If Obama's approval rating is actually +10, Hillary's got this.
Can you please explain to me why you think this when hillary's numbers are nearly as bad as trump's?
Obama's numbers are what they are now because when people look at the horrendous options we will have on the ballot in a few months, he looks better in comparison.
According to the most recent gallup data I can found, economic worry is on the rise a bit and is highest in 3 years at almost 60%, while like 70% of folks think we are heading in the wrong direction as a nation.
I don't think his favorably ratings are going to be a factor.
Hillary's fate as at least somewhat tied to Obama's. If people generally approve of Obama, they're far more likely to vote for someone who promises to continue his policies. I was referring specifically to Michigan in this case, but if Obama's national numbers are that good on election day, I don't see any way Trump can win. There could be some oddballs who approve of Obama but vote for Trump, but there are also likely to be some who disapprove of Obama, but won't vote for Trump.
I think I agree that Obama +10 or higher nationally would seal the deal against Trump, but he's currently +1-5 nationally and that's where I think it will stay. Obama +4ish nationally with the current economy would suggest a tie between Generic R and Generic D. As long as Hillary keeps her favorables decently above Trump's, she should be OK, but don't expect a landslide.
Why not? His campaign is in debt and he has no data analytics. He eschews a robust ground operation. He relies on free media and social media. I mean, in a relatively close election, all of these factors will matter and tip states away from him.
