Brazil Election - 5 October 2014

[buritobr]

Actually it doesn't surprise me because the state PSDB has completely thrown Neves under the bus. After Serra's last big loss (2012), Alckmin has completely taken over PSDB's leadership in São Paulo. As I said before, his goal now is sealing his reelection and setting up his 2018 presidential run. Just yesterday Alckmin was running ads with Marina's running mate endorsing him. Alckmin won't even be shy about endorsing a Marina Silva-Geraldo Alckmin vote, just like many PSDB cells in Minas Gerais ran the absurd "Lula-Aécio" double back in 2006, something that really hurt Alckmin's presidential campaign that year.

Tactical vote is also a relevant factor. With new polls showing Marina gaining, many wealthier and middle-class voters that would normally vote PSDB for president will vote Marina-Alckmin. For about 30% of São Paulo, taking the PT out of the federal government is more important than electing someone from the PSDB.

Finally, many on the PSDB's national committee also believe now that endorsing Marina in a runoff and being part of an eventual Marina Silva government coalition wouldn't be that bad. In fact, even leading figures like FHC seem to flirt with this idea. Not to mention that in a runoff Marina could be very useful for the PSDB if she also endorses some government candidates. The PSDB is well placed in some important states. They have a strong chance of retaining São Paulo, Paraná, Goiás and Pará, could still rebound in Minas Gerais, and could perhaps bring new states into play, as Paraíba and Santa Catarina. Also, PSDB allies are leading in important places, such as Bahia and Rio Grande do Sul. All in, there's a growing consensus that it would be better to spend resources on competitive state races, and that helping Marina Silva to (finally) defeat their nemesis wouldn't be such a bad outcome. 2016 and 2018 are just around the corner and Marina has promised she won't run for reelection if elected

It is really a mistery how Marina's cabinet would look like. PSDB will be in her cabinet. Maybe, some members of the PT too.
Marina Silva is different of other PT members who left the party. Many of them became Strong enemies of PT, in the left and in the right. Heloísa Helena, Babá, Luciana Genro and Plínio Sampaio joined the leftist PSOL and according to them, the PT looks like the conservative parties, all the parties are bad and only PSOL is good. Fernando Gabeira and Soninha Francine became allies of the PSDB and they say that the PT is corrupt.
These stories didn't happen with Marina Silva. She doesn't consider PT an enemy. She considers only Dilma Roussef an enemy. And Dilma Roussef is not relevant in the history of PT. She joined the PT only in 2001. Marina Silva kept ties with some PT members.
When she left the Ministry of Environment in 2008, she didn't say that Lula's administration was bad. She recognized the sucess of Lula in reducing the poverty, but showed disagreement with Lula's plan to build ungreen hidroelectric power plants in the Amazon Forest. This plan had Dilma Roussef as the main supporter.
In 2012, Marina Silva backed some PT candidates in the municipal elections. She supported Marcio Pochmann in the election for mayor of Campinas.
Of course, in the end of 2013, when she decided to be the running mate of Eduardo Campos, and since August 13th 2014, when she became the candidate, Marina Silva and PT are opponents. Some PT supporters made strong attacks. Some of them were a little stupid. Marina Silva could grow in these last tem days, after receiving attacks from PT and PSDB. Backlash.
Despite the attacks, I think Marina Silva would invite some PT politicians for her cabinet. I don't know if the "Executiva Nacional" from PT would accept.

