird.

No kidding. Trump even won the precinct over by Vermont and Hollywood. I definitely don't get it. Like East Hollywood is voting to the right of Irvine lol.

Wait, no. There's no actual Trump precincts in East Hollywood. The closest is a 54-37 Clinton precinct. But even then, Glendale has a large Armenian American population as well as the SFV. My neighborhood is super diverse and a Trump supporter would stand out like a sore thumb.

Honestly, I think Scientologists could be to blame.
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #92 on: August 23, 2020, 02:30:35 AM »

I guess when you compare East Hollywood to Glendale it sort of lines up. I tend to not view Glendale as the suburb it's known for being, the place is going to explode over the next ten or so years and it's going to be marvelous.

Also JFC there's only 4 Trump precincts in Irvine and most of them are sub-50. Republicans should get out while they still can.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #93 on: August 23, 2020, 02:42:43 AM »

My precinct was Clinton+76 (Clinton 84, Trump 8 ), which is pretty good for Los Angeles but doesn't hold a candle to some of the overwhelmingly black precincts a few miles away.

How did Compton vote in 2016?

I know that that city is basically 0% non-Hispanic White.

Something like Clinton 91-Trump 4. Compton is more heavily Latino than AA areas like Leimert Park, Hyde Park, and Baldwin Hills which are Clinton 95-Trump 3 or so. Regardless, the vast majority of urban Los Angeles is over 80% Clinton.
How weird is it that my neighborhood has a bunch of sub-70 Clinton precincts? I found one near me that is only 54% Clinton.

That's so weird. Does Trump have some weird ethnic appeal with Armenians or Thai people or something? Makes no sense at all, especially since Silver Lake and Koreatown and Hollywood are all 85-90 percent Clinton.

Dude I've never met a Trump supporter in LA. But clearly, they're here. I can see Thai people being a little conservative as well I guess but not like hey let's vote for Trump. It's super weird.

No kidding. Trump even won the precinct over by Vermont and Hollywood. I definitely don't get it. Like East Hollywood is voting to the right of Irvine lol.

Wait, no. There's no actual Trump precincts in East Hollywood. The closest is a 54-37 Clinton precinct. But even then, Glendale has a large Armenian American population as well as the SFV. My neighborhood is super diverse and a Trump supporter would stand out like a sore thumb.

Honestly, I think Scientologists could be to blame.

According to this there is: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/election-2016-voting-precinct-maps.html#9.88/32.898/-96.902
But you could be right. That area is sort of ground zero for them. And yeah, Glendale is quite liberal (and pretty cool) and absolutely nowhere in the area seems like it would be Trumpy. Or maybe it's just boomer homeowners who are a touch less resistancy than you'd think? Hancock Park has some lowish Clinton numbers too, after all.
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #94 on: August 23, 2020, 02:53:48 AM »

My precinct was Clinton+76 (Clinton 84, Trump 8 ), which is pretty good for Los Angeles but doesn't hold a candle to some of the overwhelmingly black precincts a few miles away.

How did Compton vote in 2016?

I know that that city is basically 0% non-Hispanic White.

Something like Clinton 91-Trump 4. Compton is more heavily Latino than AA areas like Leimert Park, Hyde Park, and Baldwin Hills which are Clinton 95-Trump 3 or so. Regardless, the vast majority of urban Los Angeles is over 80% Clinton.
How weird is it that my neighborhood has a bunch of sub-70 Clinton precincts? I found one near me that is only 54% Clinton.

That's so weird. Does Trump have some weird ethnic appeal with Armenians or Thai people or something? Makes no sense at all, especially since Silver Lake and Koreatown and Hollywood are all 85-90 percent Clinton.

Dude I've never met a Trump supporter in LA. But clearly, they're here. I can see Thai people being a little conservative as well I guess but not like hey let's vote for Trump. It's super weird.

No kidding. Trump even won the precinct over by Vermont and Hollywood. I definitely don't get it. Like East Hollywood is voting to the right of Irvine lol.

