Kingpoleon (Independent - AR) - 224Goldwater (Libertarian - CA) 199 (eventual win in House)
President MB (Independent Progressive - OR) 115Analysis:Kingpoleon ran a mostly centrist, populist campaign, Goldwater ran a conservative-libertarian campaign, and MB ran a more progressive campaign. Most polls the day before predicted a Kingpoleon win (
287 -
136 -
115), so the result was a surprise.
Kingpoleon fared mostly well in the former two-party system's "swing states." However, he also performed quite well in the states that felt his mostly populist message, which made races in traditionally conservative states much closer than normal, such as in Montana (
40.1% -
39.5% -
20.4%). However, the states that most thought he would win, but he didn't, (per the first paragraph) were Montana, Texas, Wisconsin, and Ohio. However, after two weeks of recounts, he pulled out a surprise win in Utah (
36.1% -
36.0% -
27.9%).
With no surprise, Goldwater won most of the conservative states. While he did deliver slight surprises by winning Texas (in the end, the conservatives turned out and he led by 10 points), Montana, and Ohio, his most notable shock win was in Wisconsin, where he was not called the "apparent winner" until 4pm the next day, by a margin of 1,203 votes. However, Kingpoleon did not ask for a recount as he (mistakenly) believed that the state was moot and he could win in the House. (Although, it wouldn't have helped him any either.) The final margin was
40.3% -
40.1% -
19.6%.
There were no surprises on incumbent President MB's side of the election, as he won all the states that he was forecast to win in the final polls of the campaign. However, he had an impressive lead at the beginning of the campaign which had him in the lead in polls in Arizona, Nevada, Washington, Oregon, Minnesota, Florida, New Jersey, and Florida, which would have put him at 224, and also arguably would have helped his standing in the contingent election for President in the House. He lost his lead to Kingpoleon throughout the campaign due to Kingpoleon's populist message resonating with the voters. His closest state was Nevada, which was narrowly lost with the final tally at
31.6% -
29.4% -
22.1% -
16.9%, a popular Senator from Nevada. However, MB still had one of the best performances as a
Progressive Party-backed candidate (he ran on an Independent Progressive ticket, though during his first term he was a
Democrat, as he switched parties as there was discontent in the Democratic ranks, due to a recession).
The election was thrown to the Libertarian-GOP coalition-controlled House of Representatives, which had a makeup of
118 Lib.,
108 Rep.,
6 Con.,
4 Rfm.,
28 Mod.,
101 Dem., and
70 Pro.After three months of deal-making between the three candidates, and five days before inauguration, which left the nation in even more suspense than Bush vs. Gore, Goldwater, seen as the compromise candidate between the conservative members of the House, was largely voted in by the
Libertarian,
Republican,
Conservative, and
Moderate-leaning state delegations, which provided a win of 28 states (26 to win an absolute majority, which is needed). A deal reached by the compromise meant that many of the same members who voted for Goldwater voted for Kingpoleon's VP, Jeb Bush. The Senate, split along similar party lines, voted
52 for Jeb!,
3 for And what is Aleppo?, and
45 for Malik Obama.
The incoming ticket was as such:
Pres.-elect Goldwater (L-CA)/
VP-elect Jeb Bush.
I spent
way too much time on this. Help me.
