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For Trump, no. Zero chance.

For a Third Party candidate, unlikely at this point but not impossible. There's no chance I'd vote for RFK Jr. though.

Reminds me of Mike Bloomberg's campaign

The game is a go. 1802 will last until the end of June 2nd (Sunday). Midturn on Thursday (May 30th).

Military numbers will be up in the next 24 hours.

Is it very weird that this confessed to a literal murder just because police told him too. On top of compensation, he may need to spend some time in a mental hospital to address whatever caused him to act this way.

Torture messes with the mind, that's why no confession under duress is admissible in court.

By your logic, Galileo should also have been sent to a mental hospital because he espoused the views of the church under threat of torture.

To be fair, the Tories would have already written off the youth vote. It is a smart idea when they are down 20 points to take the hit of alienating that vote even more in order to win wavering elderly low-education voters who are considering Reform. They have to know who the target audience is.

It's not like one policy would ever have much of an impact or even that the Tories could change their image much with a lot of policies this late. So it's pretty pointless. It's also doesn't look like this one is thought through that well, they just went with a policy that in the abstract polls and focus groups well with their target vote. That doesn't mean it lands well in an election campaign with the desired impact.

RFK Jr. being up there would at least add something new to the mix. I can only imagine he'll come off as completely awful, probably even worse than the other two.

[The thing that would worry me if I was a Tory MP is that this was planned; they have know for a month or so they were going for July]

The obsession with Brand Rishi and the excitement a lot of centre-right commentators have over him (he can do an excel sheet!) has really ignored the fact he is a lousy campaigner; he was pretty terrible in the 2022 Leadership race; forgotten now but he made a big pious point of saying 'we can't afford tax cuts' and then pivoted to tax cuts when he realised he was losing. He also kept doing a weird thing about 'protecting our women'... and well we all see how he was during the locals.

The thing that would worry me if I was a Tory MP is that this was planned; they have know for a month or so they were going for July and they decided one of there last big announcements as a Government would be around gender guidance to schools!

Is that so? It was widely reported the week after the local elections that Number 10 actually made a point of telling the party any summer election was OFF and they could make plans accordingly.

Ha yeah! Was briefed to the Times that Sunaks mini circle basically created a ‘July election’ as plan A a month ago I think even before the locals which makes all this a lot more hilarious

[Kingdom of Spain:]

Kingdom of Spain:

Your Excellency,

Yet another extravagant ball is held on the Palace of Aranjuez, this time to celebrate ten years of power as Charles IV’s all-powerful minister, as well as Queen Maria Luisa’s closest friend – and/or lover, you’re not telling -. The friendship of His Catholic Majesties has done much for you, ranging from a litany of offices and titles all the way to the honorific of “Prince of the Peace” under which you’re now best known. You’re even married to the King’s cousin. And yet one goal eludes you: a crown of your own. You came very close when the joint Franco-Spanish invasion of Portugal almost overran the nation, but the prize eluded you due to geopolitical developments. Still, as the eminence grise for a multi-continental empire on the onset of peace in Europe, there is much to look for in life. So what will be the height of your ambition, Excellency? What can the world expect of Manuel Godoy?

For a few years now, Spain has tied her diplomatic fate to the French Republic. It has proved somewhat profitable, if troublesome in terms of disruptions caused by the indefatigable British. With the arrival of peace, many wonder about Spain’s place in Europe, and particularly in Italy. One of the apparent victories you’ve secured has been the establishment of a Kingdom of Etruria, in which the King’s daughter, Maria Luisa, serves as Queen Consort, and in which Spain is supposed to hold a share of influence. But a lack of clarity to the extent of French and Spanish influence in Etruria has led many to suspect the Italian kingdom is but a French puppet, for indeed it is only garrisoned by French troops. Others look to the Prince of Asturias and the Infanta Maria Isabella, the King’s remaining unmarried children, and see alliances to be made in Naples and/or elsewhere. How will you play your cards?

United States of America:

Mr. President,

It has been an intense first year in office, but the foundations of free and republican government seem as strong as ever. Domestically, Vice President Burr has been effectively emasculated while secretaries Gallatin (Treasury) and Madison (State) serve as your faithful lieutenants. Congress (with Democratic Republican majorities in both houses) is in the process of repealing the outrageous Midnight Judges appointments by the Federalists, though the Federalist-dominated Supreme Court is expected to have words on the matter sooner rather than later. One goal looms larger than the rest: erasing the enormous national debt, for which Gallatin intends to slash spending and do away with Hamilton’s taxes. What can the people expect of Mr. Jefferson this year?