[jaichind]

Aug. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Candidate Marina Silva opened a lead of 10 percentage points in a runoff vote over President Dilma Rousseff after Brazil’s economy dipped into recession, according to a Datafolha poll.
Silva has 50 percent of voter support in an Oct. 26 second round vote against the incumbent, who has 40 percent, according to the Aug. 28-29 poll published last night. The former environment minister had an advantage of four percentage points over Rousseff in the previous survey conducted Aug. 14-15, which fell within the plus or minus two percentage point margin of error of the surveys.
Silva, who entered the race Aug. 20, is capitalizing on voter discontent with a shrinking economy and above-target inflation. Yesterday she pledged to slow consumer price increases by giving the central bank formal autonomy and moderating the pace of fiscal spending. Rousseff says her administration has protected workers with rising salaries and near-record low jobless rates.
“The first two, three weeks of the campaign are critical for Marina,” Christopher Garman, deputy head of research at political consulting company Eurasia Group, said by phone. “Voter preference are still in flux. But in the first week she hit a home run.”
The Ibovespa stock exchange index rose 4.9 percent this week as polls also published by Ibope and MDA showed Silva leading the race in the second round.
First Round
Silva and Rousseff would tie in the first round on Oct. 5 with 34 percent of the vote each, followed by Senator Aecio Neves with 15 percent, according to Datafolha, which surveyed 2,874 people. Brazil holds a runoff if the lead candidate fails to garner more votes than all others put together.
Gross domestic product fell 0.6 percent in the second quarter over the previous three months, after contracting a revised 0.2 percent in the first quarter, according to date released yesterday by the national statistics agency. It’s the first time Brazil’s economy contracted for two straight quarters since the aftermath of the global financial crisis in 2008.
Silva became the candidate for the Brazilian Socialist Party when former Pernambuco Governor Eduardo Campos was killed in an Aug. 13 plane crash.
“Marina is an extremely competitive candidate,” Andre Cesar, director at public policy and business strategy consulting company Prospectiva, said by phone. “It is still too soon to say she is the favorite given there is still a month of campaigning.”
Rousseff’s and Neve’s allies will counter-react to Silva’s surge in polls, Garman said. They will say Silva is a “wild card” that can’t be trusted and is unprepared to lead.

[buritobr]

Yesterday, Marina Silva released her government program. It is a social liberal and fiscal conservative one (in Brazil, we say "liberal" to mean "fiscal conservative").

Marina's program supports gay marriage and direct democracy mechanisms. It is easier for her to support gay marriage because, unlike Dilma and Aécio, she has already a reputation of being very religious. Probably, the pentecostal evangelicals will still vote for her.

Her program supports increasing autonomy to the Central Bank, increasing the share of the states and municipalities in the tax revenue and decrease the share of the federal government.

In the first version of the program, she supported the increase of the use of nuclear energy because it is a cleaner source than hidroelectric, gas and coal. But in the evening, the topic concerning nuclear energy was removed from the program.

[Paleobrazilian]

Actually it doesn't surprise me because the state PSDB has completely thrown Neves under the bus. After Serra's last big loss (2012), Alckmin has completely taken over PSDB's leadership in São Paulo. As I said before, his goal now is sealing his reelection and setting up his 2018 presidential run. Just yesterday Alckmin was running ads with Marina's running mate endorsing him. Alckmin won't even be shy about endorsing a Marina Silva-Geraldo Alckmin vote, just like many PSDB cells in Minas Gerais ran the absurd "Lula-Aécio" double back in 2006, something that really hurt Alckmin's presidential campaign that year.

Tactical vote is also a relevant factor. With new polls showing Marina gaining, many wealthier and middle-class voters that would normally vote PSDB for president will vote Marina-Alckmin. For about 30% of São Paulo, taking the PT out of the federal government is more important than electing someone from the PSDB.

