Ukraine Crisis

[ag]

No soldier is white and fluffy but Ukraine is much worse then the DPR/LPR, but I'm not arguing anymore because I know what's going on.

I have no doubt, you know. Exactly like the German citizens knew the Jews were to blame for WWII. Of course, the FUHRER said so - and he could not be wrong.

[ag]

BTW, you also apparently know of some Junta somewher in Ukraine. When challenged the first time you provided a link to a civillian council with minor ex-oficio military participation. Would you mind exhibiting your knowledge  and actually standing by your words? Perhaps there is some other junta over there we do not know about?

[ag]

BTW, you also apparently know of some Junta somewher in Ukraine. When challenged the first time you provided a link to a civillian council with minor ex-oficio military participation. Would you mind exhibiting your knowledge  and actually standing by your words? Perhaps there is some other junta over there we do not know about?

Actually that I mistranslated and didn't check who was on it. The one I was talking about has the guy who looks like a pig leading it.

Ah, ok. So not only it is not a military, but also not a council. Who cares, though? Words for you do not mean anything. They are noise waives sent in random directions for our enjoyment.

The sky is green, and that means that an elephant rabbit in Bujumbura shat a secretary general of the Capitalist Warty of Mars, would you agree?

[ag]

BTW, you also apparently know of some Junta somewher in Ukraine. When challenged the first time you provided a link to a civillian council with minor ex-oficio military participation. Would you mind exhibiting your knowledge  and actually standing by your words? Perhaps there is some other junta over there we do not know about?

Actually that I mistranslated and didn't check who was on it. The one I was talking about has the guy who looks like a pig leading it.

BTW, which language did you "mistranslate" what from? Spanish, Russian, Ukrainian? I speak the first two and understand the third pretty well, and I have no clue where the "mistranslation" could come from. Or, perhaps, you have mistranslated the word "mistranslated" as well?

[ag]

As a Libertarian I hate Putin. I also hate the fact that people seriously care about Crimea. I don't want to defend Putin, but what he does in Russia's sperhe of influence isn't a serious threat unless he invades a NATO country.

As a libertarian you should know the Ukraine is a sovereign nation and has the right to align itself in any way its people so choose. If you want to condemn "CIA interventions" in Latin America then I don't see you cannot object to Russia intervening in the Ukraine. And, well, hating about people caring? One would think you'd be bothered by the Ukrainian people being deprived of their liberties.

I view Crimea 2014 the same as Kosovo 1998.  I am very negative on both events and in an equal way.  I think both the West and Russia are hypocritical when they criticize each other for these two events before hold themselves accountable for their on actions on the other.

There is a fundamental difference, though. In fact, there is pretty much nothing in common between the situations.

Before 1998 Kosovo spent almost a decade in a limbo, with the bulk of the population completely disenfranchized and marginalized, not participating in economic, political or social life of the province.  For much of that time the community adhered to its leaders´ call for peaceful civil disobedience - which got them exactly nowhere. Then, when some hotheads dropped the peaceful from their disobedience, Serbian government responded with a massive ethnic cleansing campaign, creating a staggering refugee flow. At this point, an international force was brought in. However, none of the contributors to the force had any designs on any territory (or really wanted to be there in the first place - they had spent 10 years ignoring the problem as much as they could). Nor was the neighboring country, with ethnically similar population, allowed to benefit in any way from what was happening (except in as much as it was spared a nightmare of a refugee crisis). Afterwards, there was a long - though, ultimately unsuccessful - process of negotiations, culminating in a freshly elected legislature pronouncing for independence.

In contrast, Crimea had spent 23 years enjoying the widest autnomy, being the only Ukrainian province without an appointed governor (the PM of Crimea was throughout this time appointed by the locally elected legislature). Unlike in Kosovo, where all public Albanian schools had been closed, Simferopol (Crimean capital) had exactly one Ukrainian-language school - every single other schoold taught in Russian. Throughout this period in regular free elections Crimeans voted en masse for parties, which frequently formed governments in Kiev. At the same time, parties and candidates advocating secession got negligible numbers of votes. Then, with the entire peninsula completely free of any civil or military disturbance, troops from a neighboring country (in unmarked uniforms) entered the territory, expelled and/or intimidated a substantial number of local legislators, had the rump legislature designate as local leaders those same loser sessessionist candidates and call for a referendum on joining the neighboring country. In the referendum there was no option allowed to vote for the status quo, nor was, apparently, the vote counted at all (the numbers published were clearly fake). Afterwards the country was annexed to the troop-providing neighbor - only at which point the neighbor acknowledged that it did send the troops.