Although your reluctance to engage in foreign affairs is more than well-known, there is one front in which you have been unwilling to budge: the barbaric acts of the Bey of Tripoli, Yusuf Karamanli. The Bey, a nominal Ottoman vassal who prides himself on his power and influence, not only allows piracy that pillages the American merchant fleet, he’s had the gall to demand crippling financial ransoms every year. Previous actions in concert with Sweden and Naples have thus far failed to stop him. Thus the question arises on how to stop this humiliation. “Hawk”-ish advisors would have you seek Congressional authorization to send the US Navy and do battle, even as Gallatin pressures to drastically decrease military spending. Should the Marines head to Tripoli, or you do have an alternate course of action?

Kingdom of Sweden:

Your Majesty,

Ten years after your father’s monstrous assassination by the power-hungry aristocracy, the Swedish autocracy endures. As a God-fearing autocrat and a known opponent to Jacobinism, many wonder what is to follow for Sweden after Amiens has opened up many doors in the realm of foreign policy. Fersen, the Marshal of the Realm – and Marie Antoinette’s friend and/or lover – would have you form and lead a counterrevolutionary league to counter republicanism at every turn. Others look for a fight with Denmark over Norway, or give threatening looks to Russia after their persistent attempts to swallow Finland. Still others, citing Sweden’s role in the Treaty of Westphalia and your domains in Swedish Pomerania, argue you have a role to play within the Holy Roman Empire and its ongoing reorganization. There is flexibility of action, but what will you use it for?

Kingdom of Norway-Denmark:

Your Royal Highness,

For eighteen years now you’ve held the regency over your insane father, who, in his early fifties, gives no sign of giving up the throne. But so be it, for you are used to the hardships of politics, having been forced to stage a coup to even get the regency. One year after Admiral Nelson engaged and defeated the Danish fleet for having the audacity to want free and uninterrupted trade with France, the question of alignments has risen yet again. Sweden looms as a threatening neighbour ever hungry for Norway, and there are strong voices at court wishing to seek a firm protector in Paris or St. Petersburg. Others still push for neutrality in hopes of avoiding another British raid, provided the Treaty of Amiens ensures the flow of trade the nation depends on. Will Denmark seek such an alignment? Or is the nation better protected through firm neutrality?

Kingdom of Naples:

Your Majesty,

As you step out of the carriage following a joyful sojourn in Vienna, you remind yourself once again that there is much to be done. The French have withdrawn from Naples, but you can feel their poisonous presence everywhere. Antoinette was your favourite sister, and you will never – ever! – forget nor forgive what was done to her. With the Bourbons back in power, and through your dominating influence on your equally reactionary husband King Ferdinand, Naples must be cleansed. Though last year’s treaty with France forced the crown to provide amnesty to thousands of political prisoners – Jacobin rabble really -, you know better than to give the heathens a chance. Your English chief minister, Sir John Acton, would support reviving the secret police and thoroughly cleansing the kingdom. Cardinal Ruffo, whose Sanfedisti recovered the throne in the first place, seems more open to clemency. What will it be?

Kingdom of Portugal:

Your Royal Highness,

The arrival of Amiens is, in a way, a welcomed development, enabling Portugal to finally resume trade with London after Paris forced you to close the ports. Yours has certainly been a difficult position to be in. The madness of your mother has forced you to take on an awkward regency, the French stole half of Guyana, and even though your wife Carlota Joaquina is daughter to the King of Spain, the Spaniards still tried to carve your nation up to give Godoy a throne. Thus you’re placed in the middle of a difficult, deadly dance, having to fend off the predatory Godoy and Bonaparte while your wife – whom the court itself mocks as “the Shrew of the Palace of Queluz” – seemingly plots for Madrid’s behalf. But it is not the first time you have been underestimated. Portugal has a pious, resolute and humble regent, and Brazil grows every day as a net producer of key goods. How will you handle this complex situation?

Kingdom of Sardinia:

Your Majesty,

It has been a tough six years of your reign. Inheriting the crown right as Bonaparte ravaged the fertile Piedmont, a subsequent occupation in 1798 forced you to flee to the island of Sardinia, an awkward situation that has lasted for three years now as you refuse to acknowledge the French occupation. General Joubert sits there as viceroy of a puppet Subalpine Republic, all while hopes that the Treaty of Amiens could secure your return to Turin failed to materialize. Sardinia, while a key strategic point in the Mediterranean that Paris and London hunger for, lacks resources compared to the wealthy Piedmont, and is filled with local grievances and resentments. A difficult decision lies ahead. Should you try to negotiate with Bonaparte the return of your ancestral lands, even at the cost of entering the French sphere of influence? Or would you rather bide your time and hope for the downfall of that Corsican ogre?

