UK General Election - May 7th 2015

[afleitch]

YouGov have polled Scotland gain. Changes since their February 2nd poll

SNP 46 (-2)
LAB 27
CON 18 (+3)
LIB 4
UKIP 2 (-2)
GRN 3

Only really interesting news is the further drop in Jim Murphy's approval rating. 26% think he's doing well down from 33%

[afleitch]

Are there not enough immigrants in Scotland to make "Born Outside the UK" a viable polling option?

It's counted for in that poll actually, but the sample size is too small to be worth anything (weighted at 53 people) but here's the figures for that for fun;

SNP 36
CON 24
LAB 22
LIB 11

[afleitch]

Anyway it does seem, for however long it lasts, that Scottish politics new political cleavage is along Nationalist-Unionist lines, perhaps irrespective of what the UK wide issues are.

I'm voting SNP for the first time in a Westminster election, so my own politics have now aligned with how I vote at Holyrood. Given that the vote shares for both elections in the polls are in sync (and mirror what actually happened in 2011) it might be the case that other people are thinking along the same lines.

[afleitch]

Basically all Norn Iron parties stand for MOAR MONIES and blatant communal headcounting. The Alliance are the exception, standing mostly for ineffectual handwringing. Almost everything else is window dressing.

How else can you get votes from civil servants?

[afleitch]

2010 was also, based on canvass chatter, more likely to have been a genuine swing to the government from Lib Dem voters rather than polling error. It was a 2:1 split Labour/Tory but probably cost the Lib Dems up to 20-30 seats.

[afleitch]

Very good news for the SNP who otherwise would get lost in the campaign. By default Sturgeon 'represents Scotland' which although entirely unintentional will help them, particularly as Farage is expected to go full on tw@t.

[afleitch]

Agreement on debates reached. One seven-way debate on ITV on April 2nd, a 90-minute grilling of Cameron and Miliband on Channel 4/Sky News on March 26th, a five-way opposition leaders debate on the BBC on April 16th and a Question Time special on April 30th with Cameron, Miliband and Clegg each appearing individually (which is something that has happened in the past).

Presumably there will be a 'Chancellor's Debate' at some point too.

Cameron the coward.

Imagine if Gordon Brown had tried to pull this one.

Actually I agree with Cameron's view on this one. If you're going to have debates, they have to be grounded in the fact that this is not a two party system. The 2010 format was fine, now there are more parties that are showing up support in the polls which adds UKIP, Greens and the SNP into the mix. Plaid are added for equal measure. The idea for a 'head to head' between the Tory and Labour leaders as if that was the only decision that mattered, was actually quite un-democratic.

[afleitch]

So then do you oppose head to head US presidential debates? There are typically about 50 odd people actually on the ballot - why not let them all have equal time on stage with the Democratic and GOP nominees?

No because the USA is a two party system and when a third party has challenged (1992) consideration can be given for their inclusion in debates. The UK is not a two party system as different parties challenge in different areas.

[afleitch]

We all know that notoriously sh!tty debater David Cameron's endlessly shifting final demands over the debates are probably not unconnected to the fact that he is a notoriously sh!tty debater.

Of course! Why else would he have stuck to what he wanted to do? He will be facing a den involving a politically castrated Nick Clegg and everyone else perceived as a baying mob against him/the government. And he is more popular than all of them, and has maintained a relative popularity that no Tory predecessor has had since Macmillan and in this showdown he will be the 'underdog' and only has to hold his own to 'win' it.

It's the only winnable position for him. The more opponents the better. Even if Miliband isn't crap, he'll be lost in the melee. For the same reason it's a win-win for Nicola 'Voice of Scotland' Sturgeon who can politically take a step back from it all, try to 'out labour Labour' except this time in front of the entire country and return north.

[afleitch]

We all know that notoriously sh!tty debater David Cameron's endlessly shifting final demands over the debates are probably not unconnected to the fact that he is a notoriously sh!tty debater.

Of course! Why else would he have stuck to what he wanted to do?

Oh come on now, you're better than that. Do you not remember how he treated GB last time when he spent a while making up his mind on the debates? EdM and the PM will be in the same studio and the same time, but they won't debate. What kind've farce is that?

He knows that the debates shot his chances at a majority in the arm last time and he's scared of that happening again.

Err. I'm agreeing with Al actually; Cameron set up what would benefit him debate wise and got it. The broadcasters got ahead of themselves in proposing things without getting agreement. With respect to the 'head to head', there wasn't one in 2010, so why should there be now?