Anybody sees any similarities?

[ag]

Hopefully no one fu**s this up.

Well, if we are lucky, we will have a month or two of relatively little shooting. May be, if we are very lucky, it will even be three months, but I have hard time believing it.

[ag]

Russia is a great power with enough nuclear weapons to leave USA as smoldering glass covered wasteland. Yes it would be nice if we could treat it as a defeated enemy or some Middle Eastern or third world sh**thole. We can't and we should accept that and look into how we need to deal with Russia (like remobilise).

I never said we should initiate a shooting war with Russia. Containment followed by RollBack should be the policy. But my main point was hat we should treat this as the threat it actually is.

The Soviet Union had a powerful nuclear arsenal too, but that didn't stop us from doing what it took to win.

'

USA and the rest of NATO did nothing to win, we just contained USSR until it collapsed under it own wrong economical policies, public opposition and demographic change. That's the logical policy to follow with Russia, to contain it and we have succesful done so, even if wasn't completely aware of it, with the expansion of NATO and EU to the east. Now Russia have lost one of its most important client states and instead they have gotten Crimea and a pathetic puppet in eastern Ukraine.

Well, containment should be firmer. The last time I checked Russian trains still could get to Kaliningrad.

[ag]

Well, containment should be firmer. The last time I checked Russian trains still could get to Kaliningrad.

Do you really want a Kaliningrad Airlift?

Yes, I do. It costs money. And the money spent on Kaliningrad Airlift is not spent elsewhere.

[ag]

Besides, until Europe has a replacement for Russian natural gas in place, there's not much more that will be done.

Energy prices are at record low. And, of course, Russia that does not sell gas will not be able to finance the Kaliningrad Airlift.

[ag]

There are a few other things that could be done. Sanction every airline that flies into Crimea (and every airport that receives flights from Crimea). Make the western-oriented states that have not joined in join the sanctions (South Korea, where are you? BTW, when Mr. Netaniyahu comes visiting, as I've heard he is planning, he should get an earfull as well - that would help Speaker Boehner get rid of the charges he cares more about a foreign government, than about his own). Run a few big exercises with the Japanese near the Kuril islands. Invite President Nazarbayev for a State Visit to the US (a speech to Congress would add an extra nice touch).  Have as many presidents and prime ministers as possible attend the V-E Day parade in Kiev - Ukraine is as much as successor to the USSR here as Russia is.  

Actually, even the Greeks have a role to play: they have been talking about asking Russia for money. Great! Have them call the Russian bluff - a few billion USD that Russia lends them would still disappear in the oncoming mess, but would nicely deplete the Russian coffers. Even better, if only one could find a way to have Russia finance the Maduro government: that is a bottomless pit that should be refilled as intensively as possible.

[ag]

There is talk about Putin moving on to Kazakhstan once he is finished subjugating Ukraine.   

A few US bases ranged around Astana, if President Nazarbayev can be persuaded of that, could be useful in that respect.

[ag]

There is talk about Putin moving on to Kazakhstan once he is finished subjugating Ukraine.  

A few US bases ranged around Astana, if President Nazarbayev can be persuaded of that, could be useful in that respect.

Kazakhstan is a case where a border revision would seem reasonable. Unlike Ukraine the cultural difference is huge and the Russians are concentrated near the border.

It would be also nice if you noted where the capital is. Furthermore, ane ethnic map of adjoining parts of Bashkortostan and (a bit further afield) Tatarstan, where "the cultural differerence" is quite similar. Perhaps, that would suggest you why, how should we put it mildly, this might not be any easy solution to implement.

BTW, a lot of the Slavs are... you guessed it: Ukrainian.