Finally, many on the PSDB's national committee also believe now that endorsing Marina in a runoff and being part of an eventual Marina Silva government coalition wouldn't be that bad. In fact, even leading figures like FHC seem to flirt with this idea. Not to mention that in a runoff Marina could be very useful for the PSDB if she also endorses some government candidates. The PSDB is well placed in some important states. They have a strong chance of retaining São Paulo, Paraná, Goiás and Pará, could still rebound in Minas Gerais, and could perhaps bring new states into play, as Paraíba and Santa Catarina. Also, PSDB allies are leading in important places, such as Bahia and Rio Grande do Sul. All in, there's a growing consensus that it would be better to spend resources on competitive state races, and that helping Marina Silva to (finally) defeat their nemesis wouldn't be such a bad outcome. 2016 and 2018 are just around the corner and Marina has promised she won't run for reelection if elected

It is really a mistery how Marina's cabinet would look like. PSDB will be in her cabinet. Maybe, some members of the PT too.
Marina Silva is different of other PT members who left the party. Many of them became Strong enemies of PT, in the left and in the right. Heloísa Helena, Babá, Luciana Genro and Plínio Sampaio joined the leftist PSOL and according to them, the PT looks like the conservative parties, all the parties are bad and only PSOL is good. Fernando Gabeira and Soninha Francine became allies of the PSDB and they say that the PT is corrupt.
These stories didn't happen with Marina Silva. She doesn't consider PT an enemy. She considers only Dilma Roussef an enemy. And Dilma Roussef is not relevant in the history of PT. She joined the PT only in 2001. Marina Silva kept ties with some PT members.
When she left the Ministry of Environment in 2008, she didn't say that Lula's administration was bad. She recognized the sucess of Lula in reducing the poverty, but showed disagreement with Lula's plan to build ungreen hidroelectric power plants in the Amazon Forest. This plan had Dilma Roussef as the main supporter.
In 2012, Marina Silva backed some PT candidates in the municipal elections. She supported Marcio Pochmann in the election for mayor of Campinas.
Of course, in the end of 2013, when she decided to be the running mate of Eduardo Campos, and since August 13th 2014, when she became the candidate, Marina Silva and PT are opponents. Some PT supporters made strong attacks. Some of them were a little stupid. Marina Silva could grow in these last tem days, after receiving attacks from PT and PSDB. Backlash.
Despite the attacks, I think Marina Silva would invite some PT politicians for her cabinet. I don't know if the "Executiva Nacional" from PT would accept.

According to rumors, if Marina wins, PT will move to the opposition. PSDB is expected to join Marina right after the election, if she wins.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Yesterday, Marina Silva released her government program. It is a social liberal and fiscal conservative one (in Brazil, we say "liberal" to mean "fiscal conservative").

Marina's program supports gay marriage and direct democracy mechanisms. It is easier for her to support gay marriage because, unlike Dilma and Aécio, she has already a reputation of being very religious. Probably, the pentecostal evangelicals will still vote for her.

Her program supports increasing autonomy to the Central Bank, increasing the share of the states and municipalities in the tax revenue and decrease the share of the federal government.

In the first version of the program, she supported the increase of the use of nuclear energy because it is a cleaner source than hidroelectric, gas and coal. But in the evening, the topic concerning nuclear energy was removed from the program.

I thought her reputation was basically as the exact opposite (fiscal liberal, social conservative)?

[Famous Mortimer]

She has now flip flopped and said she was never for gay marriage, only civil unions, although this is still a fairly liberal position for Brazil.

As to whether she's an economic leftist, social conservative or an economic rightist, social liberal, it seems to me you could make an argument either way.

She could be on the economic left because she used to be a member of the Workers' Party and she has avoided explicit alliances with the right. She could be an economic conservative but her platform is vaguely rightist (although mostly just vague).

She could be a social conservative because she's an evangelical. She could be a social liberal because she's for civil unions.

Basically, it's not clear what she stands for and that's why I wouldn't support her if I was a Brazilian. If he does get into office, she'll probably be fine but I dislike anyone who knowingly tries to mislead people to get elected (and she's for sure misleading at least half of the people who are going to vote for her).

[Paleobrazilian]

Right after releasing its latest numbers, Datafolha has already announced a new national poll, that will probably be released Wednesday. Important states will be polled as well.

Oh, and Ibope will also release its newest national numbers this week, probably Wednesday too.

Many believe those new numbers may show Marina already in the high 30s, Dilma stalling, and Neves falling further, probably in the low 10s.

