So the 2012 election boiled down to four states -- Colorado, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, any of which would decide the election. Those states are different enough and separated enough that there is no way to make an appeal that could resonate in all four of those states without
shifting America on the whole.
There has been movement in party affiliation due to demographic shifts. Not seismic, but incremental. Virginia looks a little bit more like Maryland. North Carolina looks a little bit more like Virginia. Georgia looks a little bit more cosmopolitan and less Southern every year, though this change is not enough to put it in play just yet. The industrial Midwest is getting whiter, and more Republican, while the Sunbelt is getting more diverse, and more Democratic.
Combine this with the type of candidate Donald Trump is, and how he built his appeal, and the model may need tweaking. Florida and Virginia may be too diverse to be within Trump's reach, and Ohio may be too white and industrial to be within Clinton's reach - in a close election. I also believe Nate Silver's model for PA is built too heavily on outlier polls (+11 and +13 polls when there is a preponderance of tied or +1-4 polls).
I think if there are four states that decide the election, they are now Colorado, Iowa, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. It still is, of course, Clinton's to lose, and Trump's to lose spectacularly, as you say, but those four states are now the critical path.
I don't think Virginia will ever have the Black Population that Maryland has but I will give you that NOVA looks more like Maryland than most of rest of Virginia.
I think North Carolina and Virginia always vote pretty similar in Presidential Elections.
Georgia-Yeah I went to the Atlanta Suburbs last year and I expected a culture shock with a bunch of people with Southern Accents but there was nobody really with a Southern accent barely. Basically its a Southern area that's basically Northern now.
The Industrial Midwest is basically is staying D.
Hillary I think will win Ohio. Romney got 55% of the white vote according to Nate Cohn. So Trump would have to get 58% of the White Vote to win the state I think even in a 2012 electoral climate.