Perhaps, this is a better map to peruse:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/d/d5/Central_Asia_Ethnic_en.svg

One thing, though, is certain: there will be no infiltration of "polite green men": Mr. Nazarbayev can be counted on killing those off before they say: "howdy".

[ag]

Do bear in mind that Putin also wants the Baikonur Cosmodrome back, along with bringing the Russian population in Kazakhstan back into the fold. 

What about the Ukrainian population of Kazakhstan?

[ag]

It would be also nice if you noted where the capital is.

And why was the capital moved there?

Well, if you move your capital to a place called the "white grave" you'd better have a reason. It is not like these guys have never suspected that Russia may be somewhat prone to conquest. Unlike many here, Kazakhs tend to speak and read Russian, so they know that in Russia they still clamor not merely for the "Southern Siberia" but also for the good old Russian town of Verny (known to most of you as Almaty). So, rather than waiting for the Russians down South, they decided to strengthen their presence in the North. Would you blame them?

[ag]

There are a few other things that could be done. Sanction every airline that flies into Crimea (and every airport that receives flights from Crimea). Make the western-oriented states that have not joined in join the sanctions (South Korea, where are you? BTW, when Mr. Netaniyahu comes visiting, as I've heard he is planning, he should get an earfull as well - that would help Speaker Boehner get rid of the charges he cares more about a foreign government, than about his own). Run a few big exercises with the Japanese near the Kuril islands. Invite President Nazarbayev for a State Visit to the US (a speech to Congress would add an extra nice touch).  Have as many presidents and prime ministers as possible attend the V-E Day parade in Kiev - Ukraine is as much as successor to the USSR here as Russia is.

This would backfire immensely from a tactical standpoint. The Putin government collapsing (if that is the intended result of your sanction/ostracization proposals) would not result in a liberal Russia, but an ultranationalist and presumably more trigger-happy Russia--that is, the NSDAP to Putin's DNVP.

(If I haven't already, I do apologize for my Putin apologism last year)

Who is talking about making the government collapse? Now, I would love that - but I am. from Russia, I care anout that country. From outsider standpoint it is sufficient that Putin government has little money to engage in mischief.

Nobody knows what will emerge in Russia post-Putin. Public politics is dead there: and public propaganda is in an overdrive. Russian nastyness is emphasized for all to observe. This, of course, is by design: the regime likes pretending to be "Russia's greatest European". The confident predictions of disaster post-Putin are no more grounded in reality than optimistic forecast of immediate victory of liberal democracy.

[ag]

Looks like the rebels captured Debaltseve, not sure how many troops of the Ukrainian Army managed to pull out and how many were captured.

But the Minsk agreements are "very much alive", of course.

[ag]

Looks like the rebels captured Debaltseve, not sure how many troops of the Ukrainian Army managed to pull out and how many were captured.

But the Minsk agreements are "very much alive", of course.

One thing is is interesting is that the Ukrainian army which was trapped in Debaltseve did break out (or at least most of them) and mostly unopposed by the rebels who seems to have managed to at least place the road out under artillery fire if not outright occupation.   This act is actually a signal from the rebels to the Kiev regime that it values the city more than the destruction of the Ukrainian armed forces its which in turn signals goals are limited to trying to create viable mini-state and not the destruction of the current regime in Kiev.  This actually creates some space for possible peace and compromise in the future when it comes to a political settlement of this conflict.  

Destruction of military forces was a difficult strategy for the rebels to implement in this case. Ukraine only had a few thousand troops in the salient - only a small part of its force. An attempt to "destroy" them would result in major losses on the rebel side: these were still well-armed and would fight for their lives. It is far from clear that the rebel casualties would be much - if at all - smaller in that case. And the rebel draft base - unless you count the Russian volunteers and "volunteers" is much smaller than that of Ukraine (the occupied area even in the best of times had, may be, 4 mln. people, of which almost half - including most of the young men - has left; Ukraine is a country of over 40 mln people). So, human casualties are much harder for the rebels to replace (except, by getting people from Russia itself, of course: which is, in fact, what has sustained the war).

[ag]

Putin is suffering from the same kind of trauma that Hitler suffered from, just a bit different. Hitler had a WW1 trauma (personally as a soldier, and more universally with Germany getting destroyed and blamed and footed with the bills).