[buritobr]

She has now flip flopped and said she was never for gay marriage, only civil unions, although this is still a fairly liberal position for Brazil.

As to whether she's an economic leftist, social conservative or an economic rightist, social liberal, it seems to me you could make an argument either way.

She could be on the economic left because she used to be a member of the Workers' Party and she has avoided explicit alliances with the right. She could be an economic conservative but her platform is vaguely rightist (although mostly just vague).

She could be a social conservative because she's an evangelical. She could be a social liberal because she's for civil unions.

Basically, it's not clear what she stands for and that's why I wouldn't support her if I was a Brazilian. If he does get into office, she'll probably be fine but I dislike anyone who knowingly tries to mislead people to get elected (and she's for sure misleading at least half of the people who are going to vote for her).

Well, from the beggining of her political career until 2008, when she resigned the Ministry of Environment, her platform was the defense of the environment and the Brazilian natives and workers in the Amazon Forest.
After that, since she announced to run for president in 2010, she became a flip flop. She is very religious and she has a petencostal supporting base, but since many educated young people care on environment, a social liberal platform could atract this audience. But this platform need to be moderate liberal, in order to not alienate the petencostal base.
In Brazil, many poor people are leftist on economic issues and rightist on social issues, and many upper middle class people are rightist on economic issues and leftist on social issues.
In 2014, Marina Silva though that being social liberal and fiscal conservative would take upper middle class votes from Aécio Neves. So, she released a program which included gay marriage. But then, Reverend Silas Malafaia, who has strong influence on many pentecostals wrote four tweets condemning gay marriage. The campaign considered that the petencostals she would loose outnumber the educated middle class young people she could win, and then, she went an step back. Supporting only same-sex civil union is not important, because this kind of union already exists in Brazil, since 2011. It was not a law, but a decision from the Supreme Court.
Only the leftist candidate Luciana Genro and the green candidate Eduardo Jorge have a clear social liberal platform: they support gay marriage, legalization of abortion, legalization of marijuana, anti-homophobia education at schools and abolition of the Military Police. But both candidates are not running to win.
Marina Silva never opposed aliances. When she was elected for the Senate for the first time in 1994, she was backed by the PSDB.


I think that if there is one American politician who can be compared to Marina Silva, he is Ross Perot. Both do not fit very well in the left-right scale. Both ran for president having supporters on the left of the most leftist major party and on the right of the most rightist major party. That's why I though that she would perform worse in the second time...

[Paleobrazilian]

One of Neves's most important campaign coordinators, Sen. José Agripino (DEM-RN), said today Neves' coalition will endorse Marina in a runoff to avoid "the biggest danger". Neves' HQ has basically thrown the towel and is just working to avoid losing donors and hurting PSDB's viability in 2018 and beyond.

In fact, Aecio is now expected to focus on electing Pimenta da Veiga, PSDB's candidate to the Government of Minas Gerais. National resources will be rerouted to statewide runs. The PSDB could still elected plenty of governors, as I said before, and they're also well placed to have the third largest bench in the Chamber and in the Senate as well. That would make the PSDB a crucial member of Marina's government, with important cabinet posts, and with important positions in both Congress houses - perhaps even the presidency of one of them.

[Paleobrazilian]

IBOPE numbers for São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. If those numbers are confirmed by the national ones tomorrow, Marina could really start to flirt with a 1st round win.

[Paleobrazilian]

New IBOPE numbers are out. Dilma seems to gain steam with undecideds, Marina increases 4%, most of them from Aécio probably. The very low number of undecideds (5%) indicates we're now close to stability.



Curiously, there's good news here for everyone. For Marina, it shows she's still ahead in a head to head with Dilma, with very few undecideds (6%), so Dilma would have to swing votes from Marina to defeat her in a runoff. For Dilma, her approval ratings have improved, and that may swing undecideds and even some Marina votes to her. For Aécio (and his party), it shows he still has a floor around 15%, making him still a relevant factor through this cycle.