[afleitch]

ICM Scotland

SNP 43
LAB 27(+1)
CON 14 (+1)
UKIP 7
LD 6
GRN 3 (-1)

So, same again.

[afleitch]

Interesting, Ed Miliband is in Clydebank today in front of Scottish Labour supporters but sounds like he's addressing a non Scottish audience who seem to think Alex Salmond is still SNP leader. Something all parties have been guilty of in recent weeks; Salmond bashing is contagious. At least it's caused Scottish Labour to finally shut up about Thatcher.

[afleitch]

It's also worth noting that Farage's personal ratings have tanked and are now at Milibandesque levels but with the added problem that they are now the main party that people are least likely to vote for. Don't expect much tactical voting to enable UKIP; probably quite the opposite.

[afleitch]

SNP fairly openly saying that they would vote down a Tory government/coalition Queens Speech. Sturgeon is apparently debate prepping right now to essentially sell the SNP to the UK electorate as the party that 'forces Labour to act like Labour' in government. There's some suggestion that Salmond strutting at Westminster these past few weeks, coupled with intense focus on him as being the SNP by parties and the media is simply designed to give Sturgeon a bit of an impact on the day.

[afleitch]

It's also worth noting that Farage's personal ratings have tanked and are now at Milibandesque levels but with the added problem that they are now the main party that people are least likely to vote for. Don't expect much tactical voting to enable UKIP; probably quite the opposite.

Yep.  I was more thinking of UKIP->CON tactical voting.  

I think in that case it won't necessarily be 'tactical' voting, but simply Tory voters that have a two year dalliance with UKIP returning to the party.

[afleitch]

SNP fairly openly saying that they would vote down a Tory government/coalition Queens Speech. Sturgeon is apparently debate prepping right now to essentially sell the SNP to the UK electorate as the party that 'forces Labour to act like Labour' in government. There's some suggestion that Salmond strutting at Westminster these past few weeks, coupled with intense focus on him as being the SNP by parties and the media is simply designed to give Sturgeon a bit of an impact on the day.

The struggle is, as is the struggle for the other 6 leaders is, because there's so many of them, it won't just be about her so there's limited space for her to get a look in - especially on anything anybody south of the border will care about.

She doesn't need to get much in at all. She won't be addressing the public and saying 'this is why should vote for my party' like pretty much everyone else, because most of them can't. Simply appearing is enough in terms of a boost for the party in Scotland who despite their quite shockingly high support (even for an old pro like me) could still get lost in the media campaign up here. She just has to outline as quickly as she can, what the SNP are and what they would do with respect to Labour. The SNP's message has been for a number of years now; we are what the Labour party should which can now been given to the whole country. Whether you agree with that positioning or not, it allows her to offer Miliband tentative support while digging her nails into his arm at the same time.

The SNP want Labour neutered as a force in Scotland whether the status quo continues or they end up in coalition with them. In fact a coalition would be better because they can squeeze out concessions in time for the 2016 Holyrood elections.

[afleitch]

Because we don't have enough polls at the moment, Panelbase have expanded operations beyond Scotland. And they tell us that things are: Labour 34, Con 34, UKIP 15, Greens 6, LDem 5.

Safety in numbers. Which perhaps suggests no one has a clue what's going on.

[afleitch]

Ed looked like he was 'trying out' some approaches tonight. He had some impressive moments, but others where he really struggled and at times people seemed to be laughing more at him than at the jokes he was making. He has time to hone his technique before the next debate.

YouGov for fun

CON 36
LAB 34
UKIP 13
LD 7
GRN 5

[afleitch]

Miliband came out fighting last night, people have responded to that and there'a buzz about Ed now. Questions were aggressive and bias-asking DC if he has had 3 shredded wheat then asking Ed if he's a north london geek.

Ed stuck it to DC

You need more tint on your glasses

[afleitch]

For those that need one:

[afleitch]

Portsmouth South is going to be a bunfight.

[afleitch]

The pollsters hate us all right now. After a 4 point Labour lead with YouGov, ComRes have a 4 point Tory lead, their biggest since 2010.

[afleitch]

We have a London poll and a Welsh poll today. We also have Populus

CON 34 (+3)
LAB 34 (+1)
LIB 8 (-1)
UKIP 15 (-1)
GRN 4 (-1)

[afleitch]

YouGov, sensing a false start on their Milibounce have pulled it back to 35-35.