The .pdf looks like it was ONLY done by Greeenburg, Quinlan, Rosner(D) - But thats ok, still a good firm.
Thanks for the link, Vorlon!
It's quite academic and somewat pointless at this juncture (4+ months from the election), but I'm just curious on your opinion... Which poll do you think is right, this one or Harris... or neither? They were taken around the same time with reasonably similar samples, but rather starkly different results (Harris has a healthy 10% lead for Bush, GQR has a dead heat).
My own speculation is that, with Harris showing 6% Nader and GQR leaving him out... most of that would otherwise go to Kerry. So, bumping Nader out of Harris might leave that poll at something like Bush 51%, Kerry 47%. With that, the two polls are rather close.
The real problem is, is a poll with Nader or without Nader more accurate? On the one hand, Nader is certain to sap some support from Kerry. On the other hand, Nader won't be on the ballot everywhere... so in those states, head-to-head might be more accurate. Makes for an extremely difficult analysis... head-to-head it looks like darned near a dead heat; but Bush is clearly ahead (and maybe by a fair margin!) in a three-way race.