Iran Halted Nuclear Weapons Program in 2003, US Intelligence Agencies Find

[The Duke]

First, these are the same guys who in 2002 said Iraq was a month from having an atomic bomb and that Iraq was rapidly expanding their biological and chemcial weapons programs.  The NIE has a very poor track record.

Second, two years ago the NIE published a totally contradictyory claim and said that with a high degree of certainty, Iran was pursuing a nuclear bomb.  The NIE says it was totally wrong then but is totally right now, trust us.  The NIE report flatly contradicts past NIE reports.

Third, the NIE report is also contradcited by the IAEA and Israeli intelligence, two organizations known to have superior information and better analysts than US intelligence.  The Israelis say that Iran continues its weapons program unabated and the IAEA says Iran has enough working centrifuges to produce a bomb within 18 months.  The NIE's conclusions are contradictory to the conclusions of more reputable intelligence organizations.

The NIE claims Iran has stopped its military program, but not its civilian program, then uses a definition of "civilian" and "military" that is totally incoherent.  For example, Iran continues enrichng uranium, and the NIE admits this, but the NIE classifies uranium enrichment as a purely civilian use.  Uranium enrichment is obvioulsy not a purely civilian use.  The NIE's definitions are arbitrary and nonsensical.

None of the intelligence sources on which this report is based have been made public.

An intelligence report with a terrible track record publishes a report that is contradicted by its own past reports and by the assesments of superior intelligence agencies and by the assesments of international monitors and bases this report on sources that are not disclosed to us and uses definitions that are erroneous to make a misleading distinction between "military" and "civilian" uses of nuclear technology.

Forgive me if I am not reassured.

[The Duke]

The IAEA confirmed that Iran now has 3,000 centrifuges at Natanz, though there is dispute over how many are as yet online.  El baradei confirmed that 2,000 pf the centrifuges are already operational.  Link below.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/09/02/AR2007090200415.html

Also, El Baradei's agreement with the NIE report is to be viewed with some skepticism.  He once said, "I have no brief other than to make sure we don't go into another war or that we go crazy into killing each other. You do not want to give additional argument to new crazies who say, 'Let's go and bomb Iran.'"  Dr. El Baradei's views are to be taken with a grain of salt, which makes his confirmation of the activities at the rapidly growing enrichment facility at Natanz all the more disturbing.

As for Israel, the Jerusalem Post has the reaction of israel's leaders on the NIE.  Minister's Barak and Ben-Eliezer have some condescending and dismissive quotes that make it clear they are not presuaded by our intelligence, and their policy recommendation is essentially to ignore the NIE.

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1195546799748&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull

[The Duke]

It was revealed this morning that the primary author of this report told House Armed Services in July that Iran was still trying to build a bomb.  What was so compelling that he had to change his view in just four months?