[Paleobrazilian]

New Datafolha numbers confirm the trends shown by IBOPE. This Datafolha poll had over 10000 voters polled, making this a very reliable poll.

[Niemeyerite]

I'm voting for Eduardo Jorge in the 1st round, and undecided in the 2nd, but definitely lealing Dilma after Marina changed her manifiesto to please Silas Malafaia... But, to be honest, I think it's better for the PT to lose now to Marina Silva than to lose in 2018 against some crook candidate from the right.

[Paleobrazilian]

A huge corruption scandal in Petrobras has started to leak yesterday. It implicates three governors (including Eduardo Campos), a few ministers and many important legislators. Some PT leaders already believe the scandal will have big political consequences and could seriously damage the party.

[buritobr]

Well, well, well...

The "surprise of september" is not a surprise anymore. There is a "big scandal" in every month of september in every even numbered year.
The "dossiê dos aloprados 1.0" didn't work in the election of 2006. The "dossiê dos aloprados 2.0" and "Erenice" didn't work in the election of 2010.

Dilma Roussef can loose the election because of the weak economy. But, probably, this scandal will not hurt her. The bribes in Petrobrás under the diretor Paulo Roberto Costa took place between 2004 and 2012. Dilma Roussef fired Paulo Roberto Costa in 2012.

[Famous Mortimer]

So what is the deal with gay marriage in Brazil? According to Wikipedia it's already legal.

[buritobr]

There is no gay marriage in Brazil. There is civil union right recognized by the Supreme Court in 2011.
The gay activists want the approval of the gay marriage. If it is not possible, they want at least that the civil union to be recognized by law and not only by a decision of the Supreme Court.

Only small candidates like Luciana Genro and Eduardo Jorge support gay marriage. Not only Marina Silva, but also Dilma Roussef and Aécio Neves do not support gay marriage. The gay activists became angry with Marina Silva because she removed gay marriage from her program after the request of Reverend Silas Mafaia, in order to have his endorsement during the campaign. And of course, they hate a candidate backed by a religious who is not only against gay marriage but also consider homossexuality a "bad behavior".

[Paleobrazilian]

Well, well, well...

The "surprise of september" is not a surprise anymore. There is a "big scandal" in every month of september in every even numbered year.
The "dossiê dos aloprados 1.0" didn't work in the election of 2006. The "dossiê dos aloprados 2.0" and "Erenice" didn't work in the election of 2010.

Dilma Roussef can loose the election because of the weak economy. But, probably, this scandal will not hurt her. The bribes in Petrobrás under the diretor Paulo Roberto Costa took place between 2004 and 2012. Dilma Roussef fired Paulo Roberto Costa in 2012.

There are a few differences between those scandals you mentioned and this one that's brewing. First, we still don't know everything the whistleblower has told and what he still has to tell (because it's believed he's still telling what he knows to the prosecutors). But what he has told by now is already way more damaging than any other scandal since 2005, a corruption scandal that implicates 3 governors, 2 cabinet members, the President of the Senate, the President of the Chamber, congressmen and the PT's treasurer. If more info is uncovered this week, this may well change fortunes for many. Plus, it's not like this will affect the national race only, this could have ramifications on plenty state races. Finally, remember those scandals you mentioned involved no taxpayers' money, this time about 1,2 billion reais (500 million dollars) supposedly disappeared from Petrobras. It'll depend a lot on what we learn the next week, but this has the potential to change the game, IMO.

[Paleobrazilian]

There is no gay marriage in Brazil. There is civil union right recognized by the Supreme Court in 2011.
The gay activists want the approval of the gay marriage. If it is not possible, they want at least that the civil union to be recognized by law and not only by a decision of the Supreme Court.