Putin still suffers a Cold War trauma (also personally => he was a spy, and more universally: Russia got its ass kicked and thrown backwards economically).

Both Hitler and Putin then and now want to compensate it by "making their country strong" and by occupying further land "for the needs of our people".

Both the people of Russia and Nazi Austro-Germany also have/had unwavering and blind trust in their Führer (Hitler/Putin).

Both peoples are also similarly xenophobic and fascist.

As you can see, there are some troubling similarities between them.

LOL

Otherwise: One more similarity is that the war/"war" ended with significant German/Russian minorities left in neighbouring countries. In the Soviet case that was an unnecessary error.

Are you telling me you would prefer a massive deportation of Russians in 1991? So kind of you.

It would still not work, at least for Ukraine: you would have to separate millions of families. There is a continuum of self-identifications there. And, while there is no doubt in Lviv or Vologda (or even in Moscow or Kiev), there is a reason the war in Donbass is so violent now. Perhaps you are unaware, but the Ukrainian draft is failing in the West - Halicians do not care about dying for Donetsk. The bulk of the crack Ukrainian units (including the most nationalistic ones) are easterners, many from Donetsk itself - they are fighting for their homes. And, while it is true that Russia has registered hundreds of thousands of refugees from Donetsk - Ukraine by now has got over a million who fled West.

Either not following the 1991 administrative borders or engaging in deportations (India partition style) would have resulted in, conservatively, millions dead - there and then. Keep that in mind, please.

[ag]

That's fair enough, I'll admit that all of these wars have had some reactive element to them from Russia's part. You were not defending the wars, you just pointed out that they didn't come out of nowhere. You're right in that.

The Chechen nationalists were undoubtedly horrible, but they were not IS. The government & most people who supported it were secular, but the government was too weak to control the Islamists. It was the latter that attacked Dagestan. The Chechen "government" offered Russia to crack down on the Islamists, but it was refused and a full scale invasion launched instead. In any case, I never said I supported the "brave Chechen Muhadjins". It is well known that both sides committed the worst atrocities in that war.

Putin's real problem is that he's too old. He still sees things from the Cold War KGB mentality which he never left behind. Otherwise, why would he even care that Ukraine is pro-Western? In his mind, pro-Western = anti-Russian (to be fair many others have this mentality too, but Putin only reinforces it).

I agree you're right, Putin should have retired last election. It would have been better for Russia and it would have a whole lot better for his legacy.

Russia has not had a proper presidential election since 2000. Are you suggesting he should not have run the first time?

[ag]

I always wondered what a Sjuganow government would have looked like.

Think Maduro, but with less charisma.

[ag]

That's fair enough, I'll admit that all of these wars have had some reactive element to them from Russia's part. You were not defending the wars, you just pointed out that they didn't come out of nowhere. You're right in that.

The Chechen nationalists were undoubtedly horrible, but they were not IS. The government & most people who supported it were secular, but the government was too weak to control the Islamists. It was the latter that attacked Dagestan. The Chechen "government" offered Russia to crack down on the Islamists, but it was refused and a full scale invasion launched instead. In any case, I never said I supported the "brave Chechen Muhadjins". It is well known that both sides committed the worst atrocities in that war.

Putin's real problem is that he's too old. He still sees things from the Cold War KGB mentality which he never left behind. Otherwise, why would he even care that Ukraine is pro-Western? In his mind, pro-Western = anti-Russian (to be fair many others have this mentality too, but Putin only reinforces it).

I agree you're right, Putin should have retired last election. It would have been better for Russia and it would have a whole lot better for his legacy.

Russia has not had a proper presidential election since 2000. Are you suggesting he should not have run the first time?

I suggested that he should have let his crony (Dmitry Medvedev) stay president in 2012 and he should have retired to a mansion on the Black Sea coast, more or less like Yeltsin did.

I know what you WANTED to suggest. But you suggested something quite different.

He cannot retire. He will be eaten alive if he does. Medvedev was in office only because Putin was in power. In order for Medvedev to be in power, he would have to kill Putin. Doubt he is capable of that, so, most likely, he would himself be killed and replaced by somebody who would have to kill Putin to stay alive. This is the logic of the house that Putin built.