Australia 2013 - Results thread

[Talleyrand]

Greenway looks excellent, a 3.5% swing or so to the ALP so far, which would allow them to hold the seat with between 54% to 55% of the vote. Looks like Diaz really was a dud candidate.

Dobbell is VERY very close, and Labor's narrowly ahead (although it's fluctuating around 50-50). Same situation in Solomon.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Solomon... ALP gain?

[Talleyrand]

Solomon... ALP gain?

The ALP computer seems to think that's a 50-50 shot, but that's estimating the preferences for several booths (the CLP is leading overall in the 13 booths which have been redistributed). 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I thought Solomon was the ALPs best chance in the whole country for a gain...

[Hifly]

When are pre-polls counted?

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Clive Palmer still in with a shot in Fairfax, surprised Dick Adams lost Lyons though. I must admit I'm glad Jaymes Diaz lost Greenway though, he would have been a bad member.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Most tonight - the rest later...

[Antonio the Sixth]

So seems like it will end with Labor slightly under 60 and Coalition slightly under 90.

[countydurhamboy]

I'm right in thinking pre-polls will favour the coalition?

[Talleyrand]

In another Sydney seat which had been counted as a somewhat likely loss prior to tonight, Parramatta, Labor's Julie Owens seems to be holding her seat with 51.2% of the vote, suffering a 3.3% swing to the Liberals.

[Vosem]

Last update has Petrie shifting from 'likely ALP retain' to 'in doubt LIB ahead'. Capricornia and Petrie the only seats that really seem to still be competitive in Queensland, since it seems Katter has narrowly survived the single most ferocious swing in the nation (15% against him -- short of the necessary 18%) and that Palmer has very narrowly carried Fairfax.

In Sydney, only Barton still too close to call, along with Dobell outside of Sydney up the coast. Amazingly, another unreally close seat, Solomon, might be the only seat in the country to shift from the Coalition to Labor even as the Northern Territory's other seat decisively switches in the other direction.

[RogueBeaver]

Plus pre polls. Senate will be really interesting but we won't know that outcome for a couple of weeks. Presumably the new Parliament meets next month? Of course Abbott should be sworn in on the 16th or so, per the '07 transition schedule.

[countydurhamboy]

Just noticed but so far, only Kennedy and Dawson have bigger swings to the LNP than griffith.  Rudd has done rather badly.

[Mr. Morden]

ABC has the first Senate results in for Tasmania (only 7.49% of the vote so far):

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/results/senate/tas/

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Lyons has tightened again; probably still gone, but you never know.

[Smid]

Labor looks like putting Palmer in Parliament. Good news being, the more seats Labor retains, the less they'll risk a DD on the Carbon Tax.

[Platypus]

Uncomfortable looking private school boy at Turnbull's party is amaaahhhhzing.

[Vosem]

ABC has the first Senate results in for Tasmania (only 7.49% of the vote so far):

http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2013/results/senate/tas/

There's results from NSW too, but the Coalition (presumably by accident) is marked as having gotten 0 votes. Currently 3 Labor, 1 Greens, 1 LDP, 1 Australian Democrats.

More seriously, Tassie looks like 2 ALP, 2 Libs, 1 PUP, and 1 Greens, though obviously this could all shift very radically -- at one point in the preference count, the PUP is beating the Shooters & Fishers by just 700 votes.

[Talleyrand]

...There's definitely a glitch on the Senate calculations on ABC's website

[Vosem]

Looks like Greenway is an ALP hold though - and WTF Fowler?

ABC has Greenway and Fowler as 'safe ALP retain'...

Look at the swing though

Oh, wow. Says something to the safety of the seat I just overlooked it.

And Bruce has been moved to 'in doubt ALP ahead', which makes a lot more sense...presumably the safe LIB gain was just a glitch.

And McEwen has been removed from the safe Coalition gains, too. So, seven (Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson) so far (plus Lyne and New England)...

Banks and LaTrobe both called, 'safe LIB gain'. So nine total, since Lindsay is still at likely: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Lindsay back to safe gain. 10 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, LaTrobe, Lindsay, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

Kennedy and Melbourne are both 'in doubt 3rd party ahead' right now...Denison and Fairfax, though, are safe...

Hindmarsh and Lingiari both at safe gain -- both were predicted, but still kind of amazing results. 12 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Robertson. Plus the two gains from independents.

And, heading back east to Sydney for a second, Reid is now a safe gain. So now Sydney has pretty much been entirely filled in (except Barton, that's still close; kind of amazing, it was thought of as reasonably safe ALP), since Greenway and Parramatta are rated 'safe ALP hold'. 13 total ALP --> coalition seats: Banks, Bass, Braddon, Corangamite, Deakin, Hindmarsh, Lindsay, Lingiari, Lyons, Page, Reid, Robertson.

And Reid seems to have been demoted to 'in doubt' from safe, so take it off that list; the number is back to 12.

[Platypus]

Lyons is coming back for Labor, but too little too late.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Labor looks like putting Palmer in Parliament. Good news being, the more seats Labor retains, the less they'll risk a DD on the Carbon Tax.

I'd obviously disagree with that ... it gives Tony far less room to risk, considering the usual historic results of what happens to parties that call DDs

[Vosem]

In addition to the Tassie numbers (2 LIB, 2 ALP, 1 PUP, 1 GRN), we have some serious Senate results from Queensland now -- 3 LNP, 2 ALP, 1 PUP. Those Labor preferences that were meant for the KAP never did show up; the KAP is out before the ALP surplus is distributed. (In fact, it never is; the last seat is going ALP). Total of 5 Coalition, 4 ALP, 2 PUP, 1 Green.

And in the imaginary NSW numbers, looks like One Nation has replaced the Australian Democrats; 3 ALP; 1 Green; 1 LDP; 1 One Nation. These are just for the lulz, of course.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

BTW - what did I say about PUP/KAP preferences being badly handled by pollsters?

[Platypus]

BTW - what did I say about PUP/KAP preferences being badly handled by pollsters?

Yes yes, well done

Mirabella down to 43.6% first preference. C'mon Cathy!