Canadian by-elections, 2012

[RogueBeaver]

Sounds good. Has McGuinty set a date for Kitchener-Waterloo yet?

[pugbug]

Cardy is a competent leader, but according to the polls he is still relatively unknown and does not run ahead of the party in popularity. This was actually the first time in his life that he had run for public office. He is not (at least not yet) the Jack Layton of New Brunswick...he is more comparable to Alexa MacDonough in the early 1980s - competent, still unknown to 95% of the population etc...Let's also keep in mind that this byelection was called very very fast - literally within a week of the seat becoming vacant. The number of NDP members in Rothesay could literally be counted on one hand and a campaign had to be built from scratch - the PC and Libs on the other hand have long, long histories of being competitive there and have organizational machines that totally dwarf anything the NDP can put in place on such short notice.

Oh wow, I didn't know all that, but now that I do, it really seems as if he would have done a lot better if he had had more time. I'm not sure if there's a statistic out there about how often elections are won by first time candidates, but it can't be too high a number. His name is out there now, and whatever the next provincial election or by-election brings, he'll probably be the first NDP MLA elected in quite a few years.

On a side note, I'd like to point out what an awesome post that was by Hatman on his blog. That's my boyfriend, everybody, and he makes me so proud!

[MaxQue]

That map proves than the media analysis than CAQ only ate Liberal vote is wrong.
We can see than PQ had significant progress in Lachute and the Liberal areas, but has significant decline in Saint-Colomban and Saint-Adolphe-d'Howard.

The decline in suburbs is explained by the return of the ADQ-CAQ, but the gains in more regional areas of PQ aren't evident. Backlash over Liberal corruption scandal? I doubt the student crisis has an effect there, as I don't imagine people there opposing scolarity hikes.

The result in Saint-Colomban was awful, they did 13% there. So, we can suppose than the PQ-CAQ split couldn't even cause Liberal gains in suburbs?

CAQ won 7 precincts (4 in Saint-Colomban, 1 in Morin Heights, 1 in Mille-Isles and 1 in Lac-des-Seize-Îles) and tied one with PQ in Brownsburg-Chatham (which isn't anymore as anglophone than the name imply).

[Hatman 🍁]

looks like CAQ ate into both parties.

[MaxQue]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/story/2012/06/28/nb-rothesay-byelection-results-222.html

CBC is being competent and did a precinct map and an analysis of the Rothesay by-election!

[Hatman 🍁]

CBC New Brunswick did a lot of poll maps for the municipal elections, so this doesn't surprise me.

I can defenitely see a correlation between the NDP 2011 results in the riding and Cardy's numbers. while the share of the vote was similar, Cardy won more polls because of the vote split.

Here is the 2011 NDP map for those who didn't get a chance to read my blog

[RogueBeaver]

Durham becomes vacant with Bev Oda's resignation effective July 31.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1221037--analysis-bev-oda-goes-away-quietly-true-to-form-in-harper-s-ottawa

[RogueBeaver]

Bourque reporting that Erin O'Toole, a Heenan lawyer, is being tipped to win the Tory nomination in the impending Durham by-election. No confirmation or link yet.

[MaxQue]

Oh, as if we need another corporate sellout from them...

[adma]

Related to MPP John O'Toole, I presume?

[Holmes]

The NDP needs a good candidate here. With no chance of winning in Calgary-Centre or coming in second place in Etobicoke-Centre, there is a good chance of a respectable showing in Durham. Probably not a win, but a good showing might help momentum.

[RogueBeaver]

Adma: His son.

More on candidate selection.

http://www.durhamregion.com/news/article/1387028--scramble-begins-in-durham-riding-to-replace-bev-oda

[Hatman 🍁]

Only way for the NDP to win is a strong Liberal Party showing, and coming up the middle a la 1990. Not going to happen. Plus, the area is not like it used to be... when was the last time Oshawa went NDP?

[lilTommy]

The NDP will run the same candidate as in 11... by the sounds of it? the page is still up and looks like its still being updated?

GM workers, CAW gal, environmentalist... single mother, sounds like Andrea Horwath sans the Line worker

http://www.facebook.com/#!/pages/Tammy-Schoep-Federal-NDP-Candidate-for-Durham-Riding/338572158128

The last time the NDP won Any Durham riding must have been 1990?

[RogueBeaver]

Only way for the NDP to win is a strong Liberal Party showing, and coming up the middle a la 1990. Not going to happen. Plus, the area is not like it used to be... when was the last time Oshawa went NDP?

When Broadbent had it?

[lilTommy]

Only way for the NDP to win is a strong Liberal Party showing, and coming up the middle a la 1990. Not going to happen. Plus, the area is not like it used to be... when was the last time Oshawa went NDP?

When Broadbent had it?

Well Michael Breaugh held it till 93 (replaced Bradbent in 90); and Prov. Allan Pilkey held it till 95 (one of 12 to vote against Bill 167, which is one of the reasons why we lost the riding in 95!).
In 90's the NDP held all 4 Durham ridings (prov.)

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, the last time the NDP won Oshawa federally or provincially was 1990. Wow! Same year the rest of Durham went NDP. Weirdness. Of course the margins were different. We got over 60% of the vote in Oshawa, and the other Durham seats were won with around 35%. Breaugh won the seat in a 1990 by-election with 48%. He then lost it in 1993 with only 15%. The closest we've come since was Sid Ryan back in 2004 when he lost by 500 votes. The collapse of the Liberals in 2011 really helped the Tories who actually increased the margin of victory over the NDP. Looks like the NDP can't break 40% in the riding, and need a strong Liberal candidate to have a shot at winning.

