Young people, and minorities will not be anywhere near the numbers they were in 2008. If anything, conservatives will be the more motivated to vote next year, and Obama's poor numbers among whites are only likely to be stronger than in 2008.
My guess is a very close result, either a narrow Republican victory or a narrow Obama re-election. Something like this give or take a state or two:
Pennsylvania more GOP than North Carolina is insane. NC was the closest Obama state in 2008 and only swung his way because Barr played spoiler.