Only small candidates like Luciana Genro and Eduardo Jorge support gay marriage. Not only Marina Silva, but also Dilma Roussef and Aécio Neves do not support gay marriage. The gay activists became angry with Marina Silva because she removed gay marriage from her program after the request of Reverend Silas Mafaia, in order to have his endorsement during the campaign. And of course, they hate a candidate backed by a religious who is not only against gay marriage but also consider homossexuality a "bad behavior".

Actually according to a regulation issued by the CNJ, register offices are now obliged to celebrate gay marriages. There are some questions about the constitutionality of the regulation, but gay marriage is already a de facto reality in Brazil.

[buritobr]

Two important state polls, Ibope, September 6th-8th

State of São Paulo (22% of the Brazilian population)

President
Marina Silva (PSB) 38%
Dilma Roussef (PT) 25%
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 15%
(one weak ago: Marina 39%, Dilma 23%, Aécio 17%)

Governor
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) 48%
Paulo Skaf (PMDB) 18%
Alexandre Padilha (PT) 8%

Senator
José Serra (PSDB) 33%
Eduardo Suplicy (PT) 27%
Gilberto Kassab (PSD) 7%


State of Rio de Janeiro (8% of the Brazilian population)

President
Dilma Roussef (PT) 37%
Marina Silva (PSB) 34%
Aécio Neves (PSDB) 9%
(one weak ago: Marina 38%, Dilma 32%, Aécio 11%)

Governor
Anthony Garotinho (PR) 26%
Luís Fernando Pezão (PMDB) 25%
Marcelo Crivella (PRB) 17%
Lindberg Farias (PT) 9%

Senator
Romário (PSB) 44%
César Maia (DEM) 21%


As we can see, Dilma Roussef recovered in the first and in the third most populated state in Brazil. It shows that she will perform better in the next national polls.
However, the PT is not doing well in the gubernatorial elections.

[Paleobrazilian]

Even after all attacks and negative ads, Marina's position is basically unchanged according to Datafolha. Dilma pulled a bit closer in a runoff but the oscillation was inside the margin of error. As I said before, we're extremely close to stability. I could see Aecio bleeding a bit further (but now more unlikely as Marina is stabilized and there's no real possibility of a 1st round win) and perhaps the Petrobras scandal could hurt Dilma a bit (we should see if that happens next week).

Usually big oscillations in campaigns here in Brazil only happen when TV ads start (when people realize an election is coming) and about one week to go until the election (when the undecideds are forced to decide).

[Sec. of State Superique]

Superique Analisys:

I personally hate Ibope's poll, I think they are not as trustable as Datafolha. They poll 8.000 less people than its main competitor and it usually makes more mistakes than the later. However, it's my duty to show the most Recent Ibope Poll:

PT's Strategy and Rejection (Datafolha and Ibope still show Marina with the lowest rejection)

The polls may come as good news for President Dilma but PT's strategy may backfire. Although Marina's rejection has risen from 11% on the 8th of August to 18% on the 10th of September, she is not even on her years highest (since on the April 6th she scored 21%) and she has one of the lowest number from all the candidates while Ms. Dilma has 33% (According to Datafolha, in that case). According to Ibope's polls, all candidates rejection ratings are much higher than Datafolha's one and despite all that, Marina is 16% behind Dilma.

Dilma and Aécio:

The President's campaign is using populist methods to use against Marina saying she represents the Banking System and that she is financed by Itaú, moreover they are trying to portrait the PSB's candidate as an inexperiente leader that won't work in Brazil's political environment and are comparing her to Collor and Jânio Quadros.

Aécio is going negative as well but using a different strategy. He is saying to the Brazilian People that he is the "Safe Alternative of Change" and trying to put Marina close to Dilma. This might explain why Marina has fallen 3% in the second round since her probable ally is not cooperating a lot with her. Something that worries some close partners of Marina is that Aécio is saying that if he looses this election, he will be in the oposition. His allies in the oposition, however, are not really following the same line: although not being official movements, "Geraldina" (Geraldo Alckmin+Marina) and "Marimar" (Marina + Marconi Perillo) are emerging respectively in the states of São Paulo and Goiás which worries a lot a Aéco and which are extremely importante for Marina if she wants to be in the second round and win the Presidency.