[lilTommy]

Yeah, the last time the NDP won Oshawa federally or provincially was 1990. Wow! Same year the rest of Durham went NDP. Weirdness. Of course the margins were different. We got over 60% of the vote in Oshawa, and the other Durham seats were won with around 35%. Breaugh won the seat in a 1990 by-election with 48%. He then lost it in 1993 with only 15%. The closest we've come since was Sid Ryan back in 2004 when he lost by 500 votes. The collapse of the Liberals in 2011 really helped the Tories who actually increased the margin of victory over the NDP. Looks like the NDP can't break 40% in the riding, and need a strong Liberal candidate to have a shot at winning.

I think the same will be true in quite a few ridings actually... for the NDP to win, the Liberals need to be what, above 25% provincewide? any lower and the tories keep the seats they have in the GTA...

Has me wondering, Does the NDP have really no chance in Calgary Centre? What would be a good-momentum showing? 20+?

[Hatman 🍁]

No chance in Calgary Centre. You might be able to gerrymander a Tory-minority seat in Calgary (something similar to the old Calgary Centre riding that Joe Clark won), but it's not going NDP as is. Even if Joe Clark himself ran for the NDP, he would not win. (btw, he has said some pro Mulcair things recently )

Speaking of which- quiz time: what former federal Tory cabinet minister is a current NDP supporter?

[DL]

David McDonald - who went from being a PC cabinet minister to being Alexa MacDonough's boyfriend?

[DL]

I don't think we should even talk about Oshawa in the same breath as Durham. While the NDP has not won Oshawa since 1990 - it has had a popular vote there way above the Ontario average in every election. Durham is more of a dead zone - though in addition to winning there in 1990, the ONDP also won Durham East in 1975!

I don't think its as simple as saying that for the NDP to win Oshawa the Liberals need to be stronger. It depends on HOW they are stronger. I don't think it would help the NDP at all in Oshawa if the Liberals ran some really progressive left-liberal who gained ground by cutting into the NDP vote!!

Quite frankly, i think the reason the NDP keeps hitting the ceiling in Oshawa is that they keep running a succession of "old NDP" candidates who appeal to the CAW crowd but are not all all attractive to all the middle class suburbanistes in Oshawa who do NOT work for GM and who might be open to the NDP if the candidate wasn't always such a throwback to another era. As long as the NDP keeps running people like Sid Ryan and a succession of CAW local presidents they will keep hitting that ceiling. Maybe in 2015 they will find a candidate who the auto workers like but who also has some appeal to the suburban commuters who live in Oshawa who might want a progressive alternative to harper and Co.

[adma]

Quite frankly, i think the reason the NDP keeps hitting the ceiling in Oshawa is that they keep running a succession of "old NDP" candidates who appeal to the CAW crowd but are not all all attractive to all the middle class suburbanistes in Oshawa who do NOT work for GM and who might be open to the NDP if the candidate wasn't always such a throwback to another era. As long as the NDP keeps running people like Sid Ryan and a succession of CAW local presidents they will keep hitting that ceiling. Maybe in 2015 they will find a candidate who the auto workers like but who also has some appeal to the suburban commuters who live in Oshawa who might want a progressive alternative to harper and Co.

And plus, let's face it, Harper + Co. have been attractive to locals, esp. w/seat incombency,  It isn't just a matter of "progressive alternative"; it's a matter of giving voters a concrete excuse to reject the Conservatives.  And in Ontario in 2011, Laytonmania wasn't enough of an excuse to eject a Con-incumbent.

However, now there is a good excuse for Ontarioans to reject the incumbent Conservatives--majority hubris.  (Obvious case in point: Bev Oda.)  And any upset potential for the NDP would be more out of populism than progressivism--the same populism that led a lot of those 1990 Rae-NDP voters to vote federally Reform three years later.

It's also worth noting that a lot of 2011's best NDP polls in Durham actually happened to be in newer subdivisions, in places like Bowmanville's outer reaches--maybe reflective of Layton's appeal to the kinds of younger demographics that set up their first home here...

[Hatman 🍁]

David McDonald - who went from being a PC cabinet minister to being Alexa MacDonough's boyfriend?

I was thinking of another McDonald.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think we should even talk about Oshawa in the same breath as Durham. While the NDP has not won Oshawa since 1990 - it has had a popular vote there way above the Ontario average in every election. Durham is more of a dead zone - though in addition to winning there in 1990, the ONDP also won Durham East in 1975!

I don't think its as simple as saying that for the NDP to win Oshawa the Liberals need to be stronger. It depends on HOW they are stronger. I don't think it would help the NDP at all in Oshawa if the Liberals ran some really progressive left-liberal who gained ground by cutting into the NDP vote!!

Quite frankly, i think the reason the NDP keeps hitting the ceiling in Oshawa is that they keep running a succession of "old NDP" candidates who appeal to the CAW crowd but are not all all attractive to all the middle class suburbanistes in Oshawa who do NOT work for GM and who might be open to the NDP if the candidate wasn't always such a throwback to another era. As long as the NDP keeps running people like Sid Ryan and a succession of CAW local presidents they will keep hitting that ceiling. Maybe in 2015 they will find a candidate who the auto workers like but who also has some appeal to the suburban commuters who live in Oshawa who might want a progressive alternative to harper and Co.

You're right, the NDP keeps running duds in Oshawa, but who do you think holds all the NDP memberships in Oshawa? CAW folk. The NDP would win the seat with someone new, but unless Mulcair swoops in and appoints someone, it's not going to happen.

[DL]

Mulcair does not have the power to "swoop in and appoint" anyone in Oshawa and even though the bulk of NDP members in Oshawa may be with the CAW doesn't mean that the candidate has to be an old fashioned union leader. Back in 1968 all those auto workers in Oshawa chose as their federal candidate a political philosophy professor from York University with a passion for John Stewart Mill. His name was Ed Broadbent!