Electorate of Bavaria:

Your Highness,

The Electorate stands in an awkward position, persistently drawn into the Austrian and French squabbles. Two French invasions and a forceful Austrian occupation – the latter dragging you into the Austrian side at the disastrous Battle of Hohenlinden – have left the Electorate exhausted, though the tireless work of your all-powerful minister Count Montgelas and of yourself has made some headway in repairing the damage. Plainly, Bavaria seems forced to pick sides, even more now that the prospect of the reorganization of the Holy Roman Empire could mean compensation and expansion. Montgelas feels Vienna to be a more threatening predator and would rather jump to Bonaparte’s arms, but the choice lies within you. Will Bavaria align with France? With Austria? Or will it seek diplomatic autonomy?

Batavian Republic:

Ambassador,

You return home from the Amiens negotiations with decidedly mixed feelings. Britain has recognized the Republic, returned most of the colonies, and even spared the nation from having to pay compensation to the House of Orange (with France, Prussia and Britain footing the bill). But Ceylon is lost, the British are yet to withdraw troops from the Cape Colony, and French troops occupy the country still. And following a coup by Augereau last year, the government has become more autocratic as the twelve-member Staatsbewind (State Council) uneasily holds onto power. As the Republic’s most prominent - non-exiled - citizen, you have a responsibility to the Dutch people. Will you merely seek to wield influence as an advisor to the Council? Establish yourself in an official capacity? Or perhaps, seek a master or an ally to put you firmly in power? And how should the Republic handle the implementation of Amiens at such a delicate moment?

French Royalists:

Your Royal Highness,

Thirteen years of exile see you now reside in Holyrood Palace at Edinburgh, a guest of the British government with an annual stipend that gives you some freedom of movement. The state of the royalist cause after the Peace of Amiens appears to be dismal: the last emigré army dissolved in Bavaria last year; Louis XVIII was expelled from Russia by the late Tsar Paul and forced to live in Warsaw as an underfunded Prussian guest, and, for now, Bonaparte is firmly in power. But not all is lost. The indefatigable Cadoudal remains ever willing to spy and try to kill the usurper again; Pichegru and the Polignac brothers remain valuable advisors; and you personally have not only two sons - Louis has none -, one of them is married to Louis XVI’s hapless daughter. What follows? Should new plots be hatched? Or a new emigré army built under some foreign patron? Perhaps Louis XVIII could assisted into a new home? What is to be the road under which the Bourbons will return to their rightful throne?

[French Republic:]

French Republic:

Citizen General,

Two years in, even your enemies would concede that the Consulate has achieved far more than the Directory ever did, stabilising public finances, reaching a Concordat with the Vatican that opened up the churches again, and even putting up a partial amnesty for royalists, even though the bulk of the emigrés remain banished or are unwilling to return in solidarity. And yet, the burning question of your powers and term in office remains. Strictly speaking, you’re up for re-election only in 1809, but many feel even this is a sign of weakness against the monarchies of Europe. Not everybody agrees with a single solution. Your family and Talleyrand push for you to take up the crown, while Carnot, Lucien and Fouché stand against. Compromises are suggested, including taking up the First Consulship for life if need be. Where do you draw the line?

Amiens is signed, and peace with Britain is a reality. This undoubted triumph is, however, fraught with difficulties. For one, Britain is yet to fully comply with treaty provisions in Malta, Egypt, and the Dutch Cape Colony. For another, in the vacuum of an official commercial treaty many push you to enact aggressive protectionism to protect the nascent French industry from competition in this new context. The Helvetic Republic in Switzerland, from where you recently withdrew, is a hotbed of radicalism and instability and may yet collapse. The Holy Roman Empire is meant to be undergoing reorganisation, and the list goes on and on. How will you handle the implementation of Amiens? And how far dare you go regarding the questions that are still open?