The Media and Marina:

Although some Brazilian leftist bloggers are trying to say that Veja is making Marina a victim in order to help her. I would say that this was just an unusual cover that is trying to show Dilma as a bad girl. Anyone that reads the article itself can see that they are not going nice with Marina.

Nonetheless, I might say that Marina has been a very strong candidate and very resilient to all the negative pressure on her. Folha de São Paulo has been a staunch enemy of her (Making publications that she is afraid of planes and cried due to PT attacks), leftist magazine Carta Capital is trying to portrait her as the Neoliberal Queen and rightist magazine Veja, sometimes, is also going negative but make an akward move yesterday.

The election is going to be seriously close but it will be a huge challenge for Dilma in the second round when Marina will have the same television time than her. Now, we are watching an unbalanced war, where Dilma has 10 minutes of Electoral Program and Marina has just 2 minutes, while Aécio has 4. The fight will be extremely challenging but I hope that we can see PT getting out of the Planalto in 2015.

[Sec. of State Superique]

The gay activists became angry with Marina Silva because she removed gay marriage from her program after the request of Reverend Silas Mafaia, in order to have his endorsement during the campaign. And of course, they hate a candidate backed by a religious who is not only against gay marriage but also consider homossexuality a "bad behavior".

This one of the biggest lies that has emerged in Brazil. Marina has changed her Governmental Program because that was not her personal belief. Anyone that has been following Marina's speeches, discussions and interviews will see that she NEVER endorsed gay marriage. She has been sometimes a little bit dubious, but her official position is that supports the Civil Union. In some sense, she is supporting Gay Marriage indirectly since the Judiciary System has granted Civil Union the same benefits of a Marriage. Unfortunately, there a bunch of radicals in the LGBT movement that are not capable of reading Marina's program, it offers support for Civil Union, it offers support for developing a law that fights homophobia and it is supportive of measures that make easier adoptions for gay couples. Regarding to Malafaia, despite of all the changes, he even mentioned that the words' essence were the same.

What appeals me the most is that leftist in Brazil are condemning Marina because she is a flip floper while Lula and Dilma are the best on doing this. Dilma was a proud support of legalizing abortion and now she says that she is not. Lula has made a 180o Change since 1989. During 2010, somedays before the 1st Round Election, Dilma's campaign changed her whole Governmental Program to a list of 13 points and not a single discussion has arisen from leftists in Brazils.

[buritobr]

Well, it is not easy to say who is better, Ibope or Datafolha.

Ibope interviews 1200 people at their homes (sometimes, this institute interviews 2000 people). Datafolha interviews 5300 people on the streets (sometimes, this institute interviews 10000 people). A bigger sample is a little bit more precise. But just a little. Professors of Statistics say that when a sample is big enough, it doesn't get much better if it gets bigger. Of course, a 100 people sample would be a very bad one, but 1200 is not.
Datafolha has a bigger sample, but the probability of having a biased sample when the people are interviewed on the streets and not in their homes is bigger.
In 2010, both Ibope and Datafolha predicted in the first round eve that Dilma would have 50% of the valid votes, and actually, she had 46,5%.

It is possible to ready a little bit more about these two polls

Metodology of Ibope: http://pesqele.tse.jus.br/pesqele/publico/pesquisa/Pesquisa/visualizacaoPublica.action?id=25324

Metodology of Datafolha: http://pesqele.tse.jus.br/pesqele/publico/pesquisa/Pesquisa/visualizacaoPublica.action?id=25305

[buritobr]

Concerning the criticism on Marina Silva, I agree with this Carta Capital article

http://www.cartacapital.com.br/politica/vamos-elevar-o-nivel-da-discussao-6749.html