Scottish independence referendum 2017?

[Helsinkian]

Looks like Brussels isn't that enamoured with the SNP:

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3660320/NON-EU-slaps-Sturgeon-SNP-leader-dramatically-announces-wants-immediate-discussions-STAY-EU-humiliated-Brussels-says-No-s-not-works.html

[Helsinkian]

One issue is that Sturgeon truly believes that Scotland as an EU member state could hold on to the pound, while the EU has made it clear that all new member states are obligated to adopt the euro after a transitional period. Brussels has no real incentive to make an exception in the case of Scotland.

[Helsinkian]

not strictly true, Denmark (and the exUK) have official opt outs, the Swedes have an official policy of intentionally failing to meet the criteria for joining and the Poles and others are also dragging their feet

As I said, all new member states have to adopt the euro eventually. The exceptions given to UK & Denmark don't apply to new joiners.

And Scotland can be sure that the they won't find favourable negotiation partners in Brussels if they say that it is their intention to deliberately skirt the rules and punt on the currency.

[Helsinkian]

tl;dr version:
Scotland cannot join the Eurozone on independence.

Right, but eventually an independent Scotland would have to join it. It might be 15 or 20 or 30 years after joining the EU but ultimately it would happen.

Let's remember that most of the Brussels elite firmly believe in the idea of a federal pan-European state. They are willing to strive for that goal through small incremental acts of increasing uniformity and centralisation but they have no doubt of what the endgame is. In such a future there is no room for heterogeneity among member states.

[Helsinkian]

Yeah, I'm sure the Brussels federalists would not pressure you in any way on that issue. Especially when they hold pretty much all the cards in the negotiations.

The eurofederalists, who are a majority among the Brussels technocrats, have for a long time been annoyed at the UK's unwillingness to follow the other member states in furthering the European integration. With UK's exit, the EU elites see a chance for greater integration for the member states remaining in the union (just look at Guy Verhofstadt's comments). That means greater homogeneity and less opt-outs.

[Helsinkian]

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http://www.politico.eu/article/is-scotland-heading-for-another-referendum-brexit-nicola-sturgeon-uk/?utm_content=buffer6e476&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

There is obviously the case of Quebec as a warning example: two lost referendums in succession can strike a major blow against the cause.