The end to hostilities and the sudden opening of major sea lanes to France has brought up a series of important questions regarding the Republic’s colonial holdings, with Saint Domingue - and Louisiana - taking on particular relevance. Highly profitable before the Revolution and a slave revolt, Saint Domingue and the whole of Hispaniola is presently controlled by the former slave Toussaint Louverture. Louverture, who claims to be loyal to France, has recently insulted you by enacting a Constitution without your approval that abolishes slavery and makes him Governor-General for life.  An expedition under your brother-in-law, General Leclerc, is ready to sail in response, but there’s disagreement in how to handle Saint Domingue, with some voices going as far as to push for the return of slavery so the colony becomes highly profitable once again. What to do?

United Kingdom:

Your Majesty,

As Lord Cornwallis returns to London upon signing the Treaty of Amiens, London seems to breathe a sigh of relief. Peace, at least today, seems to be popular with a public tired of a decade of war with the French Republic, and a respite to a tired, exhausted economy. For now, implementation requires that Britain evacuate Malta (to the Knights of St. John), Egypt (to nominal Ottoman control) and the Cape Colony (to the Batavian Republic), but the pro-war party of William Pitt clamour that such strategic spots, Malta in particular, cannot be relinquished. Others are willing to risk evacuating these territories, but would much rather see Bonaparte make concessions elsewhere, be it Italy, Switzerland or in the Netherlands. Prime Minister Addington, though technically responsible for the treaty, defers to you. How should Britain stand on the matter?

With the arrival of peace, there’s a sense that Parliament warrants dissolution for a General Election, even though it could be technically continue until 1803. Addington expects his Tory government to secure an easy landslide, with only a handful of Pitt’s pro-war Tories and Charles James Fox’s Whigs to stand as an opposition. There’s a case for Addington to be given free reign as his victory would shut out men you personally dislike from power for a while, but there’s a catch: unexpected developments could bolster Fox, whose radical and pro-French nature you detest; or the collapse of Amiens could see a revival of fortunes for Pitt, whom you sacked as Prime Minister after he outrageously tried to remove current restrictions on Catholics (so called “emancipation”) as part of the union between Britain and Ireland. Should Addington be allowed to call for an election?

Slowly but surely, British power through the East India Company (EIC) has built a veritable empire across India, including zones under direct control and large domains under friendly vassal princes. Lord Mornington, the EIC-appointed Governor of British India, reports on the affairs of the largest and still independent Indian domain: the Maratha Confederacy.  Yashwantrao Holkar, a young and anti-British Maharaja, prepares to march against his rivals: the equally anti-British Maharaja Daulat Rao; and the nominal ruler of the Confederacy, the deceitful Baji Rao II. Though long distances ensure that the EIC essentially acts will full autonomy – and impunity -, Mornington requests instructions. How do you want Indian affairs handled? Should Britain let the Confederacy rip itself apart before intervening? Or should it intervene before a anti-British force consolidates?

Hapsburg Monarchy:

Your Imperial Majesty,

For ten years Austria has been at the heart of the struggle against the French Revolutionaries, but the fight has come, if not to a definitive end, at least to a substantial pause. Though the Hapsburg Dynasty has avoided the worst, steady defeats have led to the loss of the Austrian Netherlands, the left bank of the Rhine, and much of Northern Italy; with only Venice to show for as a recent compensation. The nation is militarily beaten, but under no circumstances out of the game: a strong secret police under Count von Perger exerts strong censorship and vast control over your subjects. And the bureaucracy, while still infected by the “enlightened despotism” of your uncle Joseph, seems opportunistic enough to shift if pushed towards a different direction, and vast enough to – slowly – implement your designs. But where is the monarchy headed towards?

Despite your attachment to the Imperial Crown, the Holy Roman Empire lays moribund and in mortal danger, with an unsolved issue creating a concerning problem. Although the Treaty of Luneville pledged that the hereditary Princes who lost territories on the left bank of the Rhine to France (Bavaria, Württemberg, Baden and others) would be compensated, a goal implied to be achieved through the destruction of city states, small principalities and most of the ecclesiastical princes (“secularization”), no action was taken. Now Vienna faces a moral quandary over the reorganization of the HRE, facing intense interest by these princes and others (Russia, Prussia, perhaps even Sweden) that hunger for lands. Should the whole process of reorganization of the Empire be allowed through to earn goodwill and buy time? Should Vienna try to split the vultures apart by siding with a specific court? Or should Britain be sought for assistance?