Wait, no. There's no actual Trump precincts in East Hollywood. The closest is a 54-37 Clinton precinct. But even then, Glendale has a large Armenian American population as well as the SFV. My neighborhood is super diverse and a Trump supporter would stand out like a sore thumb.

Honestly, I think Scientologists could be to blame.

According to this there is: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/election-2016-voting-precinct-maps.html#9.88/32.898/-96.902
But you could be right. That area is sort of ground zero for them. And yeah, Glendale is quite liberal (and pretty cool) and absolutely nowhere in the area seems like it would be Trumpy. Or maybe it's just boomer homeowners who are a touch less resistancy than you'd think? Hancock Park has some lowish Clinton numbers too, after all.

Hancock Park is what Beverly Hills wishes it was lol. I was going off of the data on DRA, so who knows which is most accurate. Still, for 25% of me neighborhood to support Trump...I don't see it. It's pretty weird, especially since everything else is normal 85-10 Los Angeles.
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #95 on: August 23, 2020, 03:01:51 AM »
« Edited: August 23, 2020, 03:05:03 AM by Sev »

As it is, I'm about done with LA. Approaching 30, I'm going to move back to DC, and when I return to LA at 40, it will probably be Glendale or Pasadena, not the city itself. These six figures need to gentrify properly.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #96 on: August 23, 2020, 03:40:44 AM »

As it is, I'm about done with LA. Approaching 30, I'm going to move back to DC, and when I return to LA at 40, it will probably be Glendale or Pasadena, not the city itself. These six figures need to gentrify properly.

Nice. Basically the two places I've spent my adult life. Not going for the Westside dream once you make it big?
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #97 on: August 23, 2020, 03:42:30 AM »

As it is, I'm about done with LA. Approaching 30, I'm going to move back to DC, and when I return to LA at 40, it will probably be Glendale or Pasadena, not the city itself. These six figures need to gentrify properly.

Nice. Basically the two places I've spent my adult life. Not going for the Westside dream once you make it big?

I'm a little bit too Mexican for that.  Also, I could give a f**k about a car.

Gonna work this real estate for every ounce I can get and try to make it big haha. I really want to buy into Glendale right now. The boom is coming whether we like it or not.
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #98 on: August 23, 2020, 03:47:29 AM »

As it is, I'm about done with LA. Approaching 30, I'm going to move back to DC, and when I return to LA at 40, it will probably be Glendale or Pasadena, not the city itself. These six figures need to gentrify properly.

Nice. Basically the two places I've spent my adult life. Not going for the Westside dream once you make it big?

I'm a little bit too Mexican for that.  Also, I could give a f**k about a car.

Gonna work this real estate for every ounce I can get and try to make it big haha. I really want to buy into Glendale right now. The boom is coming whether we like it or not.

Respect (although Westside>Glendale w/o car IMO). Anyway, enjoy that real estate appreciation and your time in the district of 95-5 precincts and garbage Mexican food.
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #99 on: August 23, 2020, 03:51:03 AM »

As it is, I'm about done with LA. Approaching 30, I'm going to move back to DC, and when I return to LA at 40, it will probably be Glendale or Pasadena, not the city itself. These six figures need to gentrify properly.

Nice. Basically the two places I've spent my adult life. Not going for the Westside dream once you make it big?

I'm a little bit too Mexican for that.  Also, I could give a f**k about a car.

Gonna work this real estate for every ounce I can get and try to make it big haha. I really want to buy into Glendale right now. The boom is coming whether we like it or not.

Respect (although Westside>Glendale w/o car IMO). Anyway, enjoy that real estate appreciation and your time in the district of 95-5 precincts and garbage Mexican food.

I mean westside is cool. But it's gonna be westside ten years from now. Glendale is me being a capitalist pig speculator and I think I'll be proven right in due time.

DC is a nice break but back to the roots at the same time. You would get it, since IIRC, you lived in Foggy Bottom. I would love to hear more about that.

And I've actually looked into opening a food truck or restaurant in DC serving tacos. Sounds lame, I know, but the game is weak out there and I got the sauce.
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