Kingdom of Prussia:

Your Majesty,

Five years in, it must be said you’ve reached success in separating yourself from your father’s more dissolute legacy, and even in asserting your rule despite criticism of inconsistency. The court has recovered much moral legitimacy aided by the popular – if domineering – Queen Louise, and in staying away from the Coalition Wars since 1795 Prussia has been able to focus on swallowing its allocated part of Poland, an issue in need of further feedback. Though seemingly causing much resentment with the local population, the Prussian nobility is adamant that the new provinces be thoroughly Germanized, including if need be the banning of the Polish language to ensure Berlin can hold onto these vast domains in the long term. On this issue and others, it can be said that the future of your reign is very much up to you, but what is it that you desire? 

Recently diplomatic alignment has led Berlin to work alongside Paris in matters such as a short-lived occupation of British Hanover, but the issue of Prussia’s foreign policy alignment remains very much open. So much so, that at Louise’s insistence Louis XVIII and his family have been granted refuge after their expulsion from Russia by Tsar Paul last year, currently residing as guests in Warsaw. Perhaps the biggest test of Prussia’s alignment will be the planned reorganization of the Holy Roman Empire. Having lost some territory on the left bank of the Rhine, Prussia is entitled to compensation. But how best to go about it? Working with Austria to block other people’s gains in return for Imperial support? Work alongside the Tsar while also empowering Baden and Württemberg? Seek out Bavaria in an anti-Hapsburg axis of sort? Or directly deal with Bonaparte?

Russian Empire:

Your Imperial Majesty,

It is less than a year after the regrettable demise of your father Paul, and you’ve done your best to tread carefully, remaining an enigma not just to much of the nation, but to the court itself. An idealist still, you’d like to reform Russia without having to show the subservience to Europe that reformers are often saddled with, but there’s a serious question of how far can go you if ever confronted by the Orthodox Church, the nobles, or even the army. While your closest friends – the Privy Committee – pressure for the establishment of actual Ministries to replace the inefficient government departments (“Collegium”), the conservative elements target the reformer and liberal Alexander Radishchev, who was tasked to reform the law; and all but demand you remove your protection over him. How far dare you go, Majesty? Or do you perhaps intend to change tact altogether and embrace the reaction for the sake of stability?

The arrival of peace is greatly welcomed in St. Petersburg and the court, a brief and enjoyable respite that will, sadly, soon be followed by renewed questions about the future. It is no secret that British trade reigns supreme in the city and greatly influences the high aristocracy, pushing them to seek friendship in London. But it is also clear that the reforming aristocrats and burghers admire France and Bonaparte himself, professing at least some ideological sympathy that leads them to advocate for Russia to seek friendship in Paris. This matter may yet be tested in the planned reorganization of the Holy Roman Empire, with your familial ties to Baden and Württemberg leading your kin to pressure you to isolate Austria and impose a settlement that would see these principalities greatly expanded. Will you meddle in the HRE? And how will you handle Britain and France, Majesty?

Ottoman Empire:

My Lord Emperor,

The lack of strong government in Istanbul in previous decades has gradually allowed many of the Empire’s provinces to fall under chaos, anarchy and warlordism, a weakness that foreign powers – including the upstart Bonaparte in Egypt – have tried to exploit for themselves. The list this year is almost endless: the Bey of Tripoli turns a blind eye to piracy and outrages the Christian World; the Janissaries in Serbia have just murdered your progressive Vizier and established a four-man Dahije; the unruly Osman Pazvantoglu raids and burns Wallachia while serving as a Pasha; the returning Mamluks battle your officers in Egypt for power while the British prepare to leave; and the Albanian Ali Pasha, who keeps the Greeks at bay by stepping on their throats, freely negotiates with foreign powers. Any one of these threats could force a war or a foreign intervention, and yet you must start somewhere if you are to restore authority. Where will you first seek to restore order?

There may be peace in Europe, but the Empire is anything but peaceful. Aside from the uprisings warranting your attention, political tension has risen after your past attempts to enact ambitious military reform. Even as the Nizam-i Cedid policies have yielded a small, modernized corps, the Janissaries firmly oppose reform and any loss of privileges, ceaselessly boycotting your edicts and making it all but clear that the expansion of the modernized corps will not go unanswered. To make matters more awkward, the cost of such reforms further strains the treasure, leading ministers to claim that it is either bureaucratic centralization or military reform, but not both. And yet having this independent force could be what saves the Empire from the Janissary decadence. What to do, my lord?

It’s a gift to Labour cos it’s something to threaten under-25 hippies flirting with the Greens over Gaza with. “Vote Green, you get Tory and conscription”.

It's fairly seat